RE: Valuation17 Oct 2020 13:12
They're sticking to the figures they know and have a historic publicly announced value attached. It's where the $2bn figure comes from. PFS has been done on NKT fairly recently, which is part of the flanks, that adds substantial value. But, exact resource figures from that PFS have not been released to us. Historically the whole area has been explored to a certain extent and Eurasia now have access to all the data. It's what makes things like 'exploration license' a bit of a red herring, because the areas have already been explored to a certain degree, even by Eurasia themselves back in Anglo JV days. If you want to try and value, then use the ACF report, but adjust things for MT flanks landing, Tipil landing etc.
The 40Moz is the big carrot that has been dangled to any buyer, but, as you've rightly pointed out, we currently have legal exclusivity over 22Moz. It is what we have legal exclusivity to and what can be proved via exploration data, which will have value attached imho. Even the 7Moz on top of the 15Moz is tough to try and place any value on it simply because we don't have any license over the resource, but, we know we have legal exclusivity to it.
It's a very tricky asset to try and value, but, we have projected production targets for both MT and WK, so you can use those to create a valuation to a certain degree.
GLA