The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
It’s set up to be an interesting September.
Only the BoD know how close they are to announcing funding and then it is all systems go.
I think, now more than ever before, Oriole is in an incredibly fractious position outside of its control.
Without that outside investment there can be no further steps.
It’s could be the snowball effect and right at the top is the CIB.
- CIB , Bibemi JV
- share price rises ( more money from Lanstead)
- unlocks maiden drilling at CLP and increases resource at Bibemi )
- share price rises ( more money from Lanstead)
- potential elephant oil IPO and EIA ….. lol
- - share price rises ( more money from Lanstead)
Well that’s how I see it anyway.
@ Godofhellfire
In the post RNS interview on the CLP financing.
All we knew was
- the company signed a letter of engagement with the CIB for $1m for a 10% stake
- through discussions with the bank they said end of Q2.
- Oriole weren’t too fussed that it met this timeline as they said they only need it for September/October to start drilling but they did want to hit the ground running.
In essence , if the CIB doesn’t come in this month then yes it would cause operational delays to the programme.
It’s worth noting that at Bibemi the exploration license ends in September 2024, the next license they have to apply for is ‘exploitation’
This must be a clause in the agreement where they have to start mining a license after a period of ownership.
Hence why in the recent interview Tim talks about small scale mining at Bibemi and turning it into an exploitation resource. Basically because they have to to secure the license
After what’s been a relatively quiet 2023 so far which potential news on multiple fronts were almost at the end of Q3.
If the long awaited elephant oil IPO happens September 2nd then can could bring some extra cash in.
The EIA in Turkey has the potential to bring in several million as that royalty is worth a lot!
The path ahead remains uncertain but the letter of engagement from the CIB was signed in April so hopefully that comes in.
We know Oriole have been prepping drills targets at the more drill targets at Bibemi to build the resource to 500k Oz.
I’d expect those drill programmes will be released in September as oriole want to hit the ground running and this programmes may get the appetite flowing for oriole.
It’s been a long, hard road but the reason a lot of us invested were to see Cameroon (mbe) drilled in its infancy and now we are standing at the doorway to that.
Funding aside , it is an exciting time for Oriole.
I’d expect multiple news drops in preparation for the dry season in a few weeks
Let’s just wait for the BoD to deliver the project financing. They will be trying their upmost to secure it, it could be exceptionally close and then we can get excited about the 2023/24 drilling season.
GLA
Hawaii 5-0
To answer your question on Senegal.
As you said the JV concludes in Feb 2024 where Managem will own 70%
That could be an inception point for oriole to sell their remaining 30%
If not, and managem continue to explore that license then Oriole is either required to fund 50% of the costs to retain their 30% or their position will get diluted to a minimum of 10% NSR
What is a shame about Senala and Farè in particular, is that could have been developed into 1m Oz resource. The results have been amazing, similar to how chesser built theirs up and sold it could have been a similar template for Oriole.
That’s okay mate, I don’t need any affirmation from you.
I’m not trying to convince anyone, just writing down my opinion. All those things I have written yesterday are correct in the context that that’s what’s been said from the BoD, Eileen, that’s how much Oriole will receive from Lanstead. The information is right there.
I’m not making it up….
Don’t buy them on my recommendation, just seems odd that you would spend time writing on a board for a company you don’t want to buy shares in, yet you describe it as the next GGP?
Sounds like an oxymoron? The next GGP but you don’t want to buy in?
That’s bizarre but maybe you’re an odd chap?
Anyway Coyote, this road runner is off.
Meep meep.
1. First and foremost , raises are influenced by share price …. Orioles has been in the gutter for atleast 12 months. That’s not the BB….
2. 2/ “Quoting the CEO and CFO From 3/4 years ago”
Tell that to them, they are the ones that said it numerous times, sounds good on paper and attracts investors.
5. Dilution is why we’re at 0.10 of a penny…. Even Eileen admitted dilution isn’t good and no one likes it haha, she doesn’t like it herself and she put £195k in. The BoD acknowledged that raises/dilution and speculation on funding is why the share price is down the low. They admitted it…. It’s not just us.
6. The SP quoted - 02355 gives oriole £73k
For the month of august the SP has been 0.12/0.13 on average?
I’d say it’s pretty much going to be £30k - £32k. It’s not hard to have a ball park figure, give or take a few hundred pounds…..
If you’re such an optimist, dig your hand in your pockets, dig deep and buy some shares.
I’ve put my money on the line.
7. I said if it doesn’t come in by the end of Q4 I won’t be convinced.
You pump this BB as much as you like, it won’t change the fundamentals of the company.
Bibemi -
Talks on a JV - No other information
As it happens Coyote, shareholders were expecting money through different avenues, not just raises.
This wasn't something we made up, it was suggested by the BoD.
Now they can't control the market, which has been bleak. No denying that which makes it harder than before.
We haven't been running the company, a few people on a BB can't be responsible for the SP decline and you would be idiotic to think so.
Hunniford, (genuinely, no word of a lie) practically propped the SP alone from May - July. He is also frustrated with Oriole.
You're an investor from the Stratex days which means that money is gone. Question is, are you buying the cheap shares? and if not, why?
