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Quite right char333 - Agreed.
As I’ve replied to nomad1 - if you believe this share is going to be seeing £20 by this time next year based on one day of news with regards to a vaccine, that might work, then you have simply not grasped that state the globe is in and the time it will take to put things back to “normal”
How ridiculous that supposedly intelligent investors have gone nuts with hope based on a science that they dont understand, regarding a vaccine they know nothing about that may or may not cure a virus which has only been part of the reason RDS has collapsed. How quickly Brexit seems have been forgotten, how prematurely investors think that Biden will roll over and sign his name on a great big trade deal just like that.
Enormous global business, all considering just how much office space they need? Should they still fly staff around the world?
Well regarded think tanks & Institutions producing data showing the city of London COULD reduce in size by up to 8% a year. Millions potentially no longer travelling to work. Potentially you may not have to even live in the same country as you work.
SO, London house prices - wobbly - London losing its economic clout - but hey, one day of great news about a POSSIBLE vaccine and RDS puts on 12%
Short sighted
Emma
Dear Nomad1 -
You are clearly older than the President- elect, which I assume means you struggle with typing. Are you 96 years old? or did you purchase a share a £9.63 ? Are you sure it was RDSB? If so, you didn’t "catch the bottom", in fact you didn’t even get close to the bottom. More mid table if we are looking at the last 3-5 months.
Can you elaborate as to what it is you think will be announced? And, what it is that will speed up once announced? I wont bother asking you why you believe RDS will be back at £20 next year, as its clear your level of research is likely the front page of the FT. However, for you information, RDS will not be seeing anything close to £20 next year.
That is nothing more than fantasy thinking.
I suggest you sell your 42 RDS shares now, whilst in profit.
We dont comment on BP
Emma
We agree with you Alas Smith,
You should read caitlin1 previous posts, and understand she is holding heavy loads at £25..
There is always an angle on these boards!!
Emma
Non of us are interesting in upsetting you - we are only interested in your responses.
Unfortunately, you cannot filter your posts from us..…Which is great for us!
We have made this clear to you before.
What we have not been able to make clear, is we have some rather useful data that any serious analysts would find of use.
We will be happy to publish this data by Jan-Feb 2020 - but sadly most of you will have blocked it
We are trying to get an LSE WEBINAR agreement set up with Ben van Beurden.
It will be invitation only upto 50 for 1 hour.
There will be 15 from LSE 15 form another board and 20 participants, hopefully making up the numbers.
IF and its a big IF we get permission, we will invite those we feel have contributed kindly and honestly.
Mmm. Thats you out grippa - we dont want you calling him a fat pig straight off eh!?
Of course Bugerov,
We are just a small group of 4 researches. The first letter of our four names can be arranged to spell Emma. Childish, I am sure.
Some of us have write very small peer assessed articles. We have tried to gain to info out of this board but it struggles to work out what it is. The academic one of us has been called pig, illiterate and her when she dared to question BOYOBASH, she was roundly put down and told not to challenge a man of his standing !(Actually he was unable to retort)!
We are not investors, but we have some interesting investor information we have said before investor’s might we’ll find useful if thy gave us a chance! But we do like questioning. Very answer gives us information….
So Thanks for the question Bugerrov
We hope to have a pleasant conversation again
Emma
p.s - you could take caitlin1’s response - perhaps we are just all TROLLS
Oh - one more interesting fact (it might be a bit out) caitlin1 has written 1871 posts. Londonlife have posted 19 posts and have written more words in 19 posts than CaityKat has managed in 1871 posts….Doesnt mean you with or wrong caity - think o all those mb’s your saving the word!!!
Oh F*&K, I am in so much trouble with he other three tomorrow - your fault bugerov! We blame too
EMMMA X
Dear Bimmer668
I wish you well with your purchase and hypothesis and wishful thinking and guesswork.
However, can I ask you one question with regards to a statement that you seem very sure about :
“ I dont think Shell is going bust any time soon”?
Could you give some substance as to why?
Companies of this size and larger
have gone to the wall many times before….!
There is no confidence inShell reaching £20 at any time soon at all. Not by any of the serious players that underpin Shells share price. So, I was interesting what research you have done to draw these conclusions?
Emma
Well, we missed you of this post caitlin, but we have replied to your others. Not much to say really caitlin1.
Perhaps writing childrens books might be a better carrer.
Oh for your interest 79% of al your predictions over 6 months have not been accurate..
Emma
Its rare to get three predictions in a row wrong .
