Member Info for LTbeliever

Smeeno, my comment relates not to the prospects (very good) but to the Share price on Day 1, post placing.
The company had about 3mln in oper. exps last year, and a GM of 50%. This implies Sales of 6mln just for B/E.
At 8 mln sales, it may have a profit of 1-2 million, so at a P/E multiple of 15-20 you have justification for a mkt capitalisation of 24 million?
If GB can get the sales from 0 to 8mln in 2 years, then maybe this SP (0.4) can be justified.

someone check my maths:
now ...0.4 @ 456mln shares = 2 mln mkt cap (cash 0.4m)

post placing... 6 bnl shares @ 0.4 = 24 mln mkt cap (cash 5.5m)
Assuming this SP holds,
1. the NEW investors will have made 300% in a day (0.4-0.1). No temptation to sell
2. Co value (ex-cash) will have risen from 1.6 mln to 18.5 mln i.e. appx 12x

So, the question is - is averting bankruptcy worth 17 mln in mkt value?

Well, a few years ago (2015?), the cap was 30 mln, before it collapsed. At a SP of 0.30 (as people buy today), the cap would equal that...hence 5m cash + 25mln potential - would this be more realistic?
3 years ago, Co had again raised 5m cash but the cap never reached 30mln.
What I am saying is that buying today at 0.30 leaves you exposed to a 50% drop post-dilution.
The new investors of course can still easily make 20-60% on Day 1, but that leaves us with big losses.

at current SP @ 456mln shares, MCap is appx 1 million. Cash <400k and falling, so one could argue that Market values the IP etc at just over 500k, right?
Post-dilution, Co has 5+ million cash + IP and the refreshed potential to exploit it (another 1-2 million?). Say Market values the Co at between 7-10 mln (best scenario?).
At 6 Billion shares, SP post dilution would be?
0.12-0.16p?

they have to give a trading update in January, whatever happens.
Delay might mean they are still in discussions about fund raising (+ve scenario), or that they are watching the iceberg on a collision course and can do nothing!

I am holding on a speculative basis as there is not much point in trying to sell at this SP.

I think it's 2 mln buys (the first 500k should be a buy, judging from the price).
Could be bottom fishing but news are way overdue, in any case! Hopefully with a Trading update.

I reckon there will be 500-600k cash left, worst case, by Dec. end.
So, time IS runnning out.
I can only see a binary outcome, either salvation with some dilution but the SP rising above current distress levels, or
game over.
Anyone sees something different in the horizon?

as long as it does not contain "dilution" but contains "fund raising"!

Co stated "first review by mid-September", so any day now we should have some news; no prediction possible I guess here but the only important development I see is the +30% rise in the bid price (from 0.40, volume 7k shares) in just a few days (to 0.55 today) WITHOUT any announcement; usually the market maker is not a charity so my wild guess is that some positive discussions are taking place. The Co has big potential BUT it's also in dire need for cash beyond the year end.
A few more days' patience.

3.25 mln shares in one go - a 19k vote of confidence - maybe an RNS in a day or two, if by a current insider

just the broker's daily obligation until the 10 days elapse, next week.

Rule 8.3 requires ALL holders with over 1% to disclose their holding within 10 Business days from the start of the process; so there will be a few more announcements by the end of next week as the significant holders readjust their holdings; so far, only one new big holder (Guiness) but they actually bought the shares a few days before the Str. Review RNS (so not sure if it was just a coincidence).
Anyway, we will have a bit more jostling next week but things will move fast in September; I guess the Co should also announce the cash position on Sept 20, probably with the Interim results and outcome of the Review.

1% is just shy of 5 mln shares, we had volumes of 30mln (buy/sells) this week. Yes, you are right but the Co has not had a placing this week. It may have in September, not earlier.

Actually, Walker Crips had held 5.89%, now down 4.78% so they sold appx 1%.