Cekim, take it easy mate. Enjoy the rest of your bank holiday.
Coyote, start buying more shares.
be interesting to see if that post gets deleted?
Nothing but facts.
No Optimism, No Pessimism
Just realism.
Coyote,
I wasn't going to come back until a potential CIB RNS however I couldn't let it rest.
The drivel posted on this BB has no dramatic impact on the share price. 3bn shares at mostly penal rates may?
In the earlier days as I'm sure you are aware, I could point you in the direction of numerous interviews from 2019/2020 which had Tim stating more then once that they had several million dollars tied up in Turkish assets and a Turkish legal case, this wasn't something that was just rattling around in the back ground, this was something they openly stated would bring in cash flow to help revenue. When you are rude to Mike and question his intelligence, people invested on the word of Tim and Bob who said 3-4 years ago Turkey could provide funding.
in addition, Initially the brokers at SP Angel in 2021 said that Fare alone would underpin the SP at 1.4p. Oriole is actually sitting on a gold mine at Fare, but IAMGOLD dragged their heels and didn't really progress the license in that time. That could quite easily be 1m oz of gold. if the share price had a base of 1.4p no one thought it would be sat down at 0.01? We all got caught out there.
Raises are a necessary evil in junior explorers, no one is denying that. The money to progress has to come from somewhere, unfortunately for Oriole they beat the legacy asset drum multiple times with no revenue from that. Of course the BoD would rather raise money through assets that's a no brainer.
In one breath Bob said that "Shareholders didn't understand, dilution isn't a bad thing" when they and Eileen openly admitted a year later that "dilution at Top Co kills the business". April was so profound for Oriole for this very reason. It wasn't the positive nature of the BB, it was the fact Eileen invested, CIB was a potential, Dilution was a thing of the passed.
This isn't me being negative this just factual information.
Cash balance in Oriole - £500k in April and most likely £250k in August.
The Lanstead subscription now gives Oriole £30k for August.... which a monthly cash expenditure of around £40-50k with the BoDs 25% salary sacrifice scheme. You see how for the next for months this does sustain itself.
So how does the company move forward -
Well, Oriole can't drill as the money doesn't allow for that yet so we continue to sit and wait for the CIB to come through and a Bibemi JV. Otherwise, you guessed it, it is cheese for Christmas.
The CIB -
I am speculating that this came around the time in February and the conference in Cape Town, initial deadline was end of Q2 (2 months after the RNS was posted) which i'm sure was a modest outlook, talks can take time but its been another 2 months with nothing? That's 100% (and still counting) for this investment to get across the line. Is that concerning potentially, but the RNS did say they were still in talks and would be expected in Q3. Still 4 weeks to close, beyond that, im not convinced it will happen.
“Think indefatigable optimism not congenial pessimism.”
What about undeniable realism?
***indefatigable optimism leads you to invest more… believe me.
Fair play Catbert, you put your money where you mouth is and topped up. I respect that.
I’ll do everyone a favour and stop posting.
See you when the CIB RNS comes in.
Ciao
Godofhellfire -
Yea that goes for the CLP as well. They would need the CIB to come through in order to drill.
That’s why I’m so concerned right now. Without the CIB and JV, Oriole can’t fund any drilling.
Without that share price catalyst, this Lanstead agreement doesn’t work how Oriole envisioned.
Historically Oriole have been onsite in Bibemi in September to get the new field season underway so they can start to drill mid to late September.
The last set of assays we saw were in September last year ‘Bibemi phase 4 results’
We knew there was going to be a quiet period for a year, which in AIM explorers is particularly tough as the market likes results. Also explains why the share price is struggling.
It could be my own failing expecting news to drop on the CIB or Bibemi JV but time is marching on. The CIB is 7 weeks past its original completion date estimate?
This month Oriole will receive £30,000 from Lanstead which, even with a 25% salary sacrifice scheme probably doesn’t cover the company over heads for a month.
If it continues then before you know it, it’s 2024 and we’re still waiting.
RimBob - if, when, you fly to Cameroon, make sure it’s economy. Don’t get excited at check in and bump up to Business, not even premium! Haha. With the company in a dire position and everything… makes sense right….
Https://youtu.be/QsXipez-iyA
From 3 years ago.
Pretty painful listen I won’t lie, some interesting bits in it.
Interviewer is direct and cuts through the bulls…
Yet to see 90% of what’s said in this interview materialise.
A point of note is around 30-35 minutes which talks about value and being undervalued.
Even back then they tried to push the same nonsense.
Share price and market cap don’t lie.
Also it’s interesting that when Bob brought Tim across he said we are in a bad way and have existing shareholders that need looking after.
That was 3+ billion shares ago
Lol
Hey mate ,
It isn’t but it’s by far my largest holding. Non intentional.
In a bid to average down I put in more money in, against better judgement but I didn’t see how it could keep getting worse….
Anyway
What this needs is great news after great news.
That can only be provided by Oriole
If that IPO goes ahead, not sure how long it takes Oriole to be able to sell their shares.
From memory they have 100,000 give or take.
I think they hold 0.80% of the company.
At $5 it could bring in $400k-$500k
Which would be incredibly helpful to the programme