When you have info on the company you’re making a predictions on wrong…and still get it it wrong three times on the trot..
its time to leave investing and write children stories…
Yes, char,
I suspect you are right. And have been from the start. I was ridiculed the other day when investors saw two days of SP rising.
I pointed out that any two points on the earth joined up form a straight a line. But that is it - just a straight line.
It means nothing. It does not indicate a rally now swallow doesnt make a summer…
Whatever this company finishes looking like, it wont look anything life it did in 2017/18
Emma
This board is an interesting microscopic view of life.
Firstly, its not meant as a slur in any way. I observe figures, but in doing so cant help observe personally of traders.
I always find the insult thrown at me to be…unthought-about.
Emma - White - privileged - fully abled and higher university educated. I can prove it, but when grippa, who I had never spoken too called me a fat heffa - he assumed - white - privileged bla bla - put her backing her box.
SO, we monitored all his posts. 68% where asking Poker and Boyobach what he should do? You could hear the fear in gripp’s posts. Her was an abusive man who had not idea what he was doing. He was signal signing D1 - that the beginners box!
know which category we put this type of poster in. He is not an investor. Not in the way that Poker is.
Now here is a man who has commanded respect year afrer year , after year and if you go back you can see there is a strong cluster of well read investors. and they would talk across different boards…
Then there is char333. Derided, made to look stupid, and much worse hateful things. He had a view. He stuck to his view. And, right now his view is the most consistent on the RDSA post. Interesting isnt. it. Only a few weeks ago I tried to engage with Boyobach. Again, a fierce attack, a sexist slant, and a sort of “ Go away little girl - Now Poker is taking a break I am king -
All his charts, forecasts and graphs we plotted for him and he was right almost exactly 50/50 - He may as well play black or red on roulette. for all his RDS knowledge. - Now, his average week looks bad, and he is looking at some time to turn around.
He was posting 15 or more post a day….Now, he has talked of retirement and badly beaten in the red…
My point is 20 years ago short term investment was 5 years long term , and 20 years was long term.
You read post of folks saying they will hold RDSB long hold for 12-18 month. Ridiculous. They will probably sell in under 3
My point is that there needs to be synergy. There needs to be more sensible debate. More cohesion, and some of these insures need to take proper long term t views, rather than silly short term views .
Char has hd the humility to say he doesn’t benefit from a fine education - yet there is much to learn by humble folk
As for London, she is a black 49 year old, with just one middle class uni, but grateful for it. Women didn’t get the chance to go to Uni in my teens like boys did.
I wish this board well. Just loose some ego and paranoia !!!
Emma
We looked and checked your statement caitlin1.
RDSB did indeed fly..
Right into the ground , nose first I am afraid.
We just dont see any serious confidence behind RDS at the moment. Ive been ridiculed for my comments, others who have more realistic views have also been derided for their more down beat views on the SP and yet here we are, 70 odd days away from the end of the year at: £8.90
Some investors will be holding 1 share that others will be holding 3 for the same pice.
For us the interest is which investors have tried to buy in when it first hit £17/£18 and also again at £13.
Evidence showed the more knowledgable investor took that position as they would recover in six months time. Virus over, trade war declining, Saudi - Russia sorted out
One investor borrowed very short terms to purchase 50,000 RDSA - and has now filed for bankruptcy.
It's no one on this board, but just a warning to the likes of boyobach.
Emma
caitlin1
Our first post was not in anyway disrespectful, or even trying to get a point over. So, we were a little surprised by your response to us. We have virtually everyone filtered on this site with the exception of a few people who have been picked on savagely but are now posting really well given the chance to speak and not be ridiculed we found that char333 for example has far more individual points that many on this board , board and what he has forecast has come to be quite accurate.
There are two people we would like to ask questions too and because we assume you are female, you are one of those people.
There is nothing difficult at all, you can look back at you we have questioned before and the info they give - and it is all above board. You might notice we penned a piece earlier about a possible merger before this board was talking about it
But we are more invested in your views. Please let us know if you wish be asked around 5 questions.
Emma
Hello caitlin1,
We wanted to reply to your post yesterday, however we couldn’t understand it.
The last time we monitored your posts was back in April. You held RDSB at £25
A chap joined the board, announced he was new and purchased some RDSB at circa £9:10 & £10:20 in March
As the stock was fast approaching £13-14 you were rather unpleasant to this new chap and called him a liar, stating he could not have purchased at 9:10 as they had not fallen that far.
Pokerchips pointed out to you that they had indeed fallen to sub £9 - but you insisted the man was a liar.
