RE: API vs EIA8 Dec 2018 11:44
About 5% of annual production is lost to natural decline .... or @5m bopd. Project can take five years to come on line. The downturn in global exploration and development investment 2014-17 will therefore start affecting supplies 2019 onwards, the start of the supply crunch. Prices could go over $100 very quickly.
It's interesting that the Zama find was awarded discovery of the year in 2018. There are not a lot of new big oil reserves being discovered and at some point, oil starts becoming a scarce resources.
Check out the oil demand graph over the last 20 years .... pretty much growing inexorably, now over 100m bopd. Are oil reserves growing inexorably. .. nope !!!