Member Info for LondonNorthWest

@ragnarr has BLU retained that 5.5%, or 28% of the 5.5% (1.5%)?

The £25m value of the company on the market is way less than the the value Skymesh will IPO at, which I think it might happen in the first half of 2024. Last week Skymesh also sold some assets to Summit, but retained the end customers with a new partnership: https://www.itnews.com.au/news/skymesh-sells-clear-networks-fixed-wireless-infrastructure-597863. That should be beneficial to margins it seems.

Quickline stake is £7m, so that's over 25% of the mcap.

Let's see if they manage to sell part of the nordics business (or they expand to Finland and Sweden), but that has to be worth something as well.

I think the company could conservatively be worth 80p, so 2x the current price.

The problem is they don't communicate often, and when they do they do not sell themselves well.

But sum of the parts is higher than price, they generate FCF, and Mills now owns 25% of the company

Nothing stops him from buying at 60% discount from those ex prices.

If i had an asset which i believe is worth more than 35 (or 45), and the price is 14, i think id spend less than 50% of the money and buy those 140m shares at 13 for 40% of the cost. no?!

Very much aligned with all you said, BB, it's just about SPay and Dynasty.

my thought process actually starts from Dynasty, and assume SPay is basically for free here.

What i like about Dynasty: the sector, the geography, the C-suite, the investors involved in the pre-ipo fundraising, FCF positive (allegedly). In april 21 this business was valued at $50m. In these 27 months it became FCF positive, expanded, established new partnerships where it extracts 4x the revenues that the initial SaaS model was. All in all, I wouldn't be surprised that an ipo valuation (2024?) or the one from an acquisition to be closer to $100m than $50m. This means 0.17p-0.20p to BlueStar. So Dynasty, to me, is worth more than the current mcap.

Everything else seems for free then.

While I sense Googly and Paidia are also probably worth more than the 60k each as per the balance sheet, they seem too small to become meaningful. So im not considering them.

SPay - I have no clue what's worth. It's generating little revenues as far as i understand, so it's all about potential. What i do know for sure is that it is worth more than 0. And I think it's likely worth a multiple of what it was in 2019 (i.e. pre-covid, and pre crypto/blChain explosions).

To summarise, my personal view is Dynasty could be worth $85m+ and SP $50m, today.

Which i think means is around 0.4p. Granted, I can easily be too conservative here (or too optimistic..), but thats what i think is reasonable until i see some hard numbers.

One important thing i cannot reconcile though is why Fabrizi is not buying shares

Fyi

one of the partnerships announced in April 2022 seems concluded.

Maxis Malaysia gaming platform (launched Feb 2022) shutting down: https://genggamer.gg/shop/topup/MLBB_MY.

context: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/davidrgrainger_maxis-introduces-geng-gamer-tournaments-to-activity-7001335502574432256-MqBD/?originalSubdomain=my

So, new "SaaS+" contracts (that we know of) are:

Partnership with Spark (NZ - 2022)

50%-50% revs agreements with Googly (India - launched in 2023)

50%-50% revs agreements with Paidia (Canada)

50% JV with LPL (Aus - launched May 2023)

Dist agreement with IOH (Indonesia, signed after this: https://www.globenewswire.com/en/news-release/2022/10/13/2533503/0/en/Pioneer-Signs-Game-Publishing-Agreement-With-Dynasty-Gaming-Media-Targeting-Asian-Telco-Market.html)

Agree cash might not be needed (+ could sell Sthaler, or Guild appreciates), but disagree on the numbers.

Guild stake is worth like 83k today. They have admin expenses of 112k for 6 months.

Selling guild at these levels is = to less than 5 months of expenses, surely not an extra year..

You're probably right. Was just running some basic maths as considering entering here.

But i noticed the shift in tone between sept and march vox interviews, he initially said no future raise, and then "we intend not to raise if possible". Guild is half the value it was in september, so i think their cash forecasts have changed accoridngly and so his tone. Just a personal guess

Cash at 31/3: 156k; admin expenses H1: 112k.

Costs until 30/9 look covered (+40k), Guild will be sold so another +80k. So recurring costs until March 24 seem roughly covered. However, there will be a fee to pay to the company asserting the value of SP.

Therefore a cash raise around end of 23 looks possible. What else can be sold on top of guild stake?

Will be sold in the fall to cover next 5/6 months of admin costs

£80k-£90k

They’ve never done a good job at PR with investors, so short term investors lose interest. Sum of the parts around £1, imo, so 2x this price. Loaded at £0.39-0.42 so not personally adding at this level

Good to see Mills now owning 25%+ of the company

When annual report out there will be more clarity on strategy, we can then see the direction. Probably is still quite cheap? Skymesh covers at minimum the mcap. Nordics, 5% Quickline, FCF on top for free

Looks like SkyMesh is (re)entering the fixed line market after 5 years, this should support the business to get closer to the targeted 100,000 customers by end 2025. https://www.crn.com.au/news/skymesh-reprises-fixed-line-ambitions-590916.
Still valuing this company at c.90p

Seems they bought back £6.6m of stock (£7.5m total agreed) in the last 3 months, at average 61p

Think markets need to see the FY Financial statements to better understand how the entire company works.
Today it seems completely ignored, for a variety of reasons as Chris also mentioned.
Surely this has to be worth £1 min

Also no debt, net cash, 90%-95% recurring revenues, large insider shareholders.

Agree Skymesh alone probably worth more than £30m.
Harder to put a value on the Nordics. A business being restructured, with historically very high margins. Also with an additional 300k market opening up as copper switched-off. And the partnership with Telenor. 4m revs today, worth around 10m?
5.1% in Quickline at least £7m today.

Conservatively, summing the parts, bbb worth at least 50m (mcap today is 23m)

Camkite, very good point. Suspecting they were inundated with emails following the RNS and the share price dropping 40%, the new CEO must have felt like there was a disconnect between shareholders expectations and real status.
I think that's Tim Watts fault, and the reason they did the presentation. The news slides, if compared to the presentation made in January, are all mostly about the pre launch activities they have been doing because were not done by previous management.
So the message seemed to be...we're doing a lot of behind the scene work that does not immediately translate in revenues, so dear shareholders be patient. Drug is amazing, it works brilliantly, when a doctor get to know it he prescribes it. We will need more resources to accelerate the process, but will let you know more about this point next month when we post FY

Thanks TC and DB19

Just watched.
CEO sounded quite positive on China progress, calling it `excellent`. His presentation skills are really good.
They dodged the cash question and said they want to do so much more with adequate resources, it all points to raising finance to me, and could well be debt. Saw somewhere the CEO actually got debt financing in a previous company he managed. They made £100k in December and are targeting over $500m per year, that demands financing.

Pleased overall with the work they have done, they seem to have very clear ideas.
Hope they close another deal soon, so they can invest those extra money to push awareness levels up faster

Hey guys, could not attend the presentation. Any meaningful update?