Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
When did you start as a stockbroker ? Paper price feed is a new one to me and I was on the floor until October 86....face to face dealing between brokers & jobbers, brokers in offices would ring the dealers on STX lines or radio requests / instructions on Pye radios. MPDS screens and then Topic screens would supply last traded level indications. We would use and update white boards or chalk boards in our dealing boxes on price changes to active stocks. But you’ve left me confused with paper price feed. Which company were you with Red ?
Addicknt, I have spent many years meeting with the various boards of mining majors as part of my former role in the city and I totally agree that BHP are a very likely acquirer, and not just because it’s a stakeholder. Rio & AAL have far better copper assets to satisfy future demand. All mining majors are macro focused and follow the same trends as each other. At every possible opportunity BHP speaks of its desire to be positioned for the energy transition and yet it remains exposed to carbon businesses (oil& gas/ coal) and does not have a copper project at the same size and scale as Oyu Tolgoi (RIO) or Quellaveco (AAL). The recent announcement that the planned Olympic Dam expansion has been shelved is perhaps the key to its intentions. All mining majors remain focused on capex discipline and are unwilling to sacrifice efficiencies and margins by moving further along the cost curve. Asides the grade quality & cost curve issues at Olympic Dam, BHP has been beset by labour issues, declining grades and water supply problems at its Chilean Escondida (57.5% owned) and costs are likely to rise towards US$1.25 per lb. BHP greener future is not secured with copper only representing 19% of 2020 FY EBITA and the company still reliant on Iron Ore (64% EBITA) Last year it spent US $394m on Oil exploration and only US$54m on copper exploration. So with Mike Henry only 10 months into his tenure and a burning ambition to position BHP correctly for the energy transition it appears that Solgold is perhaps the solution to the challenge. Rather than waiting for Carbon business disposal proceeds it would appear that the capex decision at Olympic Dam may provide sufficient balance sheet relief to preserve the capital discipline and permit the expansion of their copper business. Interesting times with plenty of potential outcomes to consider.
Too much volume yesterday to support to your MM theory( order driven mkt not quote driven) but I can believe that someone has maliciously sold aggressively into the market. Nobody with an ounce of decency or common would post a lump of 3.9m shares on the offer. Having very recently retired from a large trading house, that was not an error but used to manipulate the market. IMHO
This is of course an order driven system and not a MM quote driven system. Volatility has been caused by a heavy seller forcing stock out into a relatively quiet market. Nothing to do with trying to drum up business
There seems to be a popular misconception on this board and other chat rooms on the role that algo’s play on the book. The majority of algo’s are programmed to be non market impact and if they cross the spread to hit either the bid or offer they are effectively spoiling they chances of beating VWAP over the trade. For that reason they rarely hit either bid or offer. An institutional dealer can however adjust the level of aggression for an algo which can determine how the algo operates. The latest smart algo’s will surf all dark pools and liquidity venues and more often than not are tied to volume....to be 10% of total volume over all venues is fairly common. The real liquidity providers remain the market makers that conduct most of their retail business through the RSP and at the same time they’ll use the RSP to fulfill any institutional orders by tweaking the RSP price to be either the best bid or offer. Peel Hunt, Winterflood & Shore Cap do most biz in SOLG. They will charge institutional clients typically 9 bps for this ‘high touch’ service. The hitting of bids and offers in most cases are clients with DMA, institutions that are clearly not aloud to use the RSP and CFD providers. It’s easy to blame an algo or a machine for share price weakness but factually it’s often wrong. Algo’s are far more effective in liquid large cap names where the crossing of the spread doesn’t damage your chance of meeting or beating VWAP.
Not a lot going on with under 200k trading but I sense the seller will return today. The book doesn’t give any clues as it’s what’s on the sellers pad that matters. He hit every small rally yesterday and drove the price lower. IMHO this isn’t a badly handled sell order but an orchestrated attempt to get the price down, as was the posting of 3.9m shares on the offer.
Asides the heavy handed seller driving the share price down .....nothing has changed, you have a tier 1 asset of copper & gold, two of the worlds best miners on the register, the worlds largest royalty/ streaming business have provided up to $150m of funding ......these three companies have under taken extensive due diligence which is above and beyond, that any PI could ever hope to carry out. Time to relax and buy the dip if you’ve got the funds. Buy it when it’s out of fashion !
Schelm , wish I knew the answer but clearly no broker/ house is going slap an order of that magnitude on the order book as their compliance officer would create Merry hell. It’s all guess work but that clearly wasn’t a kosher way to post an order. In a perverse / contrary way of thinking ...that would be a great way of buying stock cheaply....by creating sellers
I personally think most of the volume is being printed by Peel Hunt & Winterfloods and that’s derived from their RSP machines. If you start seeing Goldman, CS , BoA or JPM printing volume then I would suggest that’s from algorithms. Algorithm suites are available to most institutions that do sufficient volume to cover the cost of connections (pipes being crude) about £10,000/ £20,000 PA. Commission is dependent on flow but normally 3-5bps. I really don’t think the seller has been using algo’s but a combination of high touch brokers (9-11bps) and DMA. Yesterday’s nonsense offer of 3.9m suggests a degree of malice towards either the share price or the company
Sadly Oyu Tolgoi has proved to be a troublesome project with estimated costs doubling and the project being delayed a good many years. Can I assume that Mr Marshall is no longer with RIO. That said the science of block caving is relatively new and I would assume that lessons have been learnt by the Oyu Tolgoi issues
This may be the end of the seller that’s been operating for nearly two weeks. Advertising the final piece hopefully. Also a lump of 350k sitting next to it which is probably another seller using a volume related algorithm