He got fed up of you and posted his Share Certificates and Contract notes on ebay and told everyone who didn’t believe he had purchased stock at this price to go to Ebay, and search the words: caitlin1 is an idiot
We noted 37 people went to look at that site and we emailed him directly.
You went silent and set up a second i.d
He pretty much gave up with LSE , and left.
Shame
He sold his total holdings at £13:11 and purchased gold.
This adds to our belief that you do not need hours of journals and graphs. For some, gut instinct
Dear anon3,
I am not an investor.
However, I wondered if you could answer one or two points to help me understand what underpins your beliefs in this share.
Yes, I agree there that many small investors appear to rely very heavily on charting , and over analysis with data. There is also quite alot of “instinct buying” were you see investors pile in because they have seen RDSB at or around £20 their whole career,and now its hovering around £9.
However, you say this stock is cheap…
But cheap in comparison to what ? Is it cheap in comparison to other oilers?
I would say not really .
Is it cheap because just around the corner RDSB’s problems will be fixed, and it will start to generate supreme amount of cash? Again, I would say no.
Do you believe its cheap? Or could this be the correct price because that is what RDS intact worth?
(obviously you are free to disagree with any thing I write)
Putting aside the p/e and dividend, which despite optimism, could be reduced again. Better to get that done now, if they are going to reduce the divi again, RDS will want to do this as close together as possible to blame the cut in dividend on the virus.
Can you tell me why you think this stock is cheap?
Have you any evidence that this share could or is even worth £15, a rise of over 50% ?
If so, could you give me a brief example of something that is backed up by fact?
Have you purchased recently, in the last month for example? Or would you if you could?
How long are you prepared to hold the stock for, and do you have a buy stop or a stop loss order in place?
Very grateful indeed if you could answer any of these questions. It is purely for piece of research. As Ive said to others, happy to share some of the findings at a later date.
Emma
Dear ST
Many thanks for replying so sincerely.
This type of feedback is incredibly useful to us, and I will attempt to glue together some type of reply this week. It may not agree entirely with what you say, but I will try to add reason, and were I can, fact.
The email that we compiled earlier under this thread, had some insight into some of the existential issues a company of RDS size will face. I have been saying for a while that it is our understanding that a merger may currently only be speculation in the press, but the reality is that more than one lot of talks are going simultaneously.
All investors should do their own research, however, in todays world its quite tricky for a small investor to do all their own research, and if I am honest, with a company the size of RDS in a commodity that is more politically affected than most quoted companies, it's actually impossible. As researches, we have access to peer assessed papers that give us information that would not be available unless you had access to a university library.
I wish you well, and try to reply with some investor helpful info!
Regards.
Emma
grippa,
Observing some of your posts over the last three days has lead us to wonder just how many people might be over invested in oil and unsure what to do next. The content of your postings suggests you may be in that boat and are seeking help to make independent decisions and are looking for external reassurance.
We certainly are not interested in judgment making. More interested in how this feeds into the (rather badly put together ) data I released midweek. Many are struggling in a sector which is open on all side to the elements and is being tossed in the incredible turbulent, and uncertain waters RDS finds itself swimming in.
Researching various global periodicals that we use, and some paid for forums and a few kindly analysts throwing us tit-bits of data, it would appear there is little confidence amongst the key players that a recovery above £10 is sustainable in the 3-12 month period (We say longer) . I have said before, I think the RDS board is split on which way to go forward, and I dont think that the higher internal echelons of RDS believe the market will settle on a double digit share price any time soon.
Again - this is extrapolated data, but nothing in the raw data points towards any sort of V shaped recovery, for the economy in general, and when you break out Covid-19 recovery by sector, oil is very poorly placed right now.
What I have tried to show from the start is the the small investor appears to be acting with some sort of Lemming mentality. The investor is buying because other are, and is prepared to follow others over the cliff. (metaphorically)
Posts this week have again shown investors seeking approval and assurance from other investors, who themselves are not exactly sure what to do best. It would take roughly a 30% price increase to start to break the £13 SP - which is a price alot of investors piled in at after seeing the SP rise quickly form £9 upwards back in March after the first cras
On your final point regarding SP.
Many would like to see an £18 SP. However, can you provide evidence that this share price as to why we would see such an enormous increase in short term 3-12months? Or a more realistic short term of 2-4 years even?
Emma
Our opinions coincide with yours char333
We see no evidence in any data set that shows RDS having any internal plan to deal with global problems of the type going on. However, although our data shows that, it's interesting to see what the small individual investor thinks.
