Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
chuz - your argument (re. "hash rate arms race") is only a half-truth. mining efficiency, ie. cost of power, play a significant role in determining the metrics. Also the benefits (efficiency) of immersion cooling will impact. "it's not what you make; it's what you keep".
FP - PW clearly stated that Helios should fire up in late March, but also stated that the rig installation will be happening over many months, with completion sometime in late 2022, if I am correctly remembering.
insider -you might add that the company generates no cash, unless it sells BTC......err, ehm, or asks shareholders for more "allowance".
probability....?
the 4500 "leased" rigs were plugged in, sometime in Feb.; so they have been operational for 9-10 months. The purchase price was "around" $ 2300.00 each, in Nov. 2020., financed by celsius over 24 months. Based on the avg. BTC price since Feb., x 430PH, I suspect these machines have already paid for themselves.
good point blubay, I guess if their costs of mining at helios are as "low" as we all hope, it would make sense / (cost) to unplug them and ship them to texas. I have no idea what kind of warranty period mining rigs have.
4500 rigs. these are still locked into the 24-month hosting agreement with core scientific.
the "celsius"rigs, that now belong to argo, will stay at the core scientiific site, making hay. I doubt whether they will be moved to helios, when it powers-up next year.
PW definitely, or at least likely, confirmed the following in the blonity interview: he quickly dodged the question of the current delivery / installation status of the remaining rigs (to get to 1.7 exahash). He checked his status board and mentioned delays / delivery difficulties. This means anyone using an excel-based tracking sheet should assume it will be at least January until the full 1.7 exahash are on line at the core scientific site. We were originally told early October I think, and then mid-Q4. Also, he did NOT confirm that the current cash will be enough to complete the 200mw build-out. He said that is what the funds are for, but did not say that they will suffice. He also confirmed that the ordered 20.000 rigs will start mining in approx. April and will completion by October. NO confirmation of the size of the batches / no way to adjust your spreadsheets wrt total hashrate beginning in April and hashrate ramp-up in Q2 & q3 2022. pretty much up in the air, out of their control, apparently. Basically, still a lot of uncertainty wrt BTC production between now and next October. (he admitted that Q3 revenue was less than expected, due to the "known" s17 problems, but he did not indicate how this would be resolved; ie - timeline: when all of their "already-owned" s17s would be unplugged, sent to Texas, and get hooked-up into the immersion system at Helios.) Although PW did indeed seem relaxed, I am actually slightly more worried, now that I have watched the Blonity piece. Argo labs could be promising. I cannot argue with the poster who stated he will sell his argo holdings now, and then re-buy when this bull-run is over. Argo have & will clearly miss the boat during the current bull run. Argo may indeed be a great play, during the next downturn / BTC winter, but there are definitely MUCH better short-term prospects in the sector.
re. the S17 "solution": from what MARA has said, they have been forced to charter aircraft, to get their rigs into the US (to avoid import bottlenecks due to the huge backlog of ships at the ports of entry). I assume this issue will persist and that Argo will also have to find an alternative solution....which will add significant cost to this "solution"..
"It is way better than having a empty building but doesn't come for free. " good point. The question is: as a shareholder, would prefer that we sell HODL to finance Rigs, or another dilution...? more senior notes..?? I was too near-sighted, assuming that the NDQ IPO would be enough to complete the first 200 mw of Helios. I am not liking these "piece-meal" fundings, that do not address the needs of the company for at least a year. Also, having a significant HODL on the balance sheet might entice another company to buy us out on the cheap, before we ever benefit from Pluto...
although I am glad there is no dilution; what irritates me is, just like the NDQ IPO, is once again there is confusion and/or lack of clear & explicit communications with regards to value, how much the company will receive, etc. 50 mil $, minus fees..? 40 mil $ net..?
not sure if this metric ("active mining power") reflects hosted hashrate (core scientific), as the term "active" sticks out here. I could be stupid though....
spot etf aint happenin any time soon in the US.
re. the options - normally, it would have to be an employee who was with the company (probably early 2020, and maybe even before that. Either this person left recently and now is forced to excercise the options (normally, they have a 90 day window, or so.) Or, for some other personal reason, this person needs the money ASAP. I would suspect it is the first scenario, as who would excercise options now, voluntarily, based on what COULD happen with the SP in the months to come...? There is also the possibility that this person excercises the options (becomes an actual owner of shares, which means the shares have to be paid for with cash now) and then holds them for a year (depending on his local tax rules with regards to capital gains) instead of selling them on the market now, and sells them in a year or later to minimize tax.
what was the daily volume in relation to their "main asset" price during this period (HIVE - Ether & Argo - BTC)? good analysis thoough & the efforts are appreciated.
yes Wolf, it is quite the hamster wheel - a never-ending pay the bills, yet HODL; increase hash rate, yet HODL; funding / dilution....rinse and repeat....survival of the: 1) most-aggressive expansionist. 2) most efficient? 3) greenest? 4) most-diversified? 5) tech-saviest? no idea where all of this this ends. at the moment, we seem to be one of the poorest (HODL) & slowest (hash rate "ramp-up").
chaebol - wrt "why did peter sell the 61 btc" - I think it had something to do with the BTC collateralized loan: it gave them a % of cash to cover the loan, in case BTC dropped and the bank called them on it. I could be wrong though, but like you say, after all of the HODL speeches from PW, this is all I can come up with.
chaebol; although your post at first seemed a bit cynical, it actually is pretty much right on the money. rookie mistakes by the execs, and why not go full-monty and dilute again now, so they can at least complete the first phase / 200mw build-out and buy the rigs to kit it out....? I cannot imagine that was not a "faux pas" but some ballsy marketing gimmick to inflate the SP before another pending funding. I seriously doubt there will be any sanctions and also do not think any of the 3 execs will get booted.
don't forget that there is a huge difference (legally / disclosure) between what is officially communicated to the market in an RNS and some "take aways" from a conversation with the CFO, posted on twitter. the twitter thing is a great read and certainly restores some hope. however, all current SH should be looking to put some money on the other miners; spread their bets out, IMO.