Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Oldtramp, how do we know that? I thought it was speculated but never confirmed. If that is indeed the reality then there is one less uncertainty in my mind. All these little things undermine confidence and JW needs to install confidence. His stakeholder management leaves a lot to be desired.
Did JW not promise a trading statement / update every 3 months? Should have been one on 30 September if I remember correctly. I know they have been busy, but being too busy to meet promises to shareholders is rather frustrating to say the least.
>40% up since the announcement of the ML. Not bad but I thought it would be more. Assuming we retain a 20% equity stake in the project and using the Cenkos report data the enterprise value of the 20% stake should be about 80m to 100m and yet the market cap only increased about 10m in the week. On top of the gas storage we have seen an increase in the docking and also with Saipem contract underway and phase 2 o possibility there should be a lot more to come - in theory. Have been in this thing for a long time and am a long term believer - maybe this time the light at the end of the tunnel will not be an oncoming train.
BlairPeach, feel free to take it up the “rather misinformative statement” with the reporters. Their names are Nathalie Thomas and Harry Dempsey.
Stokey12, here is the wording from the FT article.
Shipyard group Harland & Wolff expects to receive a marine licence within a month for a new gas storage facility in Northern Ireland that has been more than a decade in the making and could increase the UK’s capacity by a third.
The UK’s storage capabilities have come into focus in recent weeks as prices of natural gas, vital for heating and electricity generation, have soared to record highs.
The UK only has capacity to cover about 2 per cent of annual gas demand compared with about 20 to 30 per cent in most other large gas importers, leading to accusations from some MPs and academics in recent weeks that Britain has forfeited its security of supply.
The UK government in 2017 allowed Centrica to close Rough, which was Britain’s largest gas storage facility, to new injections after the utility group said it would not be economic to refurbish the ageing site.
Storage developers had long lobbied UK ministers for a support scheme to develop new gas storage but Britain has instead adopted a just-in-time approach that relies on declining domestic production and imports via pipelines and seaborne cargoes.
Aim-listed Harland & Wolff said on Wednesday that it expected to receive the permit for its Islandmagee gas storage project in County Antrim from Northern Ireland’s Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs within 28 days, despite opposition to the project from environmental groups including the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds.
The company behind the Belfast shipyard that built the Titanic hopes to take a final investment decision on the project, which is expected to cost up to £300m, “as soon as practicable”. It had been working for two years to secure a marine licence but the process was delayed by the pandemic and political upheavals in Northern Ireland.
The company said it had received interest in the project from both UK and overseas investors but it was also likely to make an application to the newly established UK Infrastructure Bank for funds.
If sufficient finance is secured, the group expects to construct the facility, which would be able to store 500m cubic metres of gas in seven salt caverns, in phases. The first caverns would likely start operation 36 months after building work began.
Chart showing Harland & Wolff ‘sshare performance over the past two years
The Islandmagee facility would be located near Northern Ireland’s main gas-fired power station and the end point of the main gas pipeline between Scotland and Northern Ireland. It would be the first gas storage facility to be completed in the UK since 2014.
Harland & Wolff’s chief executive John Wood said the facility would be able to supply sufficient gas to meet peak demand for up to 14 days for Northern Ireland, as well as exporting gas to the grid in Britain.
Although the scheme would not be built in time to ease the current gas price crisis, Wood said the recent turmoil
Stokey12, where I come from an F is an F, doesn't need the minus afterwards, but I like the way you think :)
Stokey12, we operate in a vacuum. JW said from the start that he would not be announcing new contracts and would not be “managing” the SP. When the Board said they would give regular 3 monthly trading updates I was relieved but that relief was very short lived and the only trading updates we have seen have been irregular and lacking content. We live and we dream that one day there will be a realisation that shareholders matter. Current score on investor relations is a F. .
Dawski378, I don’t look at the colour. I look at whether it is above or below the midpoint between the bid and the ask. I have resorted to looking at it this way since the LSE site is rather rubbish. These are all well below the midpoint so I therefore assume they are sells unless we have a very talented buyer always on the right side of the spread …. Unless you know for a fact they are buys. Mmmm.
360k of sells in the last 1h30.
Nice to have vessels in both of the Belfast dry docks and also Appledore + Saipem ongoing at Arnish. Busiest time ever. Now we just need news on the ML.
Stokey12 it refers only to where work has actually started. If a tender has been awarded, a contract signed but work has not started then no revenue should be recognised.
Stokey12, for the larger, longer term contracts revenue should be booked based on the percentage of completion method. This is the same as the construction business.
Ban4118. This is an extract from the Cenkos report from 10 June 2020. “Once the entire working volume of c500mcm is made available to Vitol, management estimate this would translate into projected annual revenues of between £50m to £65m at the project level, and an unlevered FCF of between £40m to £50m per annum. Depending on the ultimate level of selldown to partners, InfraStrata would expect to maintain a significant carried interest in the project equity, and receive an upfront payment covering their costs incurred to date (c£15m)”.
My view is that given increased volatility the numbers might be a bit bigger now and at a reasonable PE ratio applied to the future FCF, this alone would be multiples in excess of the current market cap.
Stokey12, seems like it is due in BDD on 11 October.
I remain convinced somehow, someway, someone is managing to fiddle with the share price - downwards. Until that stops happening and normal market forces return we will go nowhere regardless of the news or success of the underlying business. Seems someone has it in for the company or the Directors.
According to vessel finder the Dorset Spirit will arrive in Belfast on 26 September at 06h00. Will be good to see it dock. BTW, it didn’t say which year - haha. Jam tomorrow!
My guess. 25p. So for low balling, but I have proven to be overly optimistic for the past 15 years so have dialed back my enthusiasm. :)
Oldtramp, absolutely yes and the Eu haven't had a “shovel ready” proposal on their table for months and months awaiting a decision after a very lengthy consultation process. Either way you look at it reflects incompetence and negligence. I believe they will wake up and that is why I remain invested.
Very interesting oldtramp. The level of incompetence and shortsightedness of the decision makers continues to amaze me. Borderline criminal through negligence.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/activity-6840886842699612160-gCZB