RE: Baron gone long on Enq - enough said !!10 Jan 2021 14:52
Ammu smacks of desperation
The 1m shock cut to production by Saudis is a game changer for oil prices. I think we will see $60 Brent next few weeks. At that level, we can expect FCF of $700m for 2021. This is a year of consolidation for Enq. Year end debt should be below $900m.
Enq gave a guidance of FCF above $27. They used 2020 to cut costs and get leaner. Higher cost production was terminated.
Debts could easily be fully repaid within 3 years on current production and prices. Worse case scenario, if no further drilling and production falls to a pessimistic 40,000 bopd by end 2023, but zero debts, how much is Enq worth then ? At least $2-3b, not $200m !!
And Two major differences between Pmo and Enq
1. Pmo had a hostile vulture lender who had a record undundisclosed short on the company
2. AB is a major shareholder in Enq
Exciting times ahead for longs