The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
USD/bbl. 108.48 +0.95 +0.88% Jun 2022
Looks like divis are on the way !!
Current P/E based on 2021 results is just under 2 .... based on 2022 it will have a forward P/E of @1
This is crazy .... P/E should be at least 6 even conservatively. Reason is that historically this is due to ENQ being high risk because of historic high debt and climate concerns... with N Sea being wound down.
With Russian invasion and Brent over $100, ENQ could be debt free sometime in 2023, and N Sea is now part of national security. Climate is taking a back burner for the foreseable future.
That's why I think this will multibag by 6 in 2022.
Forget the 60p party, I am looking forward to the 200p party !!
All imo
DYOR
Current P/E based on 2021 results is just under 2 .... based on 2022 it will have a forward P/E of @1
This is crazy .... P/E should be at least 6 even conservatively. Reason is that historically this is due to ENQ being high risk because of historic high debt and climate concerns... with N Sea being wound down.
With Russian invasion and Brent over $100, ENQ could be debt free sometime in 2023, and N Sea is now part of national security. Climate is taking a back burner for the foreseable future.
That's why I think this will multibag by 6 in 2022.
Forget the 60p party, I am looking forward to the 200p party !!
All imo
DYOR
Assume 10% of production is gas, unhedged
From Feb22 operations update presentation, say mid-target production in 2022 is 47,500
Annual production = 17.34m
OIL = 15.61m
GAS = 1.73m
OIL Hedged @$70 = 8.60 mbo = $602m
OIL Unhedged@$100 = 7.01mbo = $701m
GAS Unhedged@$200 = 1.73mboe = $346m
Total sales = $1,649m
Operating = $430m
Capital = $165m
Decommissioning $75m
Loan interest, say $100m
2022 FCF = $879M >> MKT CAP !!
THESE ARE VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES
Crazy valuation IMO !!
DYOR
106.71
I understand that
1. ENQ gets a premium to Brent
2. Gas sales are unhedged
Assume 5% of production is gas, unhedged
From Feb22 operations update presentation, say mid-target production in 2022 is 47,500
Annual production = 17.34m
OIL = 16.47m
GAS = 0.87m
OIL Hedged @$70 = 8.60 mbo = $602m
OIL Unhedged@$100 = 7.87mbo = $787m
GAS Unhedged@200 = 0.87 = $174m
Total sales = $1,563m
Operating = $430m
Capital = $165m
Decommissioning $75m
Loan interest, say $100m
2022 FCF = $793M >> MKT CAP !!
THESE ARE VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES
Crazy valuation IMO !!
DYOR
IamNotanAnalyst
Where did you get 30% as the gas mix ?
Well 6 months to June 21, gas/ condensate sales were $57.9m
Gas prices are @5 times higher in 2022.So I expect that gas/ condensate sales will be $580m if we simply pro-rata. So we would have to add this amount on to FCF, taking revenue over $2bn for 2022
Also my calcs were very conservative, both in terms of production and sale price . I've read article of N Sea oil now attracting a $3-4 premium over the quoted Brent as Russian supplies have been cut off to western companies. Also produCtion is likely to be much higher as capital/operating spend is much higher this year.
We could quite easily see $1bn FCF in 2022 .... this will result in a rerate for ENQ and this could multibag to £2+
What better hedge against rising inflation than betting in a small N Sea oil/gas producer ?!!
Ignore the daily noise and hold for 6 mnths - might be the best investment decision in your life !!
As always, DYOR
GL All
From Feb22 operations update presentation, say mid-target production in 2022 is 47,500
Annual production = 17.34m
Hedged @$70 = 8.60 mbo = $602m
Unhedged@$100 = 8.74mbo = $874m
Total sales = $1,476m
Operating = $430m
Capital = $165m
Decomminssioning $75m
Loan interest, say $100m
2022 FCF = $706M >> MKT CAP !!
THESE ARE VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES AND EXCLUDE GAS SALES
Crazy valuation !!
DYOR
From Feb22 operations update presentation, say mid-target production in 2022 is 47,500
Annual production = 17.34m
Hedged @$70 = 8.60 mbo = $602m
Unhedged@$100 = 8.74mbo = $874m
Total sales = $1,476m
Operating = $430m
Capital = $165m
Decomminssioning $75m
Loan interest, say $100m
2022 FCF = $706M >> MKT CAP !!
THESE ARE VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES AND EXCLUDE GAS SALES
Crazy valuation !!
DYOR
Annual operating cashflow =$3,916.5m
Less capital spend $1,300m
Less Interest $260m
Less divis $200m
NET DEBT REDUCTION = $2,156.5 !!
IMO
DYOR
with all the extra cashflow, Bressay could indeed be fast-tracked !!
60P party coming soon imo
GL All
that's equivalent of 4p on share price every month!!
From Dec 21 presentation, say low end 200kboepd production in 2022, 50% oil, 50% gas
50% of oil hedged @61.00, 66% of gas hedged @$26.63
Hedged oil daily cash = 50k @$61= $3.05m
Unhedged oil daily cash = 50k@$90 = $4.50m
Hedged gas daily cash = 66k @$26.63 = $1.76m
Unhedged gas daily cash = 34k@$136=$4.62m (say 180p per therm = $136 per boe)
Daily total cash = $13.93m
Operating expenses= $3.2m
Daily operating cash flow = $10.73m
Annual operating cashflow =$3,916.5m
Less capital spend $1,300m
Less Interest $260m
Less divis $200m
NET DEBT REDUCTION = $2,156.5 !!
IMO
DYOR