3 days ago people were " happy" to sell at 0.40, today selling at 0.80 (100% return); SP is very volatile and will continue to be so since the strategic review (and potential buyers) will take a few weeks to have clarity over the numbers to be crunched and make a fair assessment of the potential value of the co assets etc.
Therefore, people can sell out if they have a view that the co is worth 3-4 million and there is no hope, OR they can hang on for a few more weeks (Sept. 20th) when more players (eg Guiness AM is a new holder) are able to put some money in the co.
The Takeover Code (whitewashing rule) means that if someone buys more than 30% of the Co, they need not make a bid for the other 70%, so this is a huge plus for the existing big holders as they can avoid being diluted to zero by a new player; this gives everybody an incentive to find 2-3 million cash in the least dilutive way for ALL shareholders; Institutions held about 66%, now probably 70% of the Co.

Actually, 60% of volume were Buys so if someone dumped, others bought. I think this is mildly positive as it shows there are buyers at certain price levels. Of course, there are expectations for next week too, i.e. for some good news so if none are announced then the SP will be stuck. There should be news about Sales to end May (how low, we will see), and progress on ProteiniD with MIT and CPI hopefully.

From co's LinkedIn account. Might lead somewhere.
Signed up for
https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)31211-3.pdf

Go to "Victoria" to see MSYS
https://covid19-msc.org/members/

And last, but not least, the AGM (or the lack of one!). Normally, it's out of the way in May and it's the last update (excluding RNS on deals etc) on trading before the interim results, out in September normally.
I see 3 scenarios:
1. A delay purely due to CoVid (so AGM in June/July), with a trading update for Jan-May; 80% chance
2. Things are so bad that AGM is delayed on purpose; 5% chance because we are used to horrible news anyway!
3. Delay so that a positive update can be announced with the AGM; wishful thinking so a 15% chance (too high?).

Definitely, we need sales. Mgt is trying to buy time, hence the pay cuts until the SP can reach 2p or thereabouts. That's a market cap of 9mln, so a minimum cash raise of 2mln (to see us off in 2021) would mean a 20% dilution.
In any case, just guessing now, but there should be some sales in 2020, as our product is on display at the various OEM and Ditributors' websites (USA, Australia, Japan, Taiwan, Germany, UK, Thailand etc) and all of these countries are more or less out of lockdown. But even in lockdown, there is a global race to develop drugs, vaccines, tests etc so research / analysis activity has increased exponentially; there is bound to be some increased interest in our products (hopefully sooner than later!).

get them out for Xmas! By then, there should be some developments.
Some facts and numbers:
1. Virus here to stay, for another year or two
2. States are printing money like there's no tomorrow
3. Cost of cash almost zero
4. Lots more cash to go into health & medical research
5. If not directly (e.g. a grant), indirectly (through big pharma partners) some of it will flow to MSYS (when, is the big unknown).
We may avoid a fund raise in 2020 as:
Cash 2.62ml at Y/E 2019, and cash used in 2019 was 2.8ml
Tax credit due July 2020 of 300k, debtors o/s in Dec.19 of 270k, meaning 3.2mln available for whole 2020.
20% salary cuts (and furloughs) on appx 2mln annual cost = 400k saving
200k in travelling, and 200k in prof. fees, easily half of that can be reduced = 200k saving
Lease costs 400k, some office space might be released, or lease renegotiated = 50k saving?
So, conservatively, we have 3.2mln cash for 2020, and ASSUMING ZERO SALES, cash needs of 2.2mln (2.8 minus 400k minus 200k) = 1mln cash at Y/E2020
Plus, if we get 500k sales, that's another 200k cash (@40% GM), plus other potential savings e.g from lower need to stock?
CONCLUSION - we have cash to take us to end 2020, even on zero sales
BUT, we need some deals to drive the SP up and limit dilution, for when the Capital raise comes. A potential deal can come via MIT and/or CPI (project has a finite end and should yield results in a few months, including - very likely - a sponsor).
Definitely, this summer will be very interesting! Good luck, DYOR