Member Info for LTbeliever

Frix,
Notwithstanding a war between China and the US over Taiwan, I don't think it's speculative anymore as it's got 2 years of CASH ASSUMING zero sales for this period.
However, seeing the momentum building, cash should be sufficient until B/E, which I'd estimate in H1 2023.

I was looking at ETX, e-therapeutics; Revenue less than 0.5 mln, losses more than 3 mln; SP has risen 10x since Jan. 2020 and Mkt Cap is 180mln!! Meaning, a valuation of about 15x that of MSYS'.
MSYS will have Revenue of 1mln min, and losses of less than 2mln for 2021.
So, Mkt cap of 10-11mln Vs 180 mln, with better fundamentals.
This means to me (ignoring that they are not in the exactly the same line of business, in fact MSYS is more diversified and hence less risky) that the Mkt is still punishing MSYS for the repeated fund raisings and the big sellers' disposals.
However it also shows the huge potential for a quick rerating of the SP, ONCE the Mkt wakes up (in a few months, after 3-4 good RNSs) to what the Co is doing.
GLA, DYOR

It's not just MSYS delivering good news that should push the SP, it's also DVRG.
They have another 4 mln (min) of Revenues for 2021, yet to announce (GJB has confirmed the 10mln of 2021 Revenue target would be hit). Out of this 4 mln, even if just 10% is related to MSYS' units, implies another 400k of sales for MSYS by Y/E; this would take us to min 600k for H2, plus the Consumables/Service fees for H2 (another 150-200k? ).
So, for whole 2021, a Revenue figure of 1-1.3 mln.

Can anyone email the writer, David Bond, the link to MSYS' website?? :)

https://twitter.com/gjbrandon/status/1448542832940265472
The above, from last week, about "Digital Health GP Clinic real-time diagnostics coming to a clinic/bedside shortly" now makes a bit more sense. My big guess is that Cork will be producing small (and cheap) enough devices for GPs and clinics.
So, "shortly" means H2 2022.
DYOR

Thanks 308,
2 important points, I think:
1. "more newsflow in the next 6 weeks" on various fronts;
2. very important for MSYS is the "revelation" that at Cork, from April 2022, there will be production of multi-size units for water detection (eg going to schools, offices as mentioned therein); this means cheaper units, mass produced, but also lots of service fees from monitoring water pollution across many different locations.

https://mcusercontent.com/d9ebd7c1aa0f3dbc5fab42eca/files/dc79586c-9180-be32-ae0f-f189d9eac8d8/Deepvergeplc_Microsaic_Research_Update_21October2021__FINAL_BG.02.pdf

1. "With over £9m finance available at the interim stage, DeepVerge remains well-resourced to fund its planned move into high volume production of its Microtox® PD range in both China and Ireland"
If we use 10% as a ballpark figure (i.e. the proportion MSYS makes on DVRG's sales), and we assume another 4-5 mln of sales within the next 3-4 months, this implies another £500k of sales for MSYS.

2. "Although this particular output was assembled manually in Cork, the products are now considered to be just one final generation from moving into automated mass production, which is scheduled to commence in April 2022 in both China and Ireland."
Automated mass production means lower production cost for MSYS units, hence higher Profit Margins.
3. "Today’s news also confirms that DeepVerge’s collaboration agreement with Microsaic has successfully opened potentially significant international distribution channels for it. "
Significant channels mean more sales, quicker.
DYOR

Frix,
If you look at Note 5 of Interims (Revenue), you can see the breakdown:
H1 2021 H12020 Full2020
Product/Unit 367,474 0 83,397
Consumables and spares 119,641 66,766 105,135
The above indicates that:
1. Sales of spares are mostly independent of product sales within the report period (more dependent on use of existing units installed) i.e. spares are needed for all the Units sold in earlier years, not just for the units sold within the relevant reporting period - for example, in H1 2020, no units were sold but 67k of spares were sold. And in H2 2020, 40k of spares sold Vs 83k of units sold.
2. In H1 2021, spares' sales rose 3x (from 40k to 120k appx), indicating increased use and activity for the installed units; this indicates a rising trend and it's probably related to the model change by MSYS i.e. more services using AI etc.
3. This implies both rising Profit Margins and rising proportion of Service and Spare sales' within the Revenue mix. It also makes Revenues more predictable and thus steadier.
DYOR