Crudely speaking here is a very basic piece of top line research that has used various methodologies:
Using the opinions of investors that write on these types of message boards and are likely to be holding £50,000 or less of RDSA/B stock - As a percentage:
- 61.3% believe the share price is oversold and will increase up-to or more than 40% in the next 3-9 months.
- 19.1% believe the share is worth the risk (this includes dividend benefit, and at a price between £9-£10.99)
- 14.4% believe this share is volatile, but suitable to invest in for the short term, or to trade daily (risk investors)
5.2% would not hold this stock, not purchase more stock at this price, and not attempt to average down.
(Results above are not raw data and have been extrapolated)
There is a large investor group who seem to have a positive outlook to the share price, without being able to back it up. Many simply state that the virus will pass, aviation and industry will soar back to life, so will the price of oil, therefor so will RDS.
This view is not based on evidence, its only on theory, and very little research.
Tthe theory ignores much of the evidence we have.
The buying trends that we are seeing would suggest that many small investors may simply be following other investors sentiment. It may also be that small investors who have spent decades observing the RDS share price at above or around the £20 mark have been almost hypnotised by the £9 SP.
They are buying purely because they think this is cheap, yet do so without any real market or corporate confidence behind them. They are purchasing because the optics make it look like its 2 for 1 on RDS, and this in our opinion is very wrong.
Its much more a case that this £20 product is very broken, and has become obsolete, therefor we are reducing it in price to £9
It might be rebranded and the packaging may look similar, but the product inside may not, and the price of circa £9 may well become the norm.
One of the first pieces I wrote was that although not visible at the time, it was possible that mergers were already undergoing preliminary talks. I remember those who thought they knew better than the research ridiculing my writing, most of which was accumulated via qualitative study.
What I have written is only a snapshot in time of some collective opinions from several different mediums.
Emma
Dear char333,
Thank you for taking the time to answer, and giving your responses.
Once we have collated all the information from 5 different sets of data, asking the same types of questions to other small investors, and put it all together, I will try to offer you some top level detail. Nothing too deep, just something you might find interesting, and even helpful . It will likely be Jan next year now.
I have filtered almost all responses except yourself and four others I would like to ask questions off.
These will be unfiltered by my colleagues, which is helpful, and I will read their filtered posts.
One thing I have also learnt, is I never read filtered or negative feedback first thing in a morning or before I go to bed.
You might find this useful. Just a thought.
Regards,
Emma
char333,
If this is in reply to my rather long email last night, then thank you.
I dont want to put words in your mouth but I can say then, that you arrived at the conclusion shares dont tend to recover after dramatic loss simply by your own judgement? That because of previous shares you have held, you noticed a trend that these shares behaved a certain way after dropping greatly in price. They never gained back their losses, and you dont think RDSB will anytime soon? Finally, you feel some of this judgement is down to your nature, you say you are a realist.
Could I ask you finally. You say you are not speculating on the low, but do you think this is a good time to buy ?
If you could put a % on it would say the SP has for example 60% of being higher in 12 months 60% or lower?
Just a percentage figure would be great.
I will not be reviewing your responses until this evening now, but thank you for your feedback.
Emma
2/2
RDS may not look at all like it does currently due to internal disputes and a playing field that just has too many players on it of this size.. Again, there is so much more to it that just that, and I dont have the proof yet.
The confidence that small investors have is that vaccines will be found, that planes will be back in the air, cruise ships sailing and oil flowing around the world again, is a confidence that only really exists CONSISTENTLY within these small communities. I cannot find independent confidence in abundance and consistently anywhere else, unless you include RDS and its multi tentacles PR departments and lobby groups.
Could you tell me why you came to those opinions? I understand you have seen this happen before with other companies, but is there any other reason you think RDS will stay this way, or is it just past experience? If it is past experience, please just say so, that is perfectly okay.
Secondly, could I ask you were you mainly take your RDS information from? You can name newspapers, news programmes, scholarly articles, analysts. What ever you use. If you use just you own opinion, please say so. There is no right or wrong, and you will not appear in print anywhere! You have my word on it. Its part of a larger picture.
Do not feel under pressure to reply. You may receive unpleasant remarks if you do, and I do not want you to be involved with that on my part. I cannot protect you at all
So - If you are going to reply, perhaps keep your answers short, to the point and factual. If I need more info I will come back to you but if you reply to me factually, and simply and do not bring others into this, then I truly think it would be easier for both of us.
Remember, I am only after your reasons as to why you have thought what you have thought for so long.
Or, by all means please feel free to not reply at all.
Not spell checked or read through very well!
Thank you
Emma