Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
On average Lanstead should be selling 1.8m shares a day, which in reality would get absorbed quite comfortably.
That’s not always how they operate as they have their own business model.
It’s important to note that the price is above the benchmark price at the moment.
In regards to 1p. I’d love to be sitting on that price right now (£35m mcap) however there is still a headwind to get there. Warrants and Lanstead.
Again, Oriole is fully funded with exploration and financing. Sit and wait for 1p
I’d imagine, giving the potential most PI’s wouldn’t be selling however there is a lull in activity after December & January.
Crypto is also about to go through a super cycle so a few might be selling to put money in there.
My opinion is that Lanstead have started selling again, most likely the unknown trades we see are them.
Once drilling has been confirmed and there is a rough time frame for Assays this should get more interest.
Going from previous RNS’s on signature payments.
8/01/24
30/01/24
I’d imagine the final payment may come through today and we’ll be notified at a similar time to the last 2 RNS. Around 10:30. That’s my guess but may also come through in the next few days which is nothing to be concerned over.
Agreed, this is definitely one of the better plays on AIM this year.
For those invested, the only concern you should have in regard to Oriole this year is the tax you’ll pay on the profits and what you’re going to spend a lot of money on.
I agree Hunniford.
I think it’s a simple as :
Lanstead oversold their position in Q4. Their RNS showed they sold 23% in just 4 months. Given that’s almost 1/4 of their position in less than a 1/4 of the agreement.
Oriole went on the run from December and Lanstead rightly so, got caught with their paints down. (good)
Now we’re 6 months into the agreement , I’d imagine Lanstead will hedge their bets more wisely and not over expose themselves.
For those who said ‘death’ spiral (myself included)
This could actually be a growth spiral.
Plenty of news flow due throughout the year, most importantly drill results , trenching results and any potential JV news.
I believe, Tim said they were mobilising rigs for Bibemi but wanted to confirm drill targets with BCM as well.
I’d imagine we will get an update on Cameroon when that is confirmed and they are drilling. Trying to build the resource at bakassi to 1m Oz which I think is achievable
The final signature payment is due at the end of this month as well.
Mbe:
I saw on Twitter they were doing some structural ground work at Mbe to define the system. Hopefully that gets drilled this side of the wet season. Although I think the prelim work will mean it’s drilled after, I’m excited to see results from Mbe. It looks incredibly promising.
I think, if there is an update on the Senala JV. It will come early next week. My guess, Monday or Tuesday.
The JV is officially finished Feb 17th (Saturday) if it is a sale of the entire license or Managem wish to acquire the remaining 10% then I don’t expect money to change hands at this stage, however, I would like to think they know how it is moving forward.
They may choose not do anything with the license.
Senala has been a real shame for Oriole. Despite mega results at Farè, IAMGOLD didn’t prioritise the license. There is a clear pathway for a big resource there, just look at Chesser, similar geology and 10km’s away.
Let’s hope Managem have some spare cash after their IAMGOLD deal to buy this. Even a conservative $10m (10% = $2.3m due to the underspend) x 4
I could be in fairyland thinking along these lines but a deal like would see this re rate again ahead of Bibemi drilling.
Either way, Oriole has $2m in the bank by the end of Feb and $8m of exploration to come.
As well as any other potential JV’s following the mining Indaba.
@ginger hippo
I’m just joking, was meant more as a bit of fun than anything.
I’m expecting news before the end of Feb but no idea what that will be. In theory , out the 3 outcomes is positive , positive , neutral but I have a feeling the natural will be perceived as negative purely because this has been hyped up to be a major news catalyst.
Regardless of the Senala circus.
Bibemi drilling to start soon
$1.5m in Orioles treasury by the end of February
Plus monthly top ups from Lanstead.
The share price being low doesn’t necessarily benefit Lanstead. Them holding shares hedges against a rising share price makes it beneficial to Oriole.
$8m in exploration.
As I said last night.
One of the best plays on AIM in 2024
Try to avoid the daily noise.
$8m in exploration over two licenses.
Fully funded until August 2025.
Senala JV second option period is coming to an end in 2 weeks.
Signature payment confirmation Tuesday / Wednesday.
Drilling to start at Bibemi very soon.
It’s simple, buy and hold.
Selling 2m, 4m, 5m shares two months ago no one cared because the share price was low. Now because the share price is high and is associated with £10k, £15k & £20k people take notice.
Oriole is one of the best plays on AIM for 2024 and beyond for the reasons stated above. If you’re confident then accumulate and hold.
The directors aren’t not selling, they are getting more shares. Fundamentals move companies, drawing lines has little significance to investors.
In 4 weeks (20 trading days) we should find out what is going to have after this 2nd option period for Senala.
Outcomes -
Managem pay the outstanding cash balance approx.$2.3m to get to 70% ownership
Managem choose to stay at 60% whilst oriole retains 40%
Outright cash sale of the Senala license (most optimal for Oriole)
They enter a new JV agreement and Oriole remains a free carry
2/4 options involve significant cash to oriole. In the form of $2.3m or a cash sale for the remaining percentage.
That is potentially the next major news catalyst that I can see. Not sure what will happen with it.
No idea , a lot of those were from yesterday as well.
I don’t understand market dynamics enough to try and guess.
In recent weeks I’ve seen a lot more unknown trades than usual.
I know this comes with news flow and increased volume.
Still yet to see a TR1 from Lanstead so maybe they haven’t sold down as much as we thought ?
Good post Hunniford.
Obviously a good sign that the Directors want to convert their warrants into shares.
They know what’s coming so it seems they want to increase their shares accordingly.
Shame we didn’t keep the 33% rise we had at the start of the day but understandably, oriole has risen significantly in the last days/weeks.
It would be nice to see an accumulation / consolidation above 0.40 and then build steadily from there.
Senala JV ends on Feb 17th. Potentially a news catalyst
I’m incredibly keen to get a drill rig into Mbe.
Incredible results out of Mbe which further proves Orioles hypothesis to drill there.
It has the potential to be an absolute monster!
Two drill programmes over two licenses to look forward to.
Lots happening for Oriole and getting the recognition it deserves.
Be interesting to see if others come knocking on the door wanting a piece of the action.