Member Info for LedZepper

Thanks for the feedback & info GW

The FCA don’t seem to have the resources to investigate more traditional forms of insider trading, let alone the more indirect forms. Tbh, this is simply an institution manipulating prices, which can all come undone if the subject company springs a surprise announcement.

From a high of 21.26% holding in ITV, GS has just announced its latest reduction to 15.25% Whilst there’s clearly no guarantee that they won’t increase their holding again, it appears that they’re committed to this offloading.

Is it only me that sees this as a positive, in light of previous posters’ complaints about price manipulation by GS?

Is it perhaps one of the reasons we’re seeing something of a recovery in the SP?

Regardless of any of these points, I’m surprised that this BB has been so quiet in the light of this new information. Any thoughts anyone?

This is definitely not good news. SP heading back to sub 10p territory imo

@CrystalBloke - have you considered averaging down? If you’re so far in the hole, it’s a clear option if you feel the share is massively undervalued at the current price. Apologies if I’m stating the bleedin’ obvious. GL

Don’t you mean caste iron? :0)

@MJFMetc Purely out of interest, since this is something I’m genuinely interested in: How do you know there are some posters that don’t hold shares?

Once I identify them, I’d like to give them a proper telling off!

PS I hold shares - although you probably already know that :0))

Could be speculation that they will be involved in CV-19 vaccine manufacture. Cadburyhill makes the case in his post on 15Apr.

Hopefully it’s proven that there’s substance in this. I’m a long-term holder, always been a believer in their pursuit of hay fever and peanut allergy trials - but delighted if their moneytree grows on Covid.

You’ll never go too far wrong by doing the opposite to what Questor suggests.

Whilst I agree that The Times is a better newspaper, it’s stock recommendations are simply rags.

I’m not a holder, but I have good sources at BA, and there are very strong rumours that Alex Cruz will be replaced. Can only speculate on the impact on SP until BA announce his departure & replacement.

Does the airline change course from being another Vueling? Or does it carry on in the same direction? His rumoured demise may simply be a “heads must roll” decision for all the recent ****ups under his watch.

Hope this helps

Having read through the last couple of days’ posts, I don’t recall seeing any mention of the recent story in The Times about a proposed increase in advertising minutes. I don’t subscribe to The Times online, so I can’t trace the story, but it makes sense that the Gov want to help safeguard the UK’s major commercial broadcaster. Any increase in minutage (esp Peak Time) will have a very positive effect on potential revenues.

What’s also worth remembering is that ITV own the two consistently highest rating pullers across the year: Coronation Street and Emmerdale. It always used to be the case that advertisers would aim to showcase a new campaign with a spot in Coronation Street, where it would (usually) also be seen by more people than in any other programmer on ITV’s schedule in any week of the year.

It’s impossible to attribute an exact value to this second factor, but any suitor will be well aware of the value of the Coronation Street brand. It was a key reason behind my investment.

ITV is seen (incorrectly IMO) as a UK-centric business, so the Brexit issue has caused disproportionate downward pressure on its SP. Once the issue has been resolved, we should see some decent recovery - if it doesn’t get snapped up first!

Largely due to procrastination, I managed to top up at 745p at the end of last week. Seriously thinking of selling off the UK biased part of my portfolio, but happy to HOLD Sopheon & the rest for the long run.

Impossible to know what the German buyer’s exact start point was for this recent buying spree, since I think it’s at 3% that they must notify the exchange. Nonetheless, accumulating up to 5% is pretty significant, so I would hope to see a price recovery (back up to c£10 would be nice) before Brexit knocks us back down again.

An over-reaction (oversold) in my view, I’m now regretting not topping up at 750p when I first read the RNS. Even at 840 it looks a reasonable price. This is definitely a long term play, so any dips like this should (IMO) be viewed as buying opportunities. The business is cash generative, and despite seasonal revenue blips, is still on course with its long term goals.

This buyback proposal has put an 80p cap on XLM shares for the next month. Looking at transactions over the last couple of days, it seems that I could sell my entire holding for something between 78.5 and 79.2 - which, even allowing for fees, is a discount of 2% against selling roughly 10% of my holding for the 80p commission free offer price.

So, depending on your view on what will happen to the XLM share price on 23 August, there could be an opportunity. I’m not sure that’s there’s a good deal of data on past occurrences (with other companies who’ve done the same thing), but my instinct tells me that there will be a SP drop to its natural price until the company’s half-year report in September. From the trading update, there didn’t seem to be anything other than “trading within expectations”. You could make the case that nothing other than the buyback offer has increased the share price from c.70p to 79.5p, and therefore the SP will fall back to low 70’s as soon as the Tender Bid has become effective.

With low transaction fees/commissions, a buyback price of 76p or less would make this a profitable strategy. At worst, I’ll have lost c.2% for getting this wrong, and I can live with that.

Can anyone make a case for XLM’s SP accelerating upwards from 80p post Tender?

Seems like the right decision to call off the Milton Keynes Hospital development. Eases pressure on debt/covenants and there’s (I suspect) nothing stopping Spire from re-engaging when Brexit is finally resolved - and that appears to be no time soon. Market reaction so far, albeit on low volumes, appears to be positive.

Perhaps your first and last points are related. Yes, I read it the same way.

Can’t help you with this PGiles, but I did want to thank you for all your informative input on this board.

Yes, directors topping up at 17.5 & 18 is reassuring. Further positive is seeing Blackrock continuing to build their interest to over 5% at these prices. I'm inclined to do the same, since it seems likely that AGY will have flexibility to adjust their Corporate structure (if even necessary) in the event of a hard Brexit, whilst their markets are largely EU and potentially US so there could be major currency translation benefits.

As long as you have the ability to trade in & out at short notice, volatility can be your friend. GLA

He must’ve been waiting for my post, lol

I should have known. I’ve migrated from iii where the RNS data was a little more accurate. Where’s Ory’s reassuring words, though?