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I think ASL are reducing but not in the amounts people would think as there isn't the liquidity there.
They need to RNS every 0.1% they change their position (by law). They can normally procrastinate for a few days (they shouldn't but there is room to) so if they sold 0.1% you would know about it anywhere between the next day and three working days later.
As 0.1% is 162000 shares I'm suspecting they are probably only in the market to drop 50K shares or so a day in order the price doesn't tank.
That said when they sell I highly doubt they are buying back.
Good luck all
Dandelion I'm long, but I can't say this is a "solid" company until we see the results in September.
I really believe Andrew Davies is a great operational manager, and to get profit margin up above 2.5% is great. I also think their future contracts are well priced for margin. However, what I can't reconcile is how we burned through 45M in 3 months, and worryingly after the update in March of this year they all bought 10 to 15K shares which is great, but the last 3 months were exceptionally dire which infers, as they did their share buying they were caught off guard. Yes, lots of other companies were caught off guard too, but we just can't afford to lose £45M every 3 months.
What I'd like to see in September is explanation of debt, what their projections are for debt for the next 18 months, how it interacts with their covenents and what they want to do with Kier Living. On the latter I don't really care if it's not sold, as I think housebuilding is a solid business going forward. Taylor Wimpy and Crest Nicholson just released their projections for 2nd half of year and it's pretty much back to normal (Taylore Wimpy a little down - 5500 dwellings instead of 6000, but that's because of their apartment block building that you can't flood with labour due to Covid19 - they're running at 80% of staff levels there so it will elongate completion times). I have said before KL is a good little business, although as others said it's capital intensive without a joint venture with a Council, so when you are in debt up to your eyeballs it's best to sell. However, what I consider the best housebuilders are running at 55 to 65% of their pre-Covid share price. If I was AD I'd not like to sell in that environment.
Good Luck all. I certainly hope Sept 20's trading figures and business update are articulate and upbeat.
https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/costain-kier-and-motts-win-thames-water-roles-28-07-2020/
Seems as though Kier only company on BOTH roles as per
https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/costain-kier-and-motts-win-thames-water-roles-28-07-2020/
I think you are right. There are some chunky sells today. I guess an RNS from ASL in next few days will tell. When they sell I've seen anything between 0.1% and 0.5% of outstanding shares per day, but they don't do everyday
Dont believe offices are their strategy going forward. They are more into hospitals, schools, university campus, road building. All of which working from home doesnt mean much except arguably roads become less worn.
On the commercial side building offices is fraught with danger. Crest Nicholson just downgraded their office orderbook value by 32%.
Think kier are insulated from that. Also depending where in the Country, Kier living are going to do well.
I can't see this moving upwards until the issue of do they / don't they do an RI is resolved. That will probably be September this year around the official half year results announcement. I see this moving sideways until then despite Construction being an in vogue sector.
Extremely disappointed in this stock - amazed net debt has increased so much just for 3 months of Covid19. If I was Aberdeen (who own 15%) I'd be having choice words with the CEO about how on earth that happened. Meanwhile I'm now underwater in this stock :( Oh well you take your risks.
Whilst I'm surprised it's down too, perhaps it's sell on the news as the announcements were widely anticipated - this government couldn't keep a secret if it tried!
Contrast Kier with other major constructions companies like Balfour Beatty (BBY), Costain (COST), Galliford Try (GFRD), Morgan Sindall (MGNS) today and you see they're all slightly down too. BBY is the biggest Construction Company by order book, and they're flirting with break even today.
I think the catalyst for this to go up would still be a Trading Update due in 2 to 3 weeks (no announcement on their web page yet, but traditionally have done this in mid July). I don't think that update would be stellar but if it shows maybe 80% of work expected to be completed is actually completed, a bigger order book and good work done on costs then things will be good.
Also coming back to Build Build Build, it's a bit like the "Hire 20,000 policeman by Feb 2020". The country hasn't got the people to do what he's saying. It will be a slow burn, not all in one go. Boris can however get a lot going on in this parliament (4.5 years left) , which bodes well for construction company's longevity.
In Q&A with Matt Han**** just now regarding CoronaVirus, this question and answer
Alan, a member of the public, asks what infrastructure projects are at risk from the cost of the increased borrowing the government is doing.
Han**** says the government’s view is that it must accelerate infrastructure spending, not reduce it.
I suspect another seller drip feeding into the market (and no, Woodford's shares have already gone!).
