The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Completely agree. MM would look really stupid saying the share price is all due to manipulation and then a week later post really bad results.
And MM is not stupid. He's a money man. He's going to post great results and say "I told you so!"
@calamari - Completely agree many US tech stocks are over-valued, but THG is currently very much undervalued based on its current levels of turnover and profit (when you take out exceptionals such as investments for continued growth and their covid furlough payments which are clear in their reports).
With Homebase moving to the THG platform this year and by all accounts smashing targets, Hotel Chocolat being taken global with THG Ingenuity, signing of Matalan, China Singles Day beating the days target in the first hour of trade. It all bodes well and THG is undervalued.
@HeresHopin, agreed to an extent, but it shows also the increased shorts were taken out after a share price rally of over 35% at the back end of December. So the short positions were taken out around £2.32-£2.35 most likely and shorts are now in good profit from that increase so the buying can start. Shorts often gamble on a short term pull back after a large growth in the share price as we saw in the Santa Rally, but most of those increased positions could have already have been reduced over last weeks trading, especially considering the closed trade on Friday, and they can continue to be reduced as the share travels back up to £2.30. Hoping for an RNS tomorrow showing a reduction in short positions
MM is doubling down. He knows the company is undervalued and the results on the 18th will prove the continued company growth.
@Calamar - to say THG business is making a loss therefore it's bad is really strange. THG has been growing at around 30% per year for the last 5 years and has been re-investing it's profits into future growth and has had the support of major backers. Tesla didn't make a profit for a number of years and was also heavily shorted, but now there are loads of "Tesla Millionaires" due to the size of the share price rise. The same is coming for THG. There are so many brands wanting to sell direct to the consumer globally, reducing their over-reliance on Amazon, and THG Ingenuity is uniquely positioned to enable them to do this at a very low cost compared to starting up fresh.
Shares on loan have reduced from £110m last weekend to £97m according to this weekend's article vs last week's. So shorts have been reducing their positions in the last week. There were 6.5m shares traded in a closed deal on Friday so it would not impact the open market pricing, likely because the shorts don't want to highlight any more that they have been impacting the price, and this probably brought the shares on loan to about £80m (but this was probably not picked up in the article). MM has gone to the FCA, giving evidence for short attacks and highlighting the company is undervalued. Linked in posts highlighted targets being smashed in October and November, and highlighted record performances in China and Australia and for Black Friday period sales. Put all these things together means the shorts are getting concerned over being caught out and the share price is about to rocket.
This all just gives me more confidence that THG will bounce big at some point soon. They just wanted to push the price down as much as possible to maximize the long term jump to come.
No wonder the major volume trading was taken private on Friday and the shorts have reduce £12m in the last week. Getting nervous of FCA? 6 days to reduce £90-£97m stocks on loan if that is the new plan? About 8m shares a day which is certainly possible, but I think they will really struggle to cover all that volume below £2.00
I see good news in that article. Compare the two articles from this week and last week.
Last week he said there was £110m stock on loan for THG. This week he said £97m.
So shorts have reduced positions during last week. What I'm not sure of is does his £97m include the £12m off-the-books trade of 6.5m which we saw go through on ADVFN on Friday afternoon.
It would be nice to see if this is Cube reducing their short again through an RNS on Monday morning, or we see an RNS showing BlackRock increasing their stock position by acquiring back their loan stocks we believe they lent out on 7th December (following the RNS 8th December).
Cheers guys. We need to keep being positive I think to put the pressure on the shorters.
It's been all doom and gloom the last few days and we all understand it's been tough.
Longs need to keep our chins up and keep giving confidence to new investors coming to this chat room.
I'm not talking about ramping. But trying to keep to the facts around the positive potential of THG and what we see in the company as long term investors. We need the support of new investors and personally I hope a lot of new retail investors get in at this stage for their benefit. (I could be wrong like I said before, but I do believe in the long term bull case for THG)
fre1, sadly those buys are basically mainly off book trades which happened during today which ADVFN don't get an automatic feed on. So any trade price above the UT reports as a buy, and any trade price below the UT reports as a sell.
That said, 1.5m of shares traded off of ADVFN's books which went through today is quite a significant volume. Probably Goldman helping out the shorts again... Hopefully there will be less tomorrow and a blue day tomorrow.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/clarejohnson18_careers-at-thg-make-your-next-move-activity-6884801125929795584-wTxs
"Here at THG we are growing at an exponential rate and have some incredible opportunities in our Finance division. Just a snapshot of the opportunities we have at the moment;..."
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/thg-ingenuity_elemis-case-study-activity-6884847578932899840-EwYR
Last year British beauty retailer, ELEMIS, partnered with THG Ingenuity to accelerate their DTC channel in global markets.
Sean Harrington, Co-Founder and CEO at Elemis & Executive Director at L’Occitane International commented on how Ingenuity helped the company expand globally:
"A game changer in speed and cost efficiency to market; service to end customers, and delivering the dream of Elemis.com in a box globally, profitably and successfully.”
Click here to read the full case study: https://lnkd.in/e_aQ2twE
Clearly a targeted attack on Online businesses today.
From my watchlist
THG -6.77%
BOO -6.81%
Just Eat -6.39%
Asos -6.08%
Wise Pay -5.74%
Experian -5%
Aveva -4.6% (indsutrial software, not the insurer)
RELX -4.51%
Very few doing well, banks, travel industry, insurance seem ok.
I'll probably be wrong, but I'm sure the buy switch will be turned on soon, something like yesterday. Not saying I think we'll end green today, but I'm sure maybe down -2% or higher at the close. I think the shorts will need to start buying up.
Fingers crossed anyway.
GLA
Hi OxfordBull, Apologies, you may be correct. John Gallemore in the THG Webcast Ingenuity stated they have pipeline for 400 by the end of 2022 which was a cautious number and he thought it would be more likely be above 450, but I guess he could have included 2021 pipeline in that number.
THG Ingenuity Presentation taken from their investor relations pages states as follows:-
"Visibility on Q4 FY22 ARR of £112m assuming 400 live sites at the end of FY22 with consistent recurring revenue per site and recurring revenue of 60%.
? SoftBank option illustration: assuming 60% recurring sales mix from 600 sites live by the end of 2023 (£170,000 revenue/site) and a 4% revenue-share on £2.5bn GMV from Beauty & Nutrition, then Ingenuity Commerce revenues annualise at £270m in FY23 vs £4.5bn option price."