Some not so good news18 Nov 2019 07:59
SA's junk spiral may deepen as S&P likely to cut outlook Nov 18 2019 07:00
South Africa could move deeper into junk territory as the nation looks set to lose the only stable outlook on its credit ratings this week.
In a Bloomberg survey, 86% of economists said Moody's will take South Africa to junk next year, compared with 27% who said in a survey before the mid-term budget that the country will be sub-investment grade by the end of 2020. More than half of those who now say the country will be sub-investment grade with Moody's in 2020 forecast it will happen within the first six months.
A Moody's downgrade would force South Africa out of the FTSE World Government Bond Index, which could prompt a sell off and outflows of as much as $15bn, according to Bank of New York Mellon. It will also raise borrowing costs and make it even more difficult for government to finance the budget.
"The agency has so far demonstrated an incredible, and frankly quite unjustifiable, reluctance to cutting South Africa's ratings to junk," said Cristian Maggio, head of emerging-market strategy at TD Securities.
"Confronted with a horrendous revision of all fiscal targets now, and in the absence of any significant positive revisions, Moody's will haven no option but to align with S&P and Fitch and cut the ratings."