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Both Barker and MA will look like complete idiots if this closes at £2.50 tomorrow.

£3.30 basically prices the company to fail. £2.50 would suggest that admin is nailed on (or at the least a big cash raise / sale of Topshop etc...). Turnaround working but slower than expected could send us down to £3, but £2.50 seems unlikely to me - particularly in light of the £2m Barker purchase just before close. Barker will have seen the figures and know the content of tomorrow's update. People will say, well, he's just taking a long-term view, but then why not 'take the view' after the dismal update, when the price is more £1 lower (by your estimates). Such a move would save him £500k.

Barker's purchase isn't conclusive evidence of things going well here, but I feel less nervous following it.

I paid no attention to short positions picked by robots.

Well, not making any predictions haha - I dare not.

Just saying that the price movement and the short presence wasn't in anyway, an accurate indication of how the company was doing at the time.

I remember similar before the Jan 2023 update and - fearful - almost selling out prior to it. Despite the massive short presence, the update was very reassuring and was followed by a long upward surge in the SP.

Looking forward to tomorrow.

GLA

Much clearer.

Not sure why Trakm8 couldn't lay it out in a similar fashion in the RNS.

Does sound like they can weather the loss for now, due to their cost savings plan.

Huge loss of connections isn't great, but the hope (BOD's words) is for a surge.

If the contract gets signed shortly after April, then this will be back to 13-14p. If not, then could sit around 8p for the foreseeable - unless there's an offer / placement.

For some reason I'm still drawn to this horrendous saga, so will keep an eye on developments.

Looking at QTX and SAAS - both consistently profitable (albeit some reduction over at QTX) - and it does suggest that Trakm8 is simply badly run.

Perhaps I’m looking at it through jaded glasses. Doesn’t help that the RNS is characteristically vague and ambiguous.

I do however wish everyone here the best of luck.

That’s certainly one way of looking at it and you may well be right . I genuinely hope you are.

I’m curious as to how they’re supposed to keep the lights on with such a massive loss and only £0.4m in cash.

I believe the first investment was to save an important/significant contract - it was described as 'strategic' at the time and there's no doubt Trakm8 was finished without the investment. The second injection probably sprang from a false hope / mirage of jam somewhere on a near horizon. Lord knows there have been enough promises made over the last decade really. Hope springs eternal but can also cloud judgement.

Not sure we can rely on the judgement of the previous FD either. And one thing is clear, JFW is one hell of a salesman ...everyone has been buying whatever he's been selling, despite the delivery of absolutely nothing.

I remember a bear on another BB saying years ago that trakm8 were excellent at making no money. In 20 years how often has a profit been turned? Meanwhile the BOD has been drawing fat salaries for delivering very little. The slight consolation in that respect is they've also seen the value of their holdings evaporate over the years ...the difference however is twofold:

1. They've been well paid to watch the show; and

2. Most of their holdings came for very little, if any, outlay. And remember, they sold a bunch at £1.70p a few years back.

No. This is exactly as it look: the music has stopped, the lights are on and the party is over. Only the route to the exit remains unclear, but not for long; not for long.

GLA

Agree with Pianista - both about the brainstorm and impending announcement - perhaps from both Trak and ML. I suspect there are some on the ML BOD questioning the wisdom of getting into bed with Trakm8 in the first place. I believe it was to salvage an order at the time and they foolishly bought Trakm8's nonsense (like so many of us). Interestingly, Raza has made a number of personal share purchases at way about current prices.

Anyway, they have only £0.4m of cash at hand (whether this includes revolving facilities isn't clear )- never mind what kind of covenants may be on the verge of being breached (or have now been). They also say they are having a bad time of it in the insurance market currently and a 'hoping for' (read, completely relying on) a sudden surge in demand for Trakm8 products. Even with the contract and projected revenues, they basically said there is no jam at the end of FY-2025. The first RNS that has no jam for the long, stale toast of long-suffering holders.

No, they simply must raise cash or sell. So, whilst ML are brainstorming, JFW is probably calling around the city with his cap in hand. Either option will be the next announcement, I believe. My money is on sell, as I can't see how anyone can be persuaded to back this almost fatally wounded horse. Unless, Watkins and the BOD come to rescue entirely alone - which is possible, but at what cost to PIs?!

Can’t imagine Anders would sign up to that. Also, don’t see Frasers as interested in a takeover. Definitely interesting times however and even more so come Tuesday!

How does Trakm8 soak up a £1.4m loss?

And what if the hoped for surge doesn’t turn up?

Two huge questions I’d want answered, personally.

They have to raise cash or sell the business. Perhaps I’m missing something but that to me seem obvious.

All this speculation would be moot, if the company provided clear and detailed RNS. What was provide seems rushed and ill-thought-out. It probably wasn't but that's the impression.

Lots of sells over at SAAS - Probably feeding through a little. At the very least, their continuing faith in Watkins must be denting the credibility of what was/is a pretty stellar reputation.

Agree.

This is pure take out play now. Question is simply how much.

Could Micro let it fall into admin before picking up or picking over the bones? (genuine comment - not being facetious)

Could be turning.

Just a half-positive update on Tuesday and this should fly.

*Why is it necessary to delay the signing for the best commercial outcome? What does that even look like - any ideas?*

Sounded to me like they hadn't even got the deal over the line.

This was also pretty worrying:

"the Group anticipates that its FY-2025 results will be adversely impacted by the lower levels of insurance connections, as outlined earlier. At this stage, the extent of any shortfall is unclear as this will depend on insurance capacity returning at which point the Board is hopeful there will be a surge in demand."

Hopeful ???

Plucky spirit and optimism only take one so far...

Not an ideal basis to go cap in hand to the market..?

Interestingly, when the Sainsbury's contract was delayed they sounded much more confident. To me, this sounds a whole lot more uncertain about whether they can even get the deal over the line.

£7 Close

Can't stay away can he...

That said, still can't see an offer here from Frasers.

No. Problem is Watkins and Co have run what was once a profitable company (£2m-odd, one year) with decent revenues (£30m) completely into the ground. They simply can't be brought along for a further ride. So, two questions then become pertinent:

1. what will Micro be prepared to put up to take control of the company and show Watkins and Co the door?

2. what will Watkins and co accept?

Is there a 3rd take private option?

The obstacle is surely Watkins and Cronies - a buy out would mean the end of the gravy train. Broadly speaking they have eaten well over the years. I suspect they will try for a placement first. MO of Aim companies.

Who is going to dip their hand in for a placement? Microlise? If they do then with the loan note, they will be forced surely to take the entire company?

I think this is the end of the story here, one way or another - i.e., in terms of Trakm8 existing in its current form.

Microlise must be as disappointed as those of us who have lost a lot here.