Take a look at today's action as of 15:05
# Trades 160
Vol. Sold 8,844
Sold Value £8,366
Vol. Bought 438,346
Bought Value £414.68k
This is crazy. £414K buy v £8K sold yet no moving up. Crazy.
I'd suspect a GE in Dec19 creating uncertainty and Covid 19 are bigger reasons for no KL sale. You can see buyouts being cancelled all over the place due to it and wanting to find the new normal before buying something.
KL will be on the backburner for sale till then. Every month extra will reduce KL's sellable price as Kier should extract value from the business as houses complete and get added to the Kier bottom line. That obviously makes KL less attractive as less of the business left to sell.
Woodford shares were done before March.
I was going to post on this site to explain, but with 50 odd other messages it would have been drained. There aren't any woodford shares, or link fund (who took the biggest of the funds and sold it off).
I'll leave it to the next weekend to explain, but I think the two funds that took over the woodford funds (one to wind down, one to keep going) took advantage of a nominee rule where you don't need to disclose your position, as you do not have voting rights in the shares. I'll explain with a paste of the rule at the weekend.
To put into context buys v sales :-
# Trades 207
Vol. Sold 10,622
Sold Value £8,816
Vol. Bought 616,381
Bought Value £511.60k
How on earth does that work. However, I don't have L2, and I'm guessing there is really only one buyer and has a limit of 83. That is we need more buyers then it may move. I don't know who the seller(s) are. Perhaps someone with L2 can let us know how the order book looks.
However, I'm with you, how can you buy 616000 shares and only sell 11000 without the price moving.
GLA
Hello All,
I am long, but I have to say some of the people's posts here I'm not seeing evidence of.
Firstly, I don't see this share moving till sometime in June. You can expect a trading statement a few working days into July as their 1st half will be end of June. I suspect people will become more bullish the longer into June without an earnings warning.
So first the positives of this company:-
Nice market segment to work in when there is a recession
Pension obligations valued in 2019 and found to be in surplus, and whilst they won't be now their next re-val is 2022 so very likely to be in surplus again for the reval.
This company used to pay a fat wad in dividends which is now being used to pay off debt and debt management.
Has a good name in the industry
CEO used to be CEO of Wates group and he did well there
Taking a leaf out of Leo Quinn's playbook when he went to Balfour which worked really well.
Whilst there are a number of negatives (every company has them) the canary in the coal mine is the debt. Their strategy was/is to sell Kier Living, stop dividends, only go after profitable contracts (you see that already with the increased margin in their March report). But they still have lots of debt. L-O-T-S of it! They've had 2 rights issues to address this in the past 5 years, and the previous management could have resolved it by managing the dividend to pay off the debt - but sadly they didn't. Another rights issue is out of the question, and Costain just had a debacle for a £100M rights issue. Kier won't have any favours with banks and will pay market rate for the debt they're issued - something around 7% if we're lucky, otherwise more - YES , even with a BOE rate of 0.1%.
So their only play is to take on the contracts in whatever they deem their strongest markets. I suspect road and rail are them, and they'll be strong against companies as they have strength in their prelims and capital expensed items. E.g they won't be hiring out welfare cabins on the side of the road at £200 a week, but own them. This will help their margins on some big contracts against their competitors.
However when people see the headlines about Kier won this, Kier won that, remember this is a company with a circa £4Bn order book. In order to keep it up they need to win £80M per week on average to keep it going.
The question to ask yourself is are Kier managing their debt well in a very unprecedented situation. If they are then this will move north. I believe the management team they have in place are well suited to this, but it's anyone's guess as to if Kier are able to keep on track, and we won't know to late June (via a leak or missed earnings announcement) or when they do their trading update.
Fingers crossed, but it is a risky share to hold. So remember, diversify your portfolios. Keep some all world ETF's , etc, as defensive plays as well as owning this one!
Good Luck All
This came out at 17:30 today (14th May)
https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2020/05/14/thames-water-awards-first-2-6bn-amp7-lots/
Note Kier is on both lots (with other vendors) for combined value of £350M of the £2.6Bn program. Good news indeed! Seems Thames Water has lots of money to spend (although they are one of the leakiest networks).
Nice bump up on share price today after being in the Doldrums. At 16:35 someone bought 36000 shares. What I don't understand is later on someone bought 13000 for 73 pence. I'd have thought after the 36000 shares the other 13000 would have gone through for similar money.
GLA.