Member Info for lightnotheat

Agree all should try and stay polite even if they strongly disagree with other's views.

As previously declared, I am long of the stock.

I do think that Sidara will bid but will be surprised if it is much above 60p if that. I think the opportunity is too good to miss and the cost/reward ratio must look attractive to them. However if Sidara walks away and we get a massive debt for equity swap, longs such as myself will be wiped out.

People keep talking about a £6bn order book but net assets have clearly been overstated as covenants which looked comfortable have been breeched. So what is the real size of the order book £4bn?

In terms of timing of any bid, Sidara might feel that it can low ball an offer if it comes in ahead of the suspension of the shares; if it waits and the audited accounts are "ok" it would have to pay more but would have greater certainty.

Absent any news share will not recover much from current levels ahead of the 17th of April.

I agree with the comments that the share price was where it was for a reason. I am long the stock but as mentioned previously on several occasions, I was concerned about the downside risk on a likely going concern statement with the 2024 accounts. I looked at the covenant cover a few weeks ago and historically there was good headroom so the fact that they have been breached now suggests pretty hefty write downs to NAV. So I am not sure what this means for the true value of the order book. I have also previously mentioned the possibility of a massively dilutive rights issue or debt for equity swap.

The key question is whether Sidara will bid before the latest deadline expires and before the shares are suspended and if so at what price. Those who have suggested a price in three figures were always massively over optimistic. The positive view is that Sidara know at least and more than the information published this morning and are apparently still in the game. Also I suspect that they have offered a conditional price to management which must be reasonable in relation to the current share price or talks would not be still going on. The reason that I am still in is that I still believe that this is too big an opportunity for Sidara to pass up as most of the business is still very sound. Ideally they and management will want to put forward and unconditional recommended offer. Whether they are prepared to do this before the Accounts are signed off ie prior to the share suspension is the big question . I worry that they might want to wait to get full comfort.

Thank you for sharing. That is very interesting. The obvious question is the likely time scale to get out of the lab and into SOFCs. Clearly potentially very positive but one has no idea if this is something for 10 years time or next year.

The question is whether GS is buying the shares on its own account; yes for reporting purposes but not sure of the rules if they are buying on behalf of another party that have given them an indemnity against loss on their holding. If that is allowed then that other party might be another bidder....wishful thinking???

I would be delighted with an offer of 80-90P. Things have deteriorated quite a bit since the last bid including increasing liabilities for past contracts, reduced cash flow, challenging debt refinancing, big goodwill write downs and depressed project division performance. So I would not waste much energy referencing S last bid price as indicative of anything.

Even if you take the share price before the announcement of the interim results of the review and trading update, then a 50% premium that would be amazing. Those believing a bid of over £1 can buy my stock at 90p if they wish! I would like to be proved wrong on the upside but fear I won't be.

Bought some more in the low 30s today and happy to await developments.

Naturally I read the RNS; whether B dispose of their stock in an orderly manner - and of course it makes sense that they will - the amount of stock to be sold is still a lot of volume to be absorbed relative to the daily turnover. B will have to announce if they start selling down more than a smidgen and to the extend that they say nothing the overhang is still there and absent anything else the shares are going nowhere.

Just added a smidgen more.

So long as the company does not go bust and I don't think it will, then I will stay for the longer term if a bid does not emerge and even if I have to subscribe to a dilutive rights issue. Basically I fear the short term downside but I believe that under pretty much any scenario the shares will generate a decent return on my average in price within 12 months but could be in a loss for a few of those months

You may well know more than I do, but I am not interested in 2025 but 2026 and beyond. What was assumed in the forecast from Bosch then. What is the risk of other partners withdrawing? What is the risk of slower business growth given the row back on all things green going on at the moment by some of the largest companies in the world. What about the overhand of 17% of the issued share capital. I am long the stock but see nothing to make it go up at the moment. New business gains would help and the disposal of the 17% stake to a new business partner would help a great deal. Perhaps one could buy at these levels and be patient but no news will continue to hold back the shares.

