Member Info for matherdj

I think they have 100% of the license for Nyuni now.

Any JV would be a dilution. In 5 years they could develop Nyuni from the proceeds from Ntorya. Sounds like a long time, but it's not really when you think of the gaps between previous drills. Maybe after CH1 the market cap would be big enough to allow a placing to fund some drilling of their own.

The potential for Nyuni is as big as Ntorya, but the current value must be minimal. How much would they have to farmout just for one exploration drill?

KS maybe, but needs the 3D.

Hey BG, you are right, but that doesn't deflect from the fact that the zubairs have significant influence on the direction of aminex. I dont think they are out to destroy aminex or that that was always some plan, but if PIs can take the hits along the way, then so be it from their perspective. I wouldn't be suprised to see the asset reduced by a % to them for cash. A JV is a dilution to them.

You're such a card Rojo.

What is 30% of AEX worth compared to up to 25percent of ntorya.

A merger would make sense for PI's, but not for the Zubairs. If it does happen it would be a massive signal of AEX being able to have some control over its own future.

Read a few rns for your answer Thordon.

And ARA want the commercial terms of the 25 year license agreed and I expect they would want that before any drilling happens. The government have not got a good record of speed with these things and with first gas in 2025, may not have the motivation to break the frequent habit of dragging their feet. Plenty of time to develop the field in time for first gas.

I think they only become reserves once the pipeline is built,bg.

Ufufuo, when I read that rns it seemed like scir were trying to deliver a kick to the neither regions to aex/ara. Seems a funny thing for them to say without being a joint announcement. It's been said that ARA have said they'll simply outspend SCIR by Trimme on the other board and I have no reason to doubt him. He has mentioned conversations with their former ceo that are of no benefit to him previously. A little hostility there, but good to be able to get some transparency for shareholders. I hope whoever takes the SCIR stake isn't the zubairs and is publicly listed. 1. For news flow, 2. It means any default from aex and the 25% is split between the two making it a less attractive if not inconceivable.

Yes, and the target seems to be 2025. Old news on the pipeline, but one to watch in terms of timelines.

Why is that interesting? The pipeline is to transfer oil from uganda to tanzanian ports for exports. The interesting bit is the addition of the gas pipeline to transport gas the other way. That's the 2025 part (I think).

Hi Velo, have you got any links please? I'll certainly raise this internally as best I can.

I dont think the market is valuing ntorya at the moment, more the situation aminex finds itself in with little funds to keep going until the drill. Delays are not exactly unlikely and now it's been declared first gas is 2025, seem quite possible. You can see why the government were in no rush to sign off the farmout. I dont think they'll be too much delay on the current timetable, but I doubt many would bet against at least some. If they get to the drill I hope they raise some capital on the upside if successful. They've seemed reluctant to in the past and 2025 is a long way off.

There is hope Ariel and I wish you luck. I'm just a bit suspicious of the need for them to shout prematurely.

I agree Mrc that nothing material has changed. Some positive statements, but nothing material. The 20 mil read through for ruvuma rings alarm bells when its 2.5 mil and a carry for the rest. All seems a bit rampy in combination with Malcys promotional interest. Maybe this time they will pull something out of the hat, but I'm not sure you can say 'things have changed'. They've been quiet for so long, why not wait for the coming 'months if not weeks' to announce the deal they have in the pipeline. Fingers crossed they get something across the line.

SCIR had previously stated January 22 as the target for drill so all adds up.

SCIR's rns states ruvuma is targeting first gas for 2025. Inline with my thoughts re timing for the Uganda pipeline and where the gas demand will be.

Cheese, you know full well that was a bed and ISA. Maybe get the Maverick ID out to backup your thoughts. Must have been a gap filled? Just wait for the timeline proposed and hope it doesn't get pushed out for any reason.

You mean the bed and ISA?

Cash rich, jackpack :)