Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Why so cheap.......below book......
Probability of deal going through
https://www.independent.ie/business/media/inm-small-investors-needed-to-approve-sale-38077020.html
See small investors are apparently important to get to the votes needed - my view would be that alot of people are sick of how depressed the SP has been that they roll over even the deal is so cheap
Big Q is the cost basis these folks had - D O'Brien can suck up 500m loss but can others take a % hit
Agree - deal looks like a song.... Would have expected a minimum of 180m.... Have done ok out of this but expected more upside
Anyone have an idea around what would be a reasonable take out price for INM? We've known for a long time its undervalued be interesting to see what the go private price might - 50% premium to average SP over the past 12 months?
INM is now a japanese style net-net....not many of those around.....selling well below liquidation value...ignoring cash its selling for 4 times normalized earnings...Mr.Market is dejected and depressed as no news seeps out about the ODC investigation.
I bought a bunch today at 0.06........the ODCE investigation & ensuing lawsuit settlements provide finally a nice catalyst. This point in time I would argue is peak pessimism. Second level thinking here would YES things are bad (ODCE & data breach lawsuits) but not SO bad INM should be selling below liquidation value. I'll be buying more in the coming days.
INM will need to move criminal & civil responsibility to its ex-Chairman & largest shareholder. Given the information out there it certainly appears like Leslie Buckley is in big trouble..................then the question becomes what involvement did DOB have in the matter which will be harder to prove IMO.
In regard to INM the legal question is what liability falls on its shoulders for the actions of what appears now to be a rogue Chairman acting not on behalf of the enterprise but rather its largest minority shareholder.
Great drama but not good for share price. For now 0.08 seems to be the bottom it bounces off.
Would love to know what the Sunday Business Post fetched in the private markets!?
Worst case scenario INM is found guilty of corporate governance failures that the board allowed its chairman & by extension its largest shareholder to exert undue influence to the harm of minority shareholders. There will be a fine. Central Bank fines for serious failures of AML laws for Ulster were like 3.3m. Thats the max fine here + legal fees.
INM has done a good job now shifting & warehousing to a certain extent blame on Leslie Buckley's door because quite frankly from everything I've read thats where it should lie. INM's remaining board members were guilty of complicity while the management CEO & CFO actually raised alarm bells, to their immense credit, through the correct the channels.
The true cost of this exercise is that its pushed out further the chance of dividends & buybacks while distracting management attention from right sizing the business. I'm a bull at 0.85 and will buying like crazy at 0.75.
How much lower can the SP price go...........INM had 91.5 in cash EOY 2017, by now I would imagine that they probably now have 105m in cash on the balance sheet given est. 2018 EBIT of 28m so 14m H1 2014 = 105m
Today the market cap hit 110m..............with 105m of cash in the bank!!!......its getting close to a Japanese style net-net
Times article today - anyone know if the building ownership & sale is accurate? See below https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/inm-should-consider-finding-a-buyer-gzxk9g0kl Mr McClean is well regarded within the group for having skilfully steered the Telegraph during very difficult times. His parting achievement was moving the newspaper�s offices to a new building. The existing headquarters, with 70,000 sq ft of prime office space, was put on the market this week with a price tag of �21 million (�24 million).That will make a welcome addition to the publisher�s �91.5 million cash pile. Take that cash amount, and the expected proceeds of the Belfast sale, from the current �146 million market cap of INM and you get a company throwing off �28.5 million a year in earnings which is effectively valued at �30 million.
Not good to see Rae go however Paul Connolly helps "De-O'Brien" further INM..............a good thing.....though would prefer O'Brien's stake to go but perhaps this is a precursor
From report looks like good financial discipline with cash pile - looks like they paid 10 x earnings for Surpreme Stationary - 4.7m acquisition cost on 400k + of earnings - and would think that unlike a lot of deals there will be genuine synergies if only in distribution costs
If on deposit with Bank of Ireland for example corporate deposits are 0% last time i checked
Top line revenue drop is concerning as always. Lets see if INM has enough perceived quality that they CAN put some material behind a paywall. I'm not fully convinced they have enough perceived quality. Get the sense they took 2017 as an opportunity to get some bad news squared away in the accounts when the other compulsory one off hits were being taken too like libel,CEO pay-off....they've 'chosen' to write down Belfast Masthead , make significant pension top-up payment. This all creates a good YOY net income comparison for new CEO/Chairman moving from 2017 into 2018. They've kept cash pile under 100m which keeps loud chorus of dividend hunters subdued. Not trying to claim here they're in complete control of a business in clear secular decline but think 2017 was a year to squeeze all the bad news into.
How is it cute? Neither is getting any cash from the company (no dividend), suppressed share price might help if one or the other looks to take private but a premium to average share will need to be paid perhaps 50% premium. So looking at it and speaking about investing at only these levels 0.09 / 125m market cap. I think an investor is looking at an asymmetric trade here at these levels, it simply can’t grind much lower. Two positive catalysts both suiting DOB/DD would be enough for a good return - (1) resumption of dividends (2) taken private with share price premium What would be the bear or sneaky DOB/DD case (in my valuation I already build in slow cyclical decline in revenues so something else)?
ODCE have Buckley in crosshairs - Pitt has done a great service to the common shareholder. DOB influence has definitely been clipped. INM dipped again to 120m market cap on Friday - I�ll happily buy all day long at each slide to that sort of level. End of year 2018 INM will have 120m in cash in the bank!!
Market Cap at �127m, cash pile c.�100m, even impaired full year profits still prob �25m You can pick this thing up for free practically In terms of M&A deals what premium to share price is considered reasonable?
Interesting to watch INM trading on these types of P/E with cash on the balance sheet, profitable & relatively low debt - does anyone have access to this article below on seeking alpha pro they could send me? The Most Undervalued Company In Europe - Independent News & Media Plc - on seeking alpha pro Wonder is INM the classic Benjamin Graham cigar butt - cheap with a few puffs left......