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Urban,
It's a point a see of little relevance. Key sentence "predicting deficits later in the decade". Later in the decade could be 5 years away...
Plus, don't forget, the Hainan/KOD deal was struck in April 2023. In December 2022, KOD told the market "we don't need a fund raise". This almost certainly hints that they were talking to Hainan in December 2022. This is precisely when Lithium was at it's parabolic highest. You can be absolutely certain that Hainan would have lowered their offer if it were struck today, versus 6-12 months ago.
Hainan offered KOD money at 0.50p share in a red hot lithium environment. The share price is 40% higher than this, is a much less attractive CURRENT climate.
Mafee,
It seems you still don't understand how to play the risk/reward game that is the markets, from this paragraph here:
"You say you'd be happy with 30%, you say the share price will go to 0.9p - thats 28.5% right there if you were to buy now. Yet you instead would rather wait for it to spike and gamble on a pull back for the same return?"
I said the price 'MIGHT' get to 0.90p, it 'MIGHT' not. By going long before news, I am opening myself up to lots of variables:
- Will the news come in 2 days, 2 weeks, or 6 months (and counting).
- Will the price retrace after that buy
- Will the macro environment change in that time (There are currently two active wars which could escalate)
- Could there be a military coup in Mali
- Etc etc
I am not looking to gamble on a long in the hope of a rise, by doing that, I have to hope that the positive news comes and that it causes the share price to react in a way that i HOPE it will.
I am therefore waiting until news arrives, that way, events have already happened, I can see the price action, I can see the trading reaction, I am plotting against knowns.
When dealing with large sums of money, you don't gamble with hope.
Mercedes,
Your general fragility when someone dare to raise some objective points, along with your generally distasteful approach (Mr Watts), says much more about you, than it does me.
Someone entirely comfortable with their investment would not get as incredibly defensive as you have. That is pertinent.
The sensible posters on here will notice that. However, I also understand people will have large sums of money in here, and thus their cheerleader Mercedes will be supported no end.
As mentioned previously, a higher share price is preferable in the short term. So ramp away Mercedes.
Mafee,
Fair questions, I’ll give my view, would be interesting to hear yours also.
1) How high will the share price go on anticipation of news?
I think the share price will bobble around until news. On news, I fully expect the market makers to really push the stock up, maybe towards the 0.9p level, where it may meet technical resistance/profit taking.
2) How low will the share price drop on the day of the news?
On the day of news? I’m not expecting it to drop on the day of news, I expect it will be up substantially. My aim will be to open a short position at the peak/spike of that rise. That can only be assessed by reading the book on the day. I expect the spike will be on the day of news. 0.9p or so will be my guess. (But higher would be brilliant)
3) How low do you expect it to go after that (your closing position point) and how long will it take to get there
I don’t aim to have a fixed % gain, I mainly trade the book. My gut feel is that over the week that follows news it could easily retrace 10-15% from the spike. Over the following weeks I think it could comfortably drop 25-30% from the spike.
If I close my position and make 30% over 2-4 weeks I’ll be moderately pleased.
Anyone with any sense could ascertain from my responses above that I do not have a current short position, why on earth would I talk the stock up if so.
Some learning for the lemmings.
The lithium price over the last 52 weeks has fallen nearly 75%
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lithium
The Seven LARGEST lithium producers in the world are listed below (largest to smallest), along with their 52 week share price performance.
(https://investingnews.com/amp/top-lithium-producers-2655226460)
1. Albemarle - Down 55%
2. SQM - Down 48%
3. Ganfeng - Down 52%
4. Tianqi - Down NA - Failed operations
5. Pilbara - Down 29%
6. Mineral Resources - Down 19%
7. Allkem - Down 36%
Do you spot the theme? Lithium massively peaked a year ago, and the LARGEST lithium producers in the world have all suffered from horrific reductions in their valuation.
Now for KOD over the last 52 weeks…
Up 120%
Spot the outlier.
The hype is keeping this up this high. There is LOTS of hot air to coke out yet.
But, until then, 1.5p to 2.0p on news, so says twitter
Mercedes,
By all means, in fact I’d actively encourage it. The resulting litigation from Mr Watts’ lawyers for the slander of his name/company on a public forum might help my short when you have to sell some KOD to pay for it!
mercedes,
it’s genuinely not me. if it was, i’d be reporting it, as giving personal details out a public forum it a litigation level offence.
as it is, it means nothing to me, so i won’t be reporting it.
if mr watts gets a **** on his doorstep and happens to stumble across you posting his details on a public forum, you best lawyer up sunny.
Mercedes,
Again, lols, your humour matches your knowledge of the markets.
Albeit I hate to break it to you, Mr Watts is not I. It does though explain why a furious poster on the RCGH board was insisting I had recently divorced, I didn't have the foggiest what he was talking about. Seems he'd been sleuthing on Mr Watts.
Add RCGH to the list of shares that I called out, that one between 140p to 160p. It now sits at 15p around 12 weeks later, that's a 90% loss. All in my posting history to see. I also took some serious stick on that board when I called it overvalued.
Go figure.
