Member Info for LTbeliever

@SMeister, I think a takeover is unlikely as 10p would be too low a price for the current Mgt and main Shareholders;

At 10p it'd be valued at "only" 46mln; as per the below RNS, Mgt has options kicking in between 10p and 30p in just 30 months!

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/APTA/grant-of-options-and-related-party-transaction-xwwn5v0qnvkfijm.html

Plus, a buyer could have bought a lot cheaper back in the summer 2023 when cash was almost zero - IMO

We still need a couple of material RNSs to put a floor under the SP, but it's extremely likely we will get those in the next 1-2 months.

Encouraging to see a steady upwards movement; it shows long term players are building their stake, in anticipation of things ot come, and should discourage shorters. Remember that Mgt options kick in above 4p in September.

A fitting end to a great week!

Shows the potential and how quickly it can rise, once we have a couple of RNSs with good numbers.

Main thing is that optimism has returned; everyone already knew that the technology is worth a lot more and that agreements will be signed these next few months;

The only uncertainty is timing and size of cash flows but we are covered until November, in a worst - unlikely - scenario of zero deals by then.

And if the SP recovers to 2-3p by then, on the back of RNSs announced, then on a mkt cap of 10-15mill a fund raise of 1-2 million will not be an issue. IMO

Despite the SP not rising much, the huge volumes traded today have enabled some short term speculators to exit, meaning that the next leg up will be more solid. IMO

I agree; let's remember that Mkt cap at IPO was 80mln and based on not so far-fetched projections; Mgt Options kicking in (in the money) at 4p by Sept 2024 (release of AFS2024) indicates that Mgt consider a minimum Mkt cap of 20mln quite realistic, in just over 6 months from today.

Even at the event that the SP will close today at around these levels, maybe even a bit lower if there is some profit taking later, what's important is that:

1. the Co has plenty more similar RNSs to release in the next few weeks/months;

2. the despondency by some shareholders should start dissipating;

3. the risk of any dilution will keep dropping, the more of these RNSs are released.

GLA

And one last point re potential future funding needs and any associated dilution;

Needing to raise 1million in say, 8-9 months (worst case scenario and highly unlikely) at a Mkt cap of 2mln is a lot different than raising 1 million at a Mkt cap of 5mln (20%) i.e. an SP of just 1p (very conservative IMO).

We also need to remember that, just a few months ago, after the Co almost run out of cash, the Management had to produce new revised projections; it is logical to assume that these were more conservative that pre-IPO, and more realistic.

Based on those projections the Co managed to obtain the new funding but also note the Share option scheme put in place and especially the SP targets set for each Year, from 2025 onwards; 50p estimate in 3 years!

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/APTA/grant-of-options-and-related-party-transaction-xwwn5v0qnvkfijm.html

The new options will have an exercise price of 1p, which is equal to the price at which the Company's fundraise was completed in July/August of this year. "The new options will be subject to stretching performance targets as follows:

(i) 16 per cent, on announcement of FY24 audited results in line with expectations and the share price having remained at or above 4 times the issue price for at least 3 months;

(ii) 24 per cent, on announcement of FY25 audited results in line with expectations and the share price having remained at or above 7 times the issue price for at least 3 months;

(iii) 40 per cent, on announcement of FY26 audited results in line with expectations and the share price having remained at or above 10 times the issue price for at least 3 months;

(iv) 10 per cent, on announcement of FY26 audited results in line with expectations and the share price having remained at or above 30 times the issue price for at least 3 months; and

(v) 10 per cent, on announcement of FY26 audited results in line with expectations and the share price having remained at or above 50 times the issue price for at least 3 months."

Where deals may come from (as per FY23 Operational Highlights):

· Contracts signed with a top five pharmaceutical company to develop multiple Optimer® binders as immunohistochemistry (IHC) reagents to support pipeline development and early discovery targets (Jul 2022)

· Partnership to develop Optimer® therapeutics to block the activity of naturally occurring antibodies within the body for use as a potential therapy to prevent transplant rejection. (Nov 2022)

· Multiple deals signed with Novavax, a vaccine developer for respiratory diseases, who require Optimer® binders to improve the selectivity of their Quality Control (QC) assays (Nov 2022)

· Multiple deals signed (and expanded) with a multinational consumer goods company for Optimer® binders supporting the development of novel direct-to-consumer personal care products (Jan 2023)

· Partnership with a developer of custom enzymes based in Asia for Optimer® binders to incorporate into a biosensor for convenient monitoring of the company's manufacturing processes (Jan 2023)

· Deal signed with Basecure Therapeutics to identify cell-targeting Optimer® binders for potential as targeted delivery vehicles for siRNA (Jan 2023)

· Optimer®-Fc tools launched to enable immunohistochemistry research and diagnostic workflows (Mar 2023)

· Patent filed in a collaborative project with NeuroBio to support early diagnostics for Alzheimer's disease (Jun 2023)

Post-period end - A follow-on deal with a US-based vaccine development company to develop Optimer® binders as QC reagents (Jul 2023); MY COMMENT --- Novavax? maybe a follow-on to the Nov 22 collaboration, so about 18 months to test/verify APTA technology, indicating possibly more collaborations to be announced based on 2022 and early 2023 deals (IMO).

