Geo politics5 Apr 2023 11:05
It’s funny as we know we’re closer than ever to news. The geo-political games have never been more nerve racking.
The TL govt have gone pretty much everywhere to plea for investment to enable the Island dream of everything coming home. Understandably they want to build a strong O&G economy, they’ve seen others, why not them. But there are some huge challenges with security of any pipeline coming back to TL across the trench - security being one.
China want closer to Aus waters, TL gives them that, hence already building debt on the island, their simple and effective model for years (just look at Africa & South America and the Chinese incentive for destabilisation).
But we’ve now got the AUS/UK/US sub agreement to hold and maintain western perceived stability. Well that’s now potentially two sets of subs that need a deep water port in a friendly country.
With TL going through elections next month has some of the chatter from Woodside been about pacification re: renewed feasibility studies, or are they now linking together the understanding that someone somewhere is going to have to seriously take a hit vs. Balance sheet to let TL have it all home, but what does that give them in return.
Be good to know others thoughts….on what they make think likely outcomes could be…..personally that’s better chat than tea leaf traders telling us where the day will finish. ;)