Right, 1.5p to 2p for KOD, so twitter says
Mafee,
For reference, if you are net flat, you are neither long, or short. That should help you with your other queries.
The higher this goes before the carrot lands, the more it falls when the hot money leaves.
It is quite funny seeing each bulletin board have their own heroes, their company is always the one that will not succumb to inevitable market mechanics.
The SAR board at 105p, the VRS board at 6p, the MIRI board at 6p, the TERN board at 9p, PREM board at 1.00p.
Proof is in the pudding, have a look at the share prices of the shares mentioned above now (versus the prices at which I predicted a fall based on market mechanics, listed above)
But KOD will be different, of course.
Right, 1.5p to 2.0p on news twitter said.
Elco,
Bubble to burst was a bit strong. Euphoria to die down, and the share price to drift, would be more apt.
Using theoretical/mathematical ideas of future profits is straight out of the inexperienced retail investor playbook. That’s just not how the market values things currently, there are HUGE miners with HUGE dividends on very small PE ratios currently.
Until then. What did Twitter say, 1-2p on news?
Mafee,
Net flat at the minute, let the pump commence.
Primed and ready for the balloon to burst within 12-24 hours of the 'big' RNS.
Mercedes bullish tones will be like a harp playing in ones ear for the next couple of days/weeks until the news lands.
The more hot money in the better, traders trade, chasers chase, chancers chance. The thing they all have in common, the sell on news.
Back on topic, 1.5p to 2.0p on news I read on twitter.
Mercedes,
Lols. Every experienced investor started off just like you, convinced they’d found the portfolio maker, the holy grail.
It’s pleasant to see such enthusiasm, but once you’ve been battle hardened a little more, you may just cringe a smidgen as you look back at your former self.
This is a £30-40k trade, I’d hope to be in and out in a few weeks. It’s far from a portfolio maker, it’s merely a short term trade, without the jurisdictional and operational risk of holding and hoping that everything comes together.
Keep up the positive chatter in the interim, higher the better. Appreciated.
Mercedes,
Gold star for calculating that I seek out overhyped, and overvalued companies as there are often extremely profitable trades because of such mechanics.
Why don’t you go one step further and highlight your findings of the various share price before and after I highlighted them.
I’ll give you a clue, they were all exceptionally profitable trades, as I expect the trade at KOD to be, hence, get this higher by all means.
Mercedes,
Follow the HZM story for the last 3 years to understand that simply achieving a funding package doesn’t equal a rising share price.
HZM has a mega partner in Glencore (much, much bigger than Hainan is), it is funding partners from some biggest banks in the world…
Yet, its share price is a fraction of what it even was six months ago.
Of course you have rode tinted glasses, so KOD will simply not have any operational difficulties, right 😁
MattSlim,
I’d prefer the share price to be much higher, so in that sense we’re both peddling from the same place currently.
Daz, sensible post.
The post news lull/sell off is precisely correct. Funnily enough, the chaps when PREM was 1p said they’d be happy waiting for 2-10p etc etc.
Understanding Market mechanics beats simply buying and holding, especially in this bear market.
We’ll see who is right, but yes, in the meantime, get this as much above the 0.5p funding as possible, thanks!
I was on this bulletin board 3-6 months ago (I forget), sharing my view that the share price would definitely reduce on finalisation of the deal. The simple fact that once the carrot that is the finance completion is removed, the traders, speculators, chancers will move on.
The share price was 0.9p at the time, the locals here went berserk, and said I couldn’t be more wrong. Well, the share price dropped by 50% from that point.
The latest buzz/hype has lifted the share price, but I reiterate what I said previously:
This will spike on the news of completed funds. Then it will sell off, and drift and likely retrace back to somewhere around 0.55 - 0.6p (this is a part 0.5p placing remember).
For reference, ARCM signed a JV with mining behemoth Anglo American, their price spiked to 8p in March 2021. They closed that deal on Friday just gone. It hit 4.2p and then sold off.
KOD’s 8p ARCM moment has been and gone when it was 0.9p.
Good luck here, it will be a cracking project in 1-2 years, just don’t get caught up in the hype on news day.
Dorset,
The two identical trades will be a transfer, likely to an ISA or such like.
The 100k you labelled as a sell is a buy (in my view, hey look at me sticking up for the bulls)
My guess is it’s some more fine work from Shepherd.
On the downside, the large buy today couldn’t do anything to lift the share price.
More Riverfort shares to land next week. The ‘spiral’ will continue.
Pleb they had ~£4m end of August, with cash coming from the noted recent divestment upon completion.
Simple case of differing opinions, which is a market. I predominantly short in this market, often targeting companies low on cash and in apparent need to raise funds. I am not doing that here, I’ve added between 9.5p and 10p and I am very comfortable.
If you’d not so already, I’d call up your broker and get some borrow, satisfy your concerns with some money down.
Quick look back Pleb's posting history shows he aims to be generally irritable. The comment on ECO today was a lazy, ill thought out attempt.
Clearly if there was a fundraise, the three different Directors, including the CEO would have simply taken part in Pleb's fictional fundraise instead.
The fact three Directors have bought in the last week is a robust indicator of value.
Lazy work, must try harder, D-.