IMO of course, as a new investor (so consider me biased); some reasons why I believe this;

a lot of despondency and negativity here, with non-stop talk of a fund raise at 0.50p; not many people left to SEll, probably; Directors not buying (IMO) because the focus is on operational turnaround, especially since so much Mgt effort was wasted in the raise of a few months ago; in Nov's presentation Mgt stated a 285k pm cash burn, and cash available to Oct.24 without fresh sales; 2.1mln cash end of Jan implies enough for 7 months (i.e. Aug.24); plus, assuming Gross Revenues of 1mln from sales of 2-2.5mln to Y/e, gives us another 3months, so cash enough to Nov.24.

What's more likely? Zero sales/income from today until November, or sales to slowly increase until then? That's a guess but I err on the optimistic side.

APTA has great technology (valued at zero by the Mkt today) and, more importantly, significant relationships built over the last 2-3 years with lots of important clients (big and small); if you look at the RNSs of the past 2 years, there are various ongoing projects, some leading (or should lead) to repeat business or new revenue sources (sooner or later);

In summary, Mgt has 7-8 months to focus on the turnaround and during this period, it should take(IMO) just 2-3 good RNSs for the SP to escape this bottom (or near bottom). Yes, (further) dilution risk is real but not so likely IMO.

GLA and be patient, we have a few more nervous weeks until things get better.

They did say "end of April", which may explain the hiatus; but hopefully, we will have news about the EPC before then, maybe even regarding DX?

Many thanks for both your views, Porky and ARich, all very useful; yes, indeed a high risk binary bet, lots of potential but low on cash and time for turnaround.

Mkt cap is roughly equal to the (rapidly dwindling) cash, biggest risk is further dilution - IMO - in 5-6 months.

Hi all, I'm thinking to take the plunge soon, I'd appreciate if any of the existing holders could clarify the below please:

"Company expects to progress the £1.4m of signed work and a proportion of the additional £1.5m of advanced stage sales pipeline before the end of the financial year".

Does the above mean that the Co will probably collect the 1.4mln by June, plus -say - 0.5-1mln of the rest, i.e. 2-2.5 mln by June? If yes, does this also mean that between now and June it may also manage to make some extra cash from new sales (or not, due to time needed to convert sales into cash?)?

Also, it seems that 2mln cash (appx) was burned during the prior 6 months (31 July-31 Jan), could one reasonably assume that cash burn was higher until October - when downsizing was completed - and therefore, monthly cash burn should be lower now? Say 250k pm?

All comments welcome.

As per this RNS, on 31 Oct, https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/KP2/management-change-b2r4jrq5s65x9ai.html

"The process to reach agreement on Engineering, Procurement and Construction contract terms, and to receive a financing proposal for the full construction cost of the Kola Potash Project, is now near completion and is expected to be finalised during the first quarter of 2024 with construction contractors scheduled to be mobilised during the first half of 2024", we are only (thus far!) 1-2 months behind schedule (Re Q1), but this delay can be shortened IMO as we approach June 2024. In any case, if things go well, we have EPC signing in April and financing in May.

Mitch,

It's also important to remember that the project was scaled up - at the outset 5 years ago - because the 2 cornerstone investors (Oman Inv. Auth. & the Chileans) were interested in annual offtake quantities of MoP 1mln tons i.e. almost half of annual capacity; this also makes financing less risky for the banks etc. IMO

2-3 months of more negotiations, before signing; at least the RNS did not mention any issues with the Proposal, nor the final cost.

More time to average down?

I hope by Friday, before the Chinese New Year holiday kicks in; RNS about, at least, receiving the EPC.

GLA!

And then this one, in 2022, which talked about "issues" with the freshly received EPC;

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/KP2/kola-construction-contract-and-financing-update-pyucll7ftlsq7rb.html

So it seems that an RNS will be issued, maybe not straightaway but soon after receipt, telling us if the EPC is acceptable or not.