Member Info for Legalwolf

What I like about Bres is that sense of "its only a matter of time". Therefore, even if it doesn't pop or start a re-rate now (because this DFC grant doesn't land), then its just a case of waiting until that does happen, rather than the "boom or bust", or "now or never" scenario that you have with most AIM shares.

I should also add that its not just about the damage done to date (in terms of dilution taken on already), but also what dilution will come in the future, either side of the financing. And if they don't get the financing over the line, or there are delays, then GCAT will continue to operate by dilution, whether through existing facilities (such as ORCA) or placings. Therefore, I'm going to wait to see how all these various issues and questions resolve themselves, a wait which I think will take us into Q4. So far, 2023 looks like being a repeat of 2022. All imo and dyor

Just listened to it. The following are some of the things that I noted in terms of the issues that are most important to me:

1) Prospectus - submitted to FCA with approval. The Prospectus WILL give GCAT headroom to raise additional equity funding alongside the Royalty financing. RM declined to confirm how much dilution will be involved through the Prospectus. This will only become public once the Prospectus has been approved.

2) Financing for the $10.5 million will now be via Royalty over the life of mine rather than pre paid gold. They have options for the remaining $3 million needed for the expansion, including ORCA and Philoro. The ORCA £4 million is still in play.

3) The current (i.e. pre mine expansion) production target is 600oz/month and 1800oz/quarter.

4) The ME settlement is in three stages (as per the RNS). The first stage cash component has been settled, they are now on the second stage of $600k which needs to be paid (but RM did not recall the deadline for this payment to be made). ME have the option to take the third and final payment in cash or shares - this is being negotiated.

5) RM (and GKG) will be getting back the shares that they have loaned to ME.

I think there is clearly huge dilution incoming here, the extent of which will only be revealed through the Prospectus. The current low production is unlikely to put them into a self sustaining situation, particularly with the monies owed to ME.

This will remain so even after they get the financing - hence why there will be headroom in the Prospectus for more equity raising.

I'm glad - relieved even - that I have decided to wait until the Prospectus is issued, and I will now add the need to wait for the financing RNS as well. I believe only at that stage can you assess the extent of the damage done by OCIM walking away, in terms of how much cheap shares and overhang will be left behind, which in turn will determine when you are likely to see share price appreciation as an investor. All imo and dyor

Do people really believe a sale of Molopo is on the cards? I don't, a disposal maybe, or a cheap giveaway, but I'm not sure we're going to get a value enhancing sale or JV? But success or failure here isn't going to be decided by Molopo.

HeimlichIII - that was funny. Actually, 9p is arguably realistic if these projects weren't fantasy land.

If you want a laugh Bunsen, just take a look at the trades since the QA. I mean, according to you, big things incoming here in the next 2-3 months, but I can only see big sells so far. You better hope 9p holds.

By the way, I have noticed from your posting history on TNT that you like to target posters in this manner and that this is your MO.

SoG - I think a few of us are in that camp. Once bitten, twice shy and all that....

I would have thought that MM will want to let it go again at some point. It's poised to pop and the pattern remains bullish (bull flag).

And to be clear, I'm not knocking GCAT. I'm actually a little frustrated at the time being taken over the Prospectus, because I decided at the start of the year that I was not willing to risk investing here in advance of it being issued (for the various reasons I've already covered). So I want to see it approved and issued! And I'm sure that I am not the only one. That being the case, shareholders here should also want to see it issued asap, if that removes a barrier to a sizeable section of the market willing to invest in GCAT?

Those in the telegram with RM should emphasise and make this point clear to him, if he doesn't appreciate it already. The delay over the Prospectus is impacting on sentiment and confidence, and needs explanation from him. All imo

Well, IF we maintain this into close, then will this give us our first green candle on the weekly since the initial rise? If so, whilst still in consolidation, it's a very encouraging start to August.

