Member Info for lightnotheat

Spoke to HL around lunch time today. No sign of the money from Sidara. Comforted that others have received funds so presumably no overall problem. Money was supposed to be paid WITHIN 14 days of 10th but I guess, as someone else has pointed out, you might just stretch this to midnight today.

Anyone have any views on Ceres Power?

Does anyone have a current view on Sundea Bar; its share performance has been awful despite or perhaps because of all the capital raising.

Has it got a future ?

Would be surprised if there were a counterbid just 2p higher than the current cash offer. Such a bid would have to be totally unconditional, be100% cash, possibly earlier completion than the Sidara offer and be 100% accepted by the lenders due to a least a matching funding package.

In the unlikely event of a counterbid, I would expect 35p minimum. I cling to the remote hope that counterbidders are biding their time to see all the conditions of the Sidara bid satisfied before making their move. Very unlikely, I agree.

@ What... the deal will fall through if a lender calls in its money or if the Court refuses to grant permission for it. Sidara and Wood have made it clear that they have no control over these "exceptional" conditions. RE the FCA ruling they have control over it in that they can chose to ignore it. Indeed when it was announced Sidara did not make the deal conditional on its outcome, which is why I think you can ignore it as it clearly not something that Sidara can use to change the deal. As for the share discount, I have always clearly stated that this relates to the two issues above and the time value of money. The market would seem currently to be applying a 15% discount on top of the time value of money for these two issues. If the deal does fall through then we will lose 100% of our money in my opinion.

If the only issue was the time value of money the shares should be at a maximum of 5% discount to the offer price so something like 28.5p. So the current price is suggesting about a 15% discount for the risk that this will not go through and 0% for any counterbid. The only outstanding issues are outside Wood and Sidara's control and relate to the lenders and the Court Approval. FCA investigation is within their control as they can chose to ignore any ruling for the purposes of the deal. Therefore in my opinion a price under 24p is cheap!

Yesterday I mentioned 3 reasons why the Wood share price was not higher (1) time value of money to completion (2) concern that the Court would not approve the deal and (3) fear that a lender would break ranks and call in its loans. I attached a low probability to each. I was asked why I did not mentione the FCA investigation. Two reasons for this. First I do not think any outcome in terms of fine would be that material and Second, and most importantly, Wood and Sidara have not as far as I recall made the outcome of the investigation a condition of the deal. Therefore I do not really see that as relevant to the current share price.

I no longer have skin in the game having sold out in stages a few weeks back as I could not justifying the 350-450 levels/target prices on what we know. Was thinking of buying back in but the Grizzly report has put me off. Unfortunately there seems to be much truth in the list of failed joint ventures, lack of profit after years, likely low return from current JVs etc. There needs to be a major contract win with significant financials behind it to rehabilitate the stock in my view. The technical issues with the product also have some truth behind them but are probably overstated. There needs to be a clear pathway to reasonable profits before I buy in again even though the fundamental demand for Ceres's products should be there over time.

I think that the current gap between the share price and the offer price is down to three things (1) the time value of money to completion, (2) the risk that the court does not approve the deal and (3) the risk that one of the lenders breaks ranks. At the time of announcing the funding agreement, Wood pointed out that there were still exceptional conditions that needed to be satisfied for the deal to go through AND that these conditions were outside the control of both Wood and Sidara. I think that the chances of the Court not approving the deal are low despite the fact that the number voting in favour was low as a % of all shareholders (as distinct from the % by value). As for the lenders, this too seems a remote risk. The only possible way this could make sense is if a lender was overcollarteralised in relation to its loan or otherwise felt that it would somehow be more advantageous to seek early reapyment of its money now as it believe there was a greater chance of it not being paid out if it waited. Given that Wood's financial position has been improved and it has continued to win contracts, this seems a remote risk to me. Having said all this, the shares are at the "wrong" price for a zero risk situation.

Have read the report. Fairly damming. Was a shareholder in Ceres earlier in the year and sold out in stages. No rush to buy back in. Not expert enough to counter the negative report.

I wonder whether the share price action is basically market makers taking a small turn ie buy 23p and sell 24.5p then repeat. I would have thought that any lose holders who bought in around the pre suspension price of 18p or so would have traded out by now or are committed holders. The other question is why there are still shorts in the stock. To me this only makes sense if the shorts were established above the offer price so that the risk of being short is one of failing to maximise your profit by closing out at the current level rather than making a loss. So it sort of makes sense if you have say gone short at 40p to hold on just in case the whole deal falls apart, however unlikely that might be.

