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bushveld minerals: fully integrated vanadium exposure with potential for operational turnaround & share price rerating.
we initiate coverage of bushveld minerals (“bmn”) with a price target of gbp9/sh, implying 339% upside to the current price. bmn is a fully integrated vanadium producer that operates mines and plants in south africa, which we estimate will produce 3,700t of vanadium in 2023e, accounting for >3% of global supply.
after operational difficulties, pricing headwinds, and associated balance sheet stress led to a steep de-rating in bmn shares, we expect a rerating to be driven by growing production and...
https://*********************/offering/changeretail. 45 pages. (subscription access only)
@Uksteveg if Arcacia do still have a substantial holding of c33 million BMN shares I think there is a good possiblity that their holdings in the company will go back over 3% admittance of the new shares. Imo, they are not intending to continue as the main mover behind the scenes and are NOT going to bail out. FM would not still be involved if that was the intention.
Just my opinion!
Mustang Energy convertible loan notes holders informed Mustang that they have elected to act on the backstop agreement.
• The backstop agreement envisages the issuance of new shares in Bushveld Minerals in lieu of outstanding Mustang convertible loan notes after the deadline for Mustang readmission to trading on the LSE passed on 31 July.
• In return, Mustang will transfer 22.1% interest in VRFB-H that holds a 40% interest in Enerox, a VRFB OEM based in Austria and operating under CellCube brand name, as well as novate rights under the US$2m loan made to Enerox
• As a result, Bushveld Minerals will be issuing a total of ~270.4m new shares to redeem ~£7.2m in outstanding 2021 and 2023 Mustang convertible loan notes (implying a 2.6p issue price and representing 17.4% of enlarged share capital).
• Bushveld Minerals will hold a 64.5% interest in VRFB-H including a direct interest of 22.1% and an indirect interest of 42.4% through its 84% shareholding -BMN (LHS)
in Bushveld Energy (50.5% interest in VRFB-H).
Conclusion:
Exercise of the backstop option by Mustang Energy convertible note holders increases the Company's stake in VRFB-H and ultimately in Enerox, a VRFB OEM based in Austria, although at a hefty price with ~270m new shares to be issued representing ~17% of enlarged share capital. Conversion of notes, essentially, means Bushveld is taking an additional 22.1% interest in VRFB-H at a ~$32m valuation which is in line with the original deal agreed in April 2021 when Mustang Energy invested $7.5m for a 22.1% interest funding its with 2021 CLNs ($8m). This compares to ~$13m implied from the latest Garnet investment of ~$3.3m for additional 10% in Enerox taking its stake in the VRFB producer to 60% with the remaining 40% held by VRFB-H.
We revised our valuation to account for the latest updated FY23 guidance (3.7-3.9ktV at $26.1-27.0/kV C1) as well as increased number of shares and lower
VRFB-H implied valuation. Production is expected to come in marginally stronger in H2/23 predominantly driven by better feed at Vanchem, although, earnings are to remain under pressure as vanadium prices remain subdued. Share price performance is expected to be held back by ongoing Orion convertible facility refinancing (~$45m) discussions as well as a need for additional liquidity over the next 12 months highlighted in the interims. Ultimately, Group rerating will be driven by vanadium prices that we would expect to perform well on the back of potential stimulus measures in China as well as ramping up growth in VRFB
Arcacia virtually own MUST and very possibly still have c. 33 million BMN shares. If so they will have as much a vested interest in seeing an improvement in the sp as everyone else.
It also shouldn’t be forgotten that CC and FM (who is VERY close to Arcacia’s owner, who is a founding member of BMN) have stayed bonded in this together. FM has been openly said to have been kept on board to oversee the what he knows best - energy storage!
Its now more likely, imo, that this could prove to be the catalyst for BMN to move off AIM.
Facilitated by Acacia overseeing BMN reversing into the main market listed MUST. All the potential is there for meeting everyone’s desire to move off the AIM.
Https://www.bushveldminerals.com/about/shareholders/
SHAREHOLDER NUMBER OF ORDINARY SHARES % OF ISSUED CAPITAL
1 Hargreaves Lansdown Asset Mgt 281 627 501 21.88
2 Interactive Investor 256 752 362 19.95
3 Halifax Share Dealing 148 616 692 11.55
4 A J Bell Securities 79 085 095 6.14
5 Orange Trust 72 902 657 5.66
6 Barclays Wealth 45 326 586 3.52
Bushveld Minerals Ltd. Director & Related Holding(s) 16 589 603 1.29
Major Shareholders as at 30 June 2023
@uksteveg, they’ve stated in the past that they expect to have to keep funding the ELZ plant for a couple of years while it ramps up and that will have been allowed for. I doubt Lemur is costing much. I think we have to hope this Arcacia sake, which has obviously been in slow progress over the last few months to avoid unstabalising the market - is a capital raising exercise to help fund Enerox once the MUST relishing exercise gets approved. Once that goes through we might hear more about some offtake contracts coming into existence.
When a major holder gives their broker an instruction for disposal - they are only required to notify the market once they have fallen through one of the % notification levels/ benchmarks - and the total number of shares held in the disposal exercise has been completed.
Of more importance is the company (FM) would have been well aware of the consequences of one of their founding members and major stakeholder had decided to bail out and close down their participation in the future of the company as soon as that decision was made.
24th July 2023
Planning permission has been granted for the world’s largest battery energy storage scheme to be developed in Manchester, with Carlton Power aiming to have the 1GW project entering commercial operation in 2025.
Carlton Power has secured planning permissions for the 1GW battery energy storage scheme (BESS) from Trafford Council.
The 1040MW project, with a production output of 2080MWh, will be located at the Trafford Low Carbon Energy Park in Greater Manchester. The £750m project will strengthen energy security in the region and dwarfs the current largest BESS in the world – the 400MW Moss Landing Energy Storage Facility in California.
Yeah - and sad that according to the RNS, this year the AGM will take place in August LAST year! The new ceo needs to get rid and clear out this unrelenting and continuing level of incompetence . Way beyond time!
5 July 2023
Bushveld Minerals Limited
("Bushveld Minerals" "Bushveld" or the "Company")
Posting of accounts and notice of general meeting
The Annual General Meeting will be held at 12 noon on 2 August 2022 at Oak House, Hirzel Street, St Peter Port, Guernsey GY1 3RH. The Annual Report is available on and can be downloaded from the Company's website: http://www.bushveldminerals.com/financial-reports/ and the Notice of General Meeting is also available at https://www.bushveldminerals.com/general-meeting/.
London South East IR Webinar
23 May 2023, 6-8 pm
Andrada Mining, Challenger Energy,
GoviEx Uranium Inc.
We are delighted to announce our Natural Resources Webinar takes place on May 23, with speakers joining us between 6 pm/8 pm
• Hear the latest about Andrada's final results from the tin, lithium, and tantalum infill drilling programme at the Company's flagship operation, the Uis Mine, once the world’s largest open cast tin mine.
Date & Time May 23, 2023 06:00 PM
Description we are delighted to announce our Natural Resources Webinar on May 23, live 6 pm/8 pm.
Anthony Viljoen, CEO, Andrada Mining
https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/2016831216483/WN_cos7b3ffToOE_hQc6BgQmA
Full-year targets remain within reach after mixed Q1.
Weather-related disruptions and a decision to undertake maintenance whilst drawing down on inventories resulted in a Q-on-Q reduction in output in Q1 2023, though costs remained under control and sales rose on the inventory draws. With more reliable power supply now being realised at Vanchem and a new third-party source of low-silica ore feed expected to improve recoveries there going forward, Bushveld anticipates rising group production rates as 2023 progresses and thus remains confident……….
https://*********************/companies/uk/industrial-metals-iron-steel/bushveld-minerals-limited/research/alternative-resource-capital/full-year-targets-remain-within-reach-after-mixed-q1/97fb8875-8df8-4594-abb8-7aaaf1446108/d8162848-11ca-49f7-9b95-c0b42c62cdf1
@bonxie, Wogan are BMN’s shipping agents, they have a Sales and Marketing Agreement with Wogen Resources Limited.
Wogen market Nitrovan globally on an exclusive basis, with the exception of Japan and Taiwan, those markets are covered by Sojitz Noble Alloys Corporation, a minority partner of the Strategic Minerals Corporation.
RBC Note:
Bearish Today.
Bushveld Minerals* (Sector Perform 6p to 7p)
*Q1 results - it's a miss - driven by heavy rains and maintenance shutdowns
*Q1 23 production of 943mtV was -23% vs RBCe of 1,219mtV
*Q1 23 cash costs were reported at $25.9/kg +6% vs RBCe of $24.5/kg
*Q1 23 sales of 1,028mtV were -24% vs RBCe
Fasts: we reduce our FY23e production vols by 5% to 4,191mtV to acc for weaker Q1
That said, lower production volume estimates are offset by better prices and weaker ZAR leaving FY23E EBITDA unchanged at $12m
A weaker ZAR increases our NAV by +29% to $238m - hence our target goes up to 7p
In the short term we suspect power availability and balance sheet concerns ($39m convert maturing at end of 2023) will weigh... but if they can navigate those then in th elonger term the story provides a unique exposure to Vanadium, a mineral critical for the energy transition.
This note is just a carrying over of the misprint from the last one. Should read 7pence (6 pence)
27 April 2023, 09:38Source - Alliance News
SMALL CAP
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RBC raises Bushveld Minerals target to 700 (600) pence - ’sector perform’
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/market/1682584708947187300/london-broker-ratings-reckitt-price-targets-raised-ocado-is-hold
@HaleSpur, yes, that’s exactly what we need. But no one in the western world, outside of China, currently has the capacity to produce battery units in anything like the huge numbers required to enable winning large VRFB contracts. And with China expanding into several huge VRFB projects, they will have more than enough on their plate in satisfying their own demands. Even the BMN consortium recent $30 million investment only increased CellCubes output to to a paltry 30mwh.
Following the ability to provide electrolyte in-house, battery manufacturing and assembly capacities now surely have to be the next progressive building blocks to be installed in the vertically integrated story so we have a realistic chance of winning some of the large BESS grid scale contracts, rather than just smaller scale hybrid mini- grids.