Member Info for Leapgrog

Somut fishy goin' on here. Hmmmm.
Any corporate financialist with corporate bonds on his books had better take a second look because int rate hikes are back as inflation is not reponding.
Why did SC Bank go under? Not all the partying and LGBTQ+++ avocay - it was because 90% of its account customers were startups and they were having increasing touble meeting loan repayments and had to draw from their account. CAme a time the bank was facing a potential run on its reserves. It's reserves were largely safely invested in long-dated govt bonds ... which of course they'd havae to sell a a haircut since int rate rises.

LDI was the same story.

Any company - any bank - with exposure to corporate bonds must face repricing of risk. MArk-to-market every three months may not apply, but if customers want their money, they will be forced to sell.

Look at these wipeouts of the giants. LGEN down to 240 GBp !!!

What did they do for SV Bank yesterday? The Fed (the BFTP) has placed a guarantee on the value of regional banks' govt bonds AT PAR. Meaning, no haircuts and so no bank runs.
Will they have to extend this to corporate bonds? Do bears **** in woods? Is the pope a catholic?
Is this a bailout? Well it is pretty extraordinary govt action!
Willthe BoE adopt this policy? Do they want to avoid similar bank runs?

Now take another look at the LGEN share price - shafted by exposure to corporate bonds where risk has been repriced...and what happens if the gov.tguarantees the value of those bonds?

What is your opinion - I have a lot of LGEN and would be interested to hear your advice : buy more, hold, or fold?

Buffet doesn't mean just pile in when the VIX is on fire! He means don't let the fear of others put you off your contrarian conclusions, when you've done a good analysis job.

The comments here explain all and are well said. The news today - finally we get the truth we have long suspected - should be the final nail in the coffin of these miscreants. A management slearout and focus on service and truthful reporting can only come from a new BoD and senior executives.

The comments here explain all and are well said. The news today - finally we get the truth we have long suspected - should be the final nail in the coffin of these miscreants. A management slearout and focus on service and truthful reporting can only come from a new BoD and senior executives.

Ref "Complaint" - most justified! I fully support!! - long story here follows to offer my explanaton on today's price fall and why I bought in hoping for some profit before the ex date 27 Apr.

2022 saw record operating profits of GBP2.3 billion and a return on equity of 20.7% and LnG's highest Solvency II coverage ratio. It is a stock offering over 7% yield, that is trading in the 250s but worth in the 300s. What is the explanation for this?

Please correct / update me, but far as I can see:
- Debt and new insights that expect central banks to have push up rates further - LGEN's short term assets (£102.3B) do not cover its long term liabilities (£413.4B)
- AUM reduced by GBP225 billion to GBP1,196 billion - due not to a lack of appeal but due to 2022's falling asset values
- An actuarial update to the base mortality assumptions
- A rise in interest rates which increases revenue from cash balances
-> A 19% decline in operating profits as a result of these ups and downs

- Its revenue is 70% focused on UK in an evolving world economy that discounts value in Brexit
- Its earnings are of low quality, as desribed above.

Given the price after today's collapse takes it to lows of Sep '22 and Oct '20, and accepting the criticisms above, I bought 8,000 at prices 252 - 252.9. Price as I write is 253.3. Ex-div date is 27 Apr for 13.93p a share. Am hugely overweight now, but I've noticed that price rises towards ex date by more than the divi - might be wrong - so will sell next month.
Taking all the above into account, plus seeing that price action has taken it to

And should go. I sold at down 2% on those results for a small profit. Huge dissapointment. What I like most about ITV is the AdVentures Invest division. That is the kind of idea-into-action that Britain does best.
As for the rest? You can't sell the Studios without castrating the company.
Just have to admit that it is always going to be a straggler until in better times itr gets eaten up. But I can't wait for that now.
So dissappointed.

What's gone wrong this time - why the block listing of 3,000,000 new shares?

Not sure Peter H appreciates the possibilities with AI, but then again not sure the CEO appreicates the difficulties of building your own AI.
But I would say that a PE of around 20 is OK and a yield of 4 to 5%.
So in the 870s would be ok for a share price right now.
I bought 2,000, fingers crossed eh.

I can't show a link, but they've cancelled twice - take a look

It is not possible at the moment for America to "drop a nuke on Russia" because Russia would drop one right back. So no...however...

We know how long it takes for a Russian nuke to lift off, fly and land on Washington. What the Americans are working on is a way to incapacitate all Russia's 6,000-odd missiles (of which it's sure half and more are dummies), before launching its own. And a technology to track the hypersonics which fly so fast and on random-number-generated flight trajectorie that they cannot currently be detected, and blast them out.

This is why America cancels arms-limitations talks.

My speculation purely...

Can I make a comment? The one thing that marks out newbie or failing traders is that their emotions interfere with their brain-power.

It is just another way of saying, "can we have a bit more decorum and analysis please, and less of the back-biting?". there's no point, readers of a cooler disposition will think this is a school playground!

He never does - have you ever seen Lavrov laugh? But he's not dying either. And the share price move that seems linked to specualtion on his health, most likely isn't at all.

Just as the Americans pulled out of their previous wars, so it seems to me they are pulling out of this one. Talks are underway. That's a more likely explanation ... what say you?

Get out while you can

The lurch up then down are for completely different reasons. As I don't really believe in coincidences, I would add that although completely different, they are not unrelated - someone got wind of the Amazon announcement and timed that in after the good news, just the time to sell.
It's called insider trading.

The shares are worth 180-250, depends on what earnings return once normal economic life restarts in a year or two. Till then consider selling to buy back later this year

Trading at 46.4% below SWS estimate of its fair value
Earnings are forecast to grow 18.56% per year

demand falls away with rising prices, therein lies the problem

Not true anymore that a euro is a euro. There are two euros, distinguished by their interest rates. Italy is in trouble. EU proclaims solidarity and support but cannot rise to the challenge of Italian banks. Whither the euro.

"had of shown"
bad English...please!

Earnings are forecast to decline 5% (average of analysts exectations).
I can see that inflation will leave less money in people's pockets, they'll be looking to cut expenses, even mandatory like car insurance.
The SP left its long-term trajectory at start of covid as less going-out would mean fewer accidents and higher profits. Now the SP is back on the long-term uplift.
I'd have thought that higher fuel costs would discourage travel and lift margins? Why are earnings expected to decline?