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GCAT not GGP I meant ... Mybad :)
Jersey
My comment re the "only show in town " relates to the interview where he indicated they had been in" exclusive" talks for months. He also articulated that after the last financing collapse he the company had lost a lot of credibility in the financial markets and it had been difficult to get people to re-engage . His words were they were starting " below zero " It's some where in the first 10 minutes. So if the current financing falls through they will back into the market ...yes with some more info in terms of mining plan and geos but after another suspension. Resurrecting interest for the 3rd time ? Not sure that flies
Tis true they have new info folllowing the request of the lender. What they don't have is an agreed Royalty rate. The upper hand is with the other side here. Yes they will want to do a deal but GGP will be desperate
The lights going out comment is a clear possibilty if they can't land a finance package. They won't be able to fund the expansion. Yes they could continue with the open ground mining for a while but the cash at hand position and cash burn may well be unsustainable . When they publish the results we shall be able to see if thats the case
As you say its all my opinion Time will tell how it plays out. That was just my take of listening to the Stockbox interview.
GLA LTH
Robbie also said explicitly that the funding will close "1st quarter 2024" . See minute 21.24 on the Stock Box interview.
That.s a long way off and assumes the funder comes through and the monies are only available after any conditions precedent have been met. There is still a lot of risk on the financing but more importantly it will be clear to the Funder that they are the only show in town, The "delay" in funding was driven by the funders requests for more geos and a better mining plan. He has put himself over a proverbial barrel. I fear the Royalty rate on the Financing is going to highly highly punitive. Why would the finance house not drive the hardest of bargains. If they pull its lights out and the management reputations are so shredded they will fear not working again. They will thus fold and accept a poor deal. It's human nature .
I have been in an out of this on the back of the suspensions and poor comms . Won't be back in until I know the financials properly on the mine expansion with the Final Royalty in play. Hopefully the suspension ends quickly if it doesn't it will surely mean that there is a bigger going concern issue because the finance has fallen over during the suspended period
Interesting times
Well Worth a listen . FG far less waffly and academic than in the past. At last seems to be focussed on Monetisation. Gives the impression they are talking to multiple potential partners. My confidence level that this has real legs in the long term is increasing .
Lets get real. No JV partner (worth partnering with) would sign into a JV agreement until the imminent results of the lift is known an Flow rates established before or after needing to plug the field .
So the sequence logically is ... Lift sucessful or not
Plug needed of not
Flow rates established
Then signature the JV against a back drop of knowing the commercials
I think thats a 4 to 6 week window.
Hopefully its good news on the flow rates as thats what drives the real value creation
GLA LTH
Shortshrift
I think the update will be somewhere betwixt your too extremes ... as Roland oft says " we are dealing with rocks " I wouldnt be surprised if the lift hasn't gone quite to plan and we get a delay of some sort ... As for the JV that's just not happening until they know what the actual output is. No one is going to invest in devloping the field when they are this close to knowing what the fracking actaully delivers in the real world. I don't believe the line that the JV is not dependant on the current results from the field
Fingers crossed it all comes good. Its the time for patience
GLA LTH
Finally we get an update that audit has been completed. I for the life of me can not see why it took so long to complete. Especially as the main underlying issue seems to be related to tge timing of revenue recognition.
RNS confirms cash position is OK.
The management of this share has caused a big confidence shock. Wouldn't be surprised if we see a drop when trading resumes as peops vent their frustration but hopefully after that the share price will rebuild because this has historically been a cash generative business with lots of IP .
My gast remains flabbered at how long it has been suspended. Even allowing for the complexity of any software integration they were undertaking
GLA LTH
One would like to think that prior to the award of the grant that there was some kind of external scrutiny that sees some kind of long term sucess. I have always thought its the EV batteries where the big money resides so fingers crossed they can get this to a point where they can sub licence etc to monetise the large solid state cells.
Good news I guess ..no more delays . Let the artificial lift begin :)
All
Anyone aware of the inner working of the JV in terms of access to Telfer
The RNS today states " Subject to a positive Feasibility Study and Decision to Mine, Havieron may leverage the existing Telfer infrastructure and processing plant"
So is that "MAY" leverage in that its' a right ... or "MAY" leverage in that its a possibility ? If it's a "right' then the linkage betwict Haveiron and Telfer is mandated and that gives SD huge negotiating leverage
I can't help thinking Newmont will see Hav as a great way and quick to demonstrate the value in their Aquisition. They will either "off load" Have and Telfer and that will create value cf the recent report ( the logical strategic buyer is GGP) or they will buy out GGP. It looks with patience its a head you win tails you win situation from the current share price. Just requires patience
The interviewer was very poor. There were questions on timing and title that needed to asked and he didn't . In fairness the New CEO answered what was asked of him but he is clearly inexperienced on the " corporate" side and basically an operator . Nothing wrong with that given the stated aim is to get into production. I think the PR advisors missed a trick as they could of briefed him on the key comms points that would be expected and he could have bridged into them
Alas not so we know the "what", they are working on the "how" with the DFS and FID just no scooby do on the "when " because of the Native Title issue.
