Member Info for kn0wles

The market has been open 10mins, give it chance

Agreed

It will be interesting to see if any shorts reduced today, Astaris actually reduced their position yesterday, I bet they are wishing they closed it completