The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Anyone anticipating news on Monday. Previous week we had 3 RNSs all proceeded by 1 share buys, the first 2 were the day before issue of the RNS and were internal updates, the 3rd was 2 trading days before and related to the IPF Congress so external to NFX. So both Thurs an Fri we had buys and more buys with a 1 share buy Thurs pm, if consistent 2 trading days should be external news. So two trading days before are we due;
1 no news
2 news of board appointment; or
3 002 news
4 patent news 004
Whatever hope momentum continues
To have the confidence to submit two abstracts and for them to be accepted the results must be impressive for the gate holders of the IPF congress to accept them. There is only the US and European congresses and each will protect their reputation it is acceptance by their peers that 002 has something to offer IPF.
NXP004 patent
https://patentscope.wipo.int/search/en/detail.jsf?docId=WO2022058785&_cid=P20-L5C4N5-02565-3
The society has thousands of members so this not only puts 002 in front of the majors it also promotes a solution to future prescribers of the drug. The timing is 6 months from Dans appointment so more likely in the timescale of a deal, recalling the RNS where DGs appointment was to formalise discussions.
Jiving “we don't know what the competitive position is regarding Lynparza substitutes AZ, Merck & others have in the pipeline. Presumably they have been trying to create value added follow-up drugs that can be patented prior to the Lynparza patent expiry.”
The estimate for 2028 annual sales is in excess $9bn pa if AZ/Merck don’t need 004 how many pharmas will want a share of a market exclusive for 2. Especially a U.S. pharma for th
Mgt structure has to be necessary for the job, any counterparty will not rate an over resourced structure. As far as the sp goes mgt structure has no impact, it is the sellers who drive the sp. Last two comms were good not just with info but there is a plan and a schedule. Thing is deals can drop any time they are not instant when it happens it’s not pennies so atm we are not in the closing zone in terms of timescale since DGs appointment. What is interesting despite AZ/Merck partnership with Lynparza this is irrelevant with 004 unless their agreement extends to new/ unresearched versions ..unlikely.
FX from the Rob David interview
“ And then another issue to address, final on the business development front is the mindset of the folks that you may be sitting around the table or across the table from. We’re seeing a really challenging environment for small mid-cap biotech. Science is advancing tremendously, but certainly amongst the smaller companies in the public sphere, it’s been very difficult. And the debate inevitably becomes whether or not the willingness to reach across that table and shake hands, the bid-ask spread. Has that mindset adjusted in any way? I think during the first quarter call, you had commented that you had not necessarily seen some of that shift. Tick-tock, we’re further along. Where are things at now?
Rob Davis
I would tell you that as of now the world has not meaningfully shifted from where we were. We continue to not see a meaningful change yet. We’re going to have to see what happens, obviously, as the market continues to be down and for a sustained period of time, and as cash becomes tighter for a lot of these companies, I do think it could evolve, but we’re not seeing it. I think there’s enough cash still in the system for a lot of the companies that they have time to kind of wait. So, we’ll have to see how it plays out over the rest of the year.”
Can see why a bio better 004 would help.