Economic thoughts from US5 Aug 2024 18:29
Worth bearing in mind NASDAQ recovered from 10% down lre open to current 2.9% down
We are not in a recession now," according to Ms Sahm herself, inventor of the rule.
She told CNBC on Monday that "the momentum is in that direction".
But she added: “A recession is not inevitable and there is substantial scope to reduce interest rates.”
Others are equivocal about the jobs data.
"While the report was bad it wasn’t that bad," said Mr Shearing.
"It is likely that Hurricane Beryl contributed to weakness in July’s payrolls figure. Other data painted a picture of a labour market that is cooling, but not collapsing," he said.
He added that there appeared to be "no increase in firings" while a "modest" decline in average weekly hours worked in July "does not scream 'recession'".
For Simon French, chief economist and head of research at Panmure Liberum, after digesting the US jobs data it's time to take a moment.
"Stepping back, have we suddenly re-appraised the health of the world’s biggest economy? No and nor should we."
But he added: "It is another data point at a time when liquidity is thin and you’ve got a lot of things to worry about."