Frix, thanks. Good guess earlier then ("3-5 units")!
In earlier RNSs, a figure of £50k was mentioned, so we are looking at a minimum of £40k maybe (for bulk buying?). Or 50k is more appropriate due to the AI/software enhancements?
The 250k is a one off revenue (Product sales), but there will be a recurring revenue stream both from spare parts and servicing income.

NU,
We know there is a Seller trying to extricate, so I think we should not be too concerned about it.
The clock is ticking in PIs favour because with each day passing, a new RNS becomes more likely and profitability comes closer (in 2023, I estimate).
The important thing is the trend - all RNSs (since the fund raising) have been positive and relate to new business partnerships, sales, technology breakthroughs etc.
We just need to be patient for a few more months.IMHO

As said before, the big money will come next year when:
1. China license is obtained
2. Bioprocessing commences with 3-4 big pharma companies
3. revenues start from ongoing water monitoring
4. the above will prove beyond any doubt to the market that MSYS is viable and cash generating
In the meantime, the seller will be selling into strength with each new RNS; the only thing we can do, is average down or just bide our time for a few more months.
The Co is building its sales pipeline and recurring revenue streams IRRESPECTIVE OF share sales in the market.

DVRG announced £2.2 mln, we have 3 countries so a MIN of 3 locations (maybe more, if India and China add 2 locations each).
This means 3-5 units sold so MSYS' revenue should range from £150-250k.
Add other revenues (recurring, spare parts etc) and we easily have another £500k for H2.

This is quite big IMHO; 2.5 bln people, living in polluted, crowded places, with water supplies dwindling due to global warming; the potential is huge and this is just the beginning.
More important is a) the validation of the technology in a real environment and b) monitoring means steady, recurring, increasing fees as time goes by.
I said some weeks ago to expect - on average - 2 RNS per month - so we still have time for one more by month end. GLA

Hopefully MSYS will jump in the thick of the action?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-28/why-action-on-forever-chemicals-is-taking-so-long-quicktake

Guys,
Within the Interim Report and the +£1m Share Payment Charge (see relevant note), 750 mln share options (i.e. just over 10% of share capital on a diluted basis) have already VESTED to the 4 Directors at a price of 0.1p; they can exercise their options by Jan. 2026 at this price.
Dilution will take place then logically i.e. in 2026; note, there are another 250 mln options i.e. another 4% to staff, to be exercised by Jan. 2023.
The only good thing I see is that the Board's interests are more aligned with the rest of us with their big holding (which they got for free).

In the absence of news, we have to get used to this; but, it doesn't add anything to our knowledge about the prospects of the Co unless we knew who the seller is and why they sell eg do they have insider info? (which, of course, is impossible to know).

Well, by Xmas time I expect to (after the SP's big rise) to fly somewhere warm and nice, with plenty of turkeys :)))

It's beginning to look like the "bus".
We are waiting for so many RNSs by Y/E so with every day passing by without a release, the chances keep increasing of many RNSs being squeezed in less than the next 2 months, as I don't expect any news in the 2nd half of December (as everybody will be fighting for their turkey in the shops)!

NU,
Much longer than Helium, for sure. :)
As I have said before, the SP is bound to rise - significantly IMHO - before the Y/E, assuming all the stuff described in the Interims' Presentation come through as promised (by Y/E).
If not, then Q1 2022 will be a very exciting quarter as more developments will take place then instead of the next 8-9 weeks.
GLA

" Digitial Health GP Clinic real-time diagnostics are coming to a clinic/bedside shortly #MSYS #DVRG"
Thanks for that, it'd be nice to see the correct spelling for Digital! :)
Big question is - how soon is "shortly"?