Member Info for LTbeliever

So, a recap of some numbers: Current mkt cap £120mln;

floated in 2018, mkt cap of appx £100mln then; another 200mln spent in works/surveys etc over the past 6 years;

We now have the derisked EPC (fixed cost etc), much nearer to start of construction with zero political risk (RoC govt fully on board), close to zero dilution risk (tb confirmed in 2 months or so).

Conclusion- SP yet to reflect all of the above, IMO; just waiting for the financing now.

@99, still a long way to 10p (minimum); I thought I'd refresh my memory to this older thread from March,, where we had discussed the Brokers' valuation scenarios; reading again, 3x-4x uplift to the SP is quite realistic. Alas, we need to wait until the Financing RNS to get revised numbers (which IMO will probably be better).

DYOR, GLA!

IMO people were shocked and scared by the SP drop; a lot have stayed sidelined until the dust settles; once the SP stops falling (today?), it's highly likely that it will slowly resume its upwards direction; it was 4.50 just 3 days ago!

IMO there will be some SP consolidation around these levels, SP drop has been rapid and substantial; there'd be some technical support around the 200p+ as most new investors, with the big buys, came aboard around those levels; so, downside risk is not much at this SP level (maybe 15-20%), but hopefully this will be temporary; 3 months for the financing deal is the max, so we could get an RNS sooner than this.

We need to remember that many new investors (incl. those who took part in fund raisings) jumped aboard from 0.50 +, so once the RNS was out and the SP did not jump, profit taking was a good option; and selling begets more selling; fundamentals are the same, if not better, as the project has been derisked and the financing will be - 99% prob - at debt + offtake; therefore, once the dust settles (no idea at what SP) it will be an opportunity to jump in at a lower SP. IMO

Some profit taking going on, let's hope it will be over soon and the upwards move will recommence.

I think slowly over the next few days, as the Brokers update their SP projections and make these public.

Let's see what the brokers say in their updated Notes, now that the project has been substantially derisked;

Andre Baya, CEO of Kore Potash, commented:

"The entry into this EPC contract marks a significant milestone for the Kola potash project. By signing this fixed-price construction contract with one of the largest international engineering groups, the Company has minimized risks associated with cost and time overruns typical in large mining projects. The Company also believes this structure will facilitate accelerated financing and a relatively straightforward construction process, leading us to profitable production

12 pages

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02882964-6A1238443

Heading for 5p today? Only 10% from here.

IMO the main SP catalyst will be the financing in Jan, because if it's indeed offtake+ debt only (no Equity participation), then it'd make a huge difference to the project's NPV and risk profile.

I was on a trip guys but nice to see 4p hit; I reckon, if we get really "material" news by Tuesday, SP can test 6p; 1p on 3p was 33% rise (on no news), 2p on 4p is a 50% rise (on a good RNS); 1p , from 4 to 5p is only 25%; whether the SP will rise n stay over 6p that's another story (at least, before the financing is sorted).

GLA!

It's just the algorithm estimating; if the SP is lower than the mid-point of the price range, it automatically assigns it as a SELL; if you sold at just above the mid-point, it'd show it as a BUY.

I thought the drop would be bigger, TBH! All we need now is 3-4 months of calm and steady sales; once we collect some more cash from the Gulf etc, the SP 'd start recovering IMO.

Might hit 4p by Friday, b4 any RNS.

Mine 'd be operational in 4-5 years, depending on when construction starts; thus, I don't see why the Chinese 'd pay anything today for the right to operate it; but, if they bought a stake now, at Mkt price or above, this'd definitely be SP moving information; could have been tied to the long EPC negotiations, hence the big delay.

Might be connected to who owns shares via ASX (eg insiders - Chairman etc); I think the point of suspension is to prevent insider trading (whether the SP will move up or down is besides the matter), pending the RNS to come.

Johny, suspension is on ASX (up to the 20th), not AIM.

Anum, tnx for clarifying; so we'd still get RNS in AIM, referring to the ASX extension of suspension IMO; maybe not by 8am but sometime today.

In any case, ASX's Rule 17.1 states clearly that suspension can only be for max 48 hours; if they will extend this, another RNS is needed, clearly explaining why.