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Not yet! Convinced that VOG will only survive if the 'now' drilling (is rig even on site? ) gives results. The potential is huge (like the unconstrained demand of 150mscuffs/day touted by KF!!). Good results = good gas = LNG = Europe? and integrate RSM or pay them off assuming financing can be sourced?
As a reminder from AFEX site, co-owner of Matanda - note have only firmed up 16% of the site:
In 2011 and 2014 ERCL, an independent specialist in upstream oil and gas consultancy, reviewed Glencore’s estimates of resources for the North Matanda Field and concluded that the P50 “gas-in-place” volume of 1,864 Bcf with “condensate-in-place” of 136 mmbbl were valid estimates for the area within the limits of the 3D seismic survey (note this is only 16% of the total area of the Matanda Block). ERCL also concluded that the North Matanda Field and the Logbaba Field are part of the same structure, now named the “Matanda – Logbaba Structure”, and that the reservoirs are likely to extend over a significant area outside of the limits of the 3D survey, making the North Matanda Field potentially one of the largest wet gas accumulations in West Africa.
Probably down to a pipeline network, and Eneo not paying our bills. If GDC aren't powering the grid, who is and with what? HFO I assume. Also pondering any culpability on the royalty payments etc - how did that get past accountants??
Why not. VOGs outcomes at present range from: 1. 'cease trading' 2.sell a bit/lot of Logbaba to RSM/Increase % of take and wobble on, with probably slow company erosion 3.Assuming drilling is going on in Matanda, then massive upside given gas prices/market and ideally perhaps farming in RSM as part of the debt settlement.4. As 3. with LNG entering the fray and less/no reliance on the 'huge local market'. Sp from zero to 'pick a figure'...hopefully above zero!
RE: idle musings on address change etc30 Jun 2022 10:16
Morning. VOG have very options left. Creating extra shares/placement will achieve nothing from a running the business point of view - and who would buy them. Loans option a dead end too - can't service the interest at present and very little/no security. So we are left with assets which if all sold would I suspect give a nice positive balance. To stay in business as aid I am hoping that Matanda is the key. We have been told a drill rig is I assume now in situ from Chad. If reserves can be proved then RSM may well take a stake in lieu of part/all litigation or could be sold to a JV/Dangote etc. Last chance saloon! IF this does occur VOG could come out of this very well in my opinion - last skeleton put to rest, new reserves in a market desperate for gas/energy and AFEX and RSM in situ to shoulder part of the explo costs and no /less reliance on the current reserves and piped clients and all of the 'will they ever happen and where's the cash to do it' Cam gov energy plans. Happy digging Roy!
idle musings on address change etc28 Jun 2022 15:08
The offices are now at Scott House, Suite 1, The Concourse, Waterloo Station, London SE1 7LY, - still advertised at £3250/m on LONG TERM let basis. Hence breakage fees. Strange behaviour for a company with 'issues'. Also Hadron waiving a could have been paid debt payment (VOG should have some cash at bank from drill cost raise) and having exercisable options Strange behaviour for an investor in a company with 'issues'. Hoping tis is pointing to some good drill results and RSM coming on board perhaps at Matanda in lieu of litigation settlement - would you want to be locked out of a gas reserve on your doorstep that could be in competition to your stranded gas asset?. Or ...just idle musings!
Morning. Give the RSM 'debt' wondering why Roy is still progressing the Matanda drill and ensuing expense? Hadron have waived a loan repayment - why? Beginning to think that VOGs future or lack of it hangs on the Matanda license and the drill results. Good results then bargaining chip with RSM to either come on board (if not Logbaba would be a stranded asset potentially) or an asset to JV/sell given the current and likely future reliance on non Russian sourced energy. Time will tell.
Whoever owns Matanda can bypass logbaba and RSM and their cut. VOG could for arguments sell Matanda to Dangote, other oily etc and RSM get logbaba/processing plant. Or RSM can take a stake in Matanda as a JV partner as they are in logbaba and derisk another gas providing asset. The current mcap is share price derived. Not Enterprise/breakup/P' assets/value priced. Given RSM sued the Cam gov some years ago and VOG seems to have a 'decent' relationship with RSM now and SNH/Cam gov/ENEO the above would seem quite a good option for all parties. If I own a £1m office block and can't pay my milk bill for a £1, I am insolvent - doesn't mean the milkman gets the whole office block.
Probably in denial, but assuming RSM see a point in accomodating vog/gdc then if I were them I would be swapping the debt fir a decent chunk of the matanda license, which they currently have no control or input to. I've always thought that this could have been an easy way of VOG bypassing any RSM share of revenue assuming gas is found. See how it all pans out though. Also hadron et Al will forfeit all share value, options and unsecured loans if vog fail. If they bail vog out, then if this legacy issue can be reconciled would suspect a rapid SP rise which would profit them extremely. As ever ..never a dull moment! GLA
Who knows - just under the 3% for a TR1 notice unless an existing holder (Differing rules for UK/offshore) - Expect the latter - can't see a 'newbie' picking up that amount via an MM order that's been filled over days/weeks. May have been an institiuton shifting between funds, and we haven't seen the matching sell yet. Stranger things have happened tho!
POO/POG rising with global demand like the clappers, £1m raised via an existing shareholder - one year term to be repaid - assumes some confidence or you could argue dilution if options exercised, Matanda progressing we assume , WM fully impaired already and now looks like not enough power in Cam. Hope arbi comes in soon with a VOG positive and that Matanda spews out the necessary.
More recent news on this in an RNS - Kemerkol - time wandering as usual but given covid, kazak unrest etc not surprised.
At the end of December 2020, VOG notified the Republic of Kazakhstan of its intention, failing an amicable settlement with the Government, to commence an investment arbitration under the Energy Charter Treaty. VOG has retained counsel and the arbitration is fully funded by specialist disputes funder Therium. The dispute arises out of a series of actions and omissions by the Government and its courts which ultimately deprived VOG of the value of its investment in the Kemerkol oil field located in Atyrau Oblast. After investing over US$35 million into the Kemerkol Field, Kazakhstan invalidated VOG's rights to the Kemerkol Field, seized assets on site, and VOG was forced to suspend oil production in June 2008. In the event the Parties are unable to make concrete progress towards resolving their dispute amicably by the end of May 2021, VOG will commence proceedings. Kemerkol was fully impaired in VOG's accounts in 2009.
Update due soon. Assume next week if not fashionably late. Ranging from matanda update with lots if juicy targets, dangote wading in, sale of West end done. Probability of just one of these 5%. More if VOG plodding on, but no cash needed, no real news 90% maybe a new hook up, then 1% per arbi, kem update moving, Bekoko et al, Eneo reconnecting and a small cash raise etc. Hope to be surprised!!
Dunno! I was anticipate most of these being addressed in 2022 in one way or another . I am now working on every day with no RNS as a day nearer an RNS! prefer a more regular stream of these rather than in ' all in one' too. There's also reporting and updates to come that may shed light. Juist a case of patience and a degree of finger crossing. As said, each 'new item' can go from 'good to bad' rapidly!