Member Info for LTbeliever

Just bought 375k but it should appear as a SELL at 0.624, given that all BUYS at 0.624 appear as such.

Let's see in 2 days if the Mgt will manage to assuage the Mkt about the cash position.

GLA!

They have 5 weeks to deliver the signed EPC, then 6 weeks max for the finance. Let's see how the Mkt reacts then.

It's positive then, that 6 weeks have elapsed since the last "extension", without any more delays announced!

That too, sure, given that they expected the EPC signing by end January and now it's expected at April end.

IMO, this is very positive; the Broker marked the SP down as a precaution, it will recover by next week. We knew that the Co has to raise more funds as a condition of the deal with the Chinese, anyway, so this is not a surprise. Also, the big holders are investing more cash in preparation for the EPC signing, this has to be a plus. Some key points from the RNS:

1. "The net proceeds from the CLNs will be used to further advance work that is expected to lead to the signing of an EPC contract for the Kola Potash Project, as announced by the Company on 9 February 2024, and provide working capital for Kore Potash."

2."There are no broking fees incurred in respect of this Fundraise."

3."Company will issue 109,865,053 new Ordinary Shares"; on 4.12 bln, this is a 2% dilution!

4. "it is the intention of David Hathorn, Chairman, to subscribe for new ordinary shares of the Company for a consideration of US$ 150,000 as soon as practicable following the notification of the Results on the same terms as the Fundraise"

5."Harlequin Investments Ltd ("Harlequin") is a substantial shareholder of the Company, holding 12.33% of the Company's issued share capital prior to the Fundraise, and has agreed to subscribe for CLNS to the value of US$ 200,000,"

This explains the gradual drop to 0.50p; More news, hopefully on the 28th March. At least we know that the Shareholders are willing to put their money in.

Good one, 99.

Exactly, if it happens, it's de-risked so all target prices are conservative. Plus, Mkt cap was 100mln6 years ago, just on the potential of the Kola concession.

The below extract is from a June 2020 Research Note on KORE, by ALIGN; obviously things are different now but the extract I copy assumed that DX would be financed first, making then things easier for KOLA (you can find it on KORE's website, under Research Notes).

"It has to be pointed out that once the finance has been successfully raised for getting DX into production, then our valuation for the company is likely to change substantially. With DX going into production we would substantially reduce our risking of the project from 65% to just 10%. DX is seen to unlock the whole district play and make the financing of Kola then possible, allowing us to consequently reduce our risking of this project from 85% to 55% which more befits a project at the DFS stage which is development ready. Using the attributable NPV(12) figures employed earlier, the valuation for the company on this basis would be US$500.33 million. We estimate that at that stage there is likely to be 4,686,361,624 shares in issue on a fully diluted basis post raising the equity portion of the funding for the pre-production capital expenditure at DX and which would equate to 8.41p per share."

So, 4 years ago they almost got the Shares' number correct; for me, more important is the valuation at USD500mln or GBP400mln (appx) WHEN KOLA is up and running; even at a 50% risk discounting, that would still give a £200 mln valuation (roughly equal to all the money spent so far on developing Kola). Maybe this is wishful thinking, but I think everyone understands the potential, IF things proceed smoothly.

All IMO, we will know in a few more weeks if optimism is justified.

Tnx for the correction, even better! at £0.11 it means the mkt cap was almost £100mln i.e. 5x today's. Book value is even higher, about 8-9x. April-May will be interesting months, if things fall into place.

Plus, since 2018, another $20mln (appx) has been added onto capitalised exploration expenses - so, further Value added.

Just to liven the BB up, back in March 2018, when the Co was floated (5 years exactly!), the SP was 10p and no of shares 860mln appx; therefore the Mkt Cap was 86 million. The EPC was supposedly 1 year away (or so). Today, 5 years later, with EPC almost done, + extra Optimisation Study done, +further engineering design works by POWERCHINA, why is the Mkt cap just 20mln?

The EPC is 6 weeks away, should we expect an SP uplift when announced? And if yes, to how much? Would going back to 86mln be unreasonable to expect i.e. 4-5x uplift?

All comments welcome! GLA

You are right, wary is the right word. Mkt knows the potential (incl. Unilever) BUT they want to see numbers and cash flowing in; hopefully, we will get these soon.

Plus, I don't understand people's (genuine?) fears about a fund raise; Co has cash until December, in a worst case scenario, by then a lot more deals will be announced, more projects will be closer to fruition etc, hence it's logical to assume that the SP will be higher; even if at 2-3p (IMO, conservative), the Mkt cap will be over 10 mln so even a 1mln raise (remember, the Co expects 6mln Revenues for FY2024 i.e. July24-to-June25) would only be a 10% dilution.

Yes, we need some numbers; however, the Co is progressing step by step towards completing many projects simultaneously, therefore Mgt might not be too worried about the cashflow right now but instead focus on completions; plus, the highly rewarding Options' Scheme for Directors and Employees (kicking off around September for FY23 Results) probably means that they don't need to spend their cash now on Share purchases, especially if they are confident of achieving their targets.

Personally, I'd rather see Mgt focus on sales/new business/successful project completions, than have them worrying about the daily ups and downs of the SP. Another 2-3 big RNSs should make people stop worrying IMO; until then, enjoy buying at this incredible SP.

We'll get there Fboy, after a few more good RNSs, but I think it's unlikely today, especially for the stock to run out. Though I hope I am 100% wrong on this :)

David,

I agree, the SP is kept low because of the shocking events of last year and also, the lack of hard numbers in the recent RNSs.

Hopefully, the next ones will have some numbers for the Market to digest.

Good luck to you too, Iceman.

David, I partly agree with the no details part, but remember these new technologies are highly confidential and have to remain so, for Unilever to get a first-mover advantage; this has been already a 2-year project, with more to come obviously and Unilever would not partner with APTA if they had doubts about the long-term; also remember that the Co mentioned a few weeks ago about 6-8mn of medium term deals for potential closing, this could be one of them; the other being - possibly (just MO) - the top5 pharma partner for the IHC collaboration via Optimer + platform (more news maybe on Wednesday).

Iceman, nobody can time the market; just buy small lots every month and you will not get caught out.

The SP is near all time lows and there is plenty of newsflow to come in the next few months.

Iceman,

Pls read the RNSs; the Co announced end of January they had 2.1 mln cash; and in their November presentation, they specified a monthly cash burn of 285k.