I think it is risk reward. Although @Kat you say that , based on my logic, I should be even less inclined to buy if the share price falls further, this is only true if the information available changes. There must be a level that all potential investors are prepared to buy more shares based on the existing set of facts. You just need to be paid more for your risk. For example, based on all known information, the risk is significantly lower than when the shares were say 21p as we have subsequently had the positive vote, the lenders have agreed to the refinancing and the first tranche of the Sidara funds have been provided. So on this basis, and without new negative information, it would make perfect sense to buy more shares at lower levels.

Like others on this BB I am a bit surprised that the price is not higher after yesterday's funding announcement and would have expected 25/26p. The fact that it is struggling to make this price suggest that there is still some residual concern that one of the lenders break's ranks and asks for its money back and the whole deal falls through. On the face of it this does not makes sense, except in one circumstance and that is that one or more lender has better security than the others so that it makes it economical for it to pull the plug if it gets worried that Wood might collapse. I think this should be very long odds. So what is possibly putting the buyers off is (a) most are probably already long and see no reason to increase their holdings just in case and (b) we are all looking at the same cheap share price relative to the offer and because we do not have total visibility why this is the case we have decided or many have decided to leave it alone. I last topped up around 23p but would be reluctant to do that again unless the price fell back to this level or lower without any new news.

A counterbid is very unlikely but not totally impossible.

The remaining conditions include Court Sanction next year which is highly likely to be achieved. The biggest risk is that something goes wrong with the funding agreement which would then automatically allow Sidara to walk away. Given the work that has gone into this this too seems unlikley but if Wood's financial position was seen to deteriorate further this might be a possibility. There is also the anti trust and regulatory stuff but again I do not see this as a major issue. So for me it is down to the funding. If one is 100% certain on this then the shares are surely very cheap at 24p or less!

Does anyone know when or if the Sidara initial tranche of funding will or has been provided or if not yet provided what the timings and conditions precedent for its provision is. If you take a look at the Sidara mini site there is a huge amount of documentation which seems to contain lots of conditions precedent to be met before the funding is unlocked.

While it would be surprising if the deal unwound now given how assiduously Sidara has persued Wood, if fee that the share price is telling us something other than the discount for the time value of money until we get paid. Any ideas?

There will continue to be an element of uncertainty unti the Amendment and Extension agreement has been signed. It effective date is by 31/12/25 or such later date as agreed by Wood and Sidara. The signing of this agreement triggers the first tranche of the Sidara money. No signing, no money and no deal ! Given that I think it is everyone's interest to get this done, I am not sure why it has not been signed by now as all lenders had agreed. The share price is saying that this will go through but there is a discount of perhaps 2p from the "correct " price which the shares should be trading at for the slight chance that something goes wrong. I sincerely hope not!

I would tend to agree although given the funding requirement it might take a bit longer to put together an alternative bid. Anyhow, it is very clear that such a scenario is not at all anticipated.

I should have added another factor; a negative FCA ruling and/or a fine. However if there was something really serious in prospect Sidara would have made this a condition of its offer - It has not as far as I can see. And I am sure they would have spoken to the FCA. Sidara cannot change their price again now.

Having come this far and spent squillions on their own DD, I would be astonished if Sidara did not cough up the promised cash. I think the discount to 30p represents:

1. Opportunity cost of money until completion

2. Slight chance of anti- trust ruling - Sidara and Wood have been working on this and I very much doubt there is a big issue here or this deal would not have got this far

3. Slight chance that Court will refuse to ratify the deal. I think given the numbers voting in favour this is very unlikely despite the large number of shareholders who did not vote. They were given the chance to do so and I think that is good enough.

4. Technical factors - basically a combination of MM trying to make a buck and the unwinding of CFD as derivative positions

I think that there is a very slight chance of a counterbid although clearly there is nothing in the current share price for this. Any bidder would probably have to offer 35p or more and come up with a similar financing package to Sidara. It would also need to be unconditional to get Board approval.

I bought more stock at 24p and would do so again at that level. There is a huge amount of vested interest to get this deal to completion. Even if this was at the end of June next year that is still good upside. As others have noted the shares will creep up towards the bid price over time but will remain below it for months absent another bidder.

@ICE got it wrong and while he was strident in his views and I disagreed with him on pretty much everything , he was entitiled to them. Obviously we all wish he had been correct and Wood was taken out at a much higher price.

Can an alternative bidder still put a bid in before the deal is sanctioned next year. I think that this is a low probability in any case but do others think that this is still a possibility ...obviously the share price is saying not!