I am in too deep to back out now alas but still minded to think "Its Aus ..Title will be OK " Shares stuck in bottom drawer until next year GLA LTH
A good interview. Has to build confidence. None of the 'weasel words" and pre positioning and caveating that is usually seen with these AIM Life style CEOs. Ayling has always given me the impression he wants to go from exploration to production. That Hainan are still on side and the Mali Government seem positively engaged augers well. Fingers crossed it becomes a fully signed deal in the not too distant future. GLA LTH
All
Any petrotecheads got a view on the RNS quoted 130K to 150 SCFD stabilised gas flow pre the lift . Is that a good base to work from ?
GLA LTH
A pathetic management purchase of shares....I was just thinking I might do a bit of bottom fishing but with the CEO's obvious complete lack of commitment I will pass. Seldom does a Management Purchase hold back a share this one does ! ....total "unselfawareness " of what ones actions signal
I am confused .. the resource is there ( worth 100s of M USD ) . the infrastructure is in place to get from mine to port to sea..There is a tier 1 offatke partner lined up .. yes we are pending some permits but this is Australia so common sense will prevail . 18Million Market Cap to me is nonsensical even with some doubts on Management . as I say I am confused
They are producing gold with decent uptime and recoverability so the production is efficient . They are making real money because of the resultant low all in compassing costs which means they are now commercially financiable .
I would expect they can get the financing done once the FCA approve the the prospectus. Fingers crossed they are setting themselves up to expand the Operation and step changed the share price
Happy enough now :)
All
Lots of people cheesed off by the delay to first production and anyone who has been in the stock for a while will of got wound up by the silver failures.... but I am here for the Iron and I am struggling to see what will stop this going into production in 2024
It's Australian with good Road to port access. Portside access is secured. it's "easy mining " as its strip and collect and the ore is close to the surface. AA lined up for offtake. I guess there is a risk over "Aborginal" sign off but that usually gets sorted and it's in an already mining area.
9.1Mt of ore resource at about 100USD per tonne is the thick end of 1B USD of asset and I can't beleive the mining costs will erode that too much
Why is the Cap only 18M GBP seems a wait to production and the price should be much higher with a say 10 year life of mine . What am i missing ?
Good luck All LTH
I can't help thinking that FG would benefit from some basic media training. It's an Ok interview when preaching to the converted but its not going to get new investors into the stock. He had loads of opportunity to reiterate the performance gains previously released and restate the whole raison d'etre of QBT and exactly what " product"will bring monetisation
Frustrating as we seem to be getting close ... Patience as ever
Thanks for the Link Cadellin
I watched the full hour and apart from the disappointing ( but understandable) need to out source the production when it goes to scale , the management made sense and seem to be progressing on both Stearex and Goliath.
Its a long term hold but it looks like some peops are buying in given the price rise for the longer term gain
GLA LTH
Ok so since the dewatering can begin and if we assume the bat issue is over come and a mining licence issued then are there any historic indcators which give a feeling for how profitable mining could actually be?.
Anyone know what the AISC was when the mine ceased production. My understanding is it stopped producing because the Gold price was low and that was lower than the production costs. I don't think that would be the case today ? Am I right or wrong
Also in most fields technology has advanced leaps and bounds . i kinda get the feeling the old mine was a few knarly miners following seams they encoutered on route . That probably is ill informed nonsense based on a UK holiday taken decades back and a mine tour somewhere. Surely though today were they in the mine the ability to target more precisely where the seams lie hidden from view would greatly increase productivity.
Is my quaint Snow White and the Seven dwares meets a now Star Wars Mining light sable cloud cuckoo land ?
If they get producing at historic levels have we got ... well a proper gold mine on our hands . ? I can't see any sustainable premium for the fact that the gold is Welsh. Romantic nonsense what we need is just lots of a high priced commodity extracted at a reasonable cost. Does history suggest that can be acheived ?
GLA LTH