They don't always get it right, and there are plenty of examples of Director and Management buys on AIM, which remain at a loss. Maybe the landscape looked a lot brighter in April when she bought those shares. If I recall, it was around the time of interest from the Canadian bank and when they were doing the scoping work at CLP. Clearly, if the company was scrambling around for a placing before this Landstead agreement, then again, the fact that the Chair made a sizeable investment in April meant that she did not foresee that development either?

But equally, it could be that big newsflow is indeed on the way, which is why the Chair was okay to proceed with the Lanstead agreement.

I would expect at least a test of the ATH of 28/29p. If market conditions are favourable, then 40s might be on.

Looks like it might be breaking out of a pretty long consolidation if anyone is interested. (It's expecting a big grant from the US Govt to land any time now, so this move might be in anticipation of that - or it might just be technical).

5.5 on the Ask. Think this will close well today and then its into anticipated news next week.

In terms of newsflow, is Bres generally a leaky ship?

As soon as Hurricane drilling is near enough confirmed for September, then I would expect this to retest the gap. We should get that confirmation in August, and I would hope the fomo created will then close that gap by the end of this month. A lot of shares in the uppers 3s and 4s have been taken already during this first test, and so when this next moves, it should start to hit and test 0.5 a lot quicker and for longer than it did during the first test, and especially as we will also be closer to the main event.

But that's just my thesis and let's see what actually plays out - with all this continuing 'strange' and at times unpredictable price action here.

That's the beauty, He1 has its own drill, so doesn't have to worry about the rains and the cost of retaining the Rig. The Rig has been bought so that He1 can and will continue using it in 2024. That is regardless of what happens in Q3. Not under the same time pressure (and cost implications and considerations) as Noble for example.

That all said, whilst we have the drill crew contracted, and other third parties (Baker Hughes), we want to at least get to discovery at Tai in Q3, even if we have to return after the rains to appraise it. That's actually a very nice scenario to be in?

Everyone has their biases. Therefore, if you are bullish on GCAT and invested, you will be quite happy for ramping posts to arrive daily and non stop. But when someone points out the negatives, then suddenly "they go on and on". I don't post on here daily like some, but when there is a RNS, and updated information on a share that I am interested in, then naturally I'm going to comment on it. Moreover, it's not for anyone to dictate to me when, what and how often I post, so don't even bother. Don't like the content, then just hit filter.

It's perfectly okay to focus on the positives. It's also perfectly okay to focus on the negatives. Simply because we don't know which of these will ultimately play out here. At the moment, GCAT is not at a point where one can say whether the positive developments will 'win', or whether the negatives will continue to dictate. Therefore, in my view, until this becomes clearer, you have to maintain focus on both positives and negatives, until one becomes more deserving of attention and carries more weight than the other. Not sure GCAT is out of the woods yet, and so I remain focussed on its negatives and not just its positives. But that's just me and this is not an exercise in synchronised swimming, so we can legitimately agree to disagree and go our separate ways in terms of decision making.

Why is it okay for some posters to send daily posts x 10 pumping this, and it's not okay for others to send occasional posts pointing out some difficulties? Is there no interest in balance or discussion, on a discussion board? Always amazes me how often those who have invested and have overlooked the negatives, then take umbrage when others post and point them out!

Absolutely Gavster - I've been saying as much on here for months. From an investor's perspective, the situation with share issuances right now is on par, I would argue, with ANY of the other major investment considerations here such as financing, JVs, gold production, mine expansion. Put simply, all of those other issues could be resolved favourably, but I would still be cautious about investing here without knowing at what cost those milestones have been achieved at, in terms of selling overhang.

We have to keep the eye on the ball here. None of these milestones are the end, they are the means to the end. The end is share price appreciation, and the probability of that happening will turn as much on how much bearish selling overhang is being created here and whether the bullish developments will power through it all, resulting in share price appreciation.

And if you know all this, then you can hardly be surprised or complain if positive newsflow doesn't result in share price appreciation (which is then sustained). I guess its hard to work it all out and keep your eye on the ball, if you can't even see the damn thing in the first place, because the Prospectus has not been issued? All imo