Yes but still see upside being to well below £1

I am long the stock but still worry about some of the posted comments. There is an assumption by those posting that a bid of over £1 is possible and therefore the market price is wrong. In trying to rationalize the share price I see the following:

1. A bid may or may not emerge

2. I very strongly believe that some form of equity issuance will be required as part of the debt refinancing and am therefore worried at what cost this would be

3. Absent a refinancing by the time the Annual Report is sent out - usually in about 3 months time - Wood will have to issue a going concern statement. Whichever way you cut it, this will not be positive for the share price

4. If you look at the notes to last year's Accounts, management were confident that the company had sufficient resources out to the end of 2026 - so damaging to credibility at the very least

5. It is clear that there will be further goodwill write downs, not impacting cash but still can't view as positive

6. Company has talked of disposals this year to make up for cash flow shortfall. What if these are made below book value leading to a further hit on equity.

So despite being long I feel there is plenty to worry about. The share price is only cheap ex a bid, if the company manage to avoid raising equity. I doubt this. So I am in for the bid. I would say 60-80p absolute tops.

Share price would I think fall back to mid 20ps with downside risk in the even of an equity issuance as part of a refinancing of existing debt. However if they sort out the refinancing without an equity issuance then shares would be above where they are today. I remain long of the stock

Doubt it. Suspect news of bid approach leaked prematurely. Probably at least a couple of weeks to wade through all the new information since last report... think how long it has taken since commissioning the investigation to get to the point where the WG were in a position to say anything. S still have nearly four weeks before they are compelled to make a bid or walk away. I would not read too much into silence at this stage. If we get to mid March then I would.

Price would be 20p lower if no bid and a dilutive equity raise and perhaps 50p higher than now in the event of a bid. Probability of a bid around 50%, therefore current price about right on those assumptions.

Agree that 60p seems low but equally I am not sure we are going to get £1. Perhaps what the market is telling us is that management will NOT be able to agree a bid price and therefore the probability of a bid is less than the 50% I have have been banging on about. If so, we are then back to fundamentals. If they get the refinancing done without a dilutive equity issuance and there are no further nasties to come out then double the current price even without a bid is possible. However there are a couple of important "ifs" in there

I agree that any offer will be sub £1, though hopefully more than 70p. Given the history there should be more than one party interested in Wood, although we have not heard of any others at the moment, perhaps they are waiting to see what they are up against in terms of competing offers before rushing or perhaps they are waiting for further clarity on the ongoing investigative review, or both. Wood's management have the duty to seek out any other offers. S knows this and I would have thought that they would certainly want a recommended cash offer, so hopefully more like 80p a share, but who knows. The market is certainly not pricing even this level in at the moment.

Possibly but once II's are told the price they become insiders and can't deal. Some may choose to keep freedom of action.

On the one hand the management's credibility has been seriously damaged which means one should place a huge health warning on any forecasts they make for cash flow or indeed anything else. On the contrary, if I were the management and messed up badly once, I would certainly be building in a significant margin of conservatism on my estimate of positive FCF in 2026. Because I think this is a "two rather than three strikes" and you are out situation, I am just about persuaded to the more optimistic scenario.

Not sure how big a piece of meat it is! As a holder I keep coming back to the same points which is given the history there must be at least a 50% chance of a bid. If that bid were going to be in three figures the share price would be higher than it is today. Again, I am long the stock.

I think 5.34% back in January this year

Glad to see some sensible comments being posted at last. To repeat, I am long the stock but also have previously suggested that the upside is far lower than some think. I have made the same comments re the size of prospective bid premiums vs undisturbed price being implied in some commentators bid price being very unrealistic.

While I think Wood has a valuable franchise, the shares would probably retreat to the 20-30p range without a bid given the current level of uncertainty. My biggest fear is no bid and a massive dilutive equity raising as part of a refinancing of existing debt or worse still a debt for equity swap when we will all be wiped out. Management must know that the latter scenario cannot be allowed and a sale of the business at any price is preferable to this. I think if they sort out the refinancing without a massive dilution to current shareholders, then even without a bid there is still reasonable upside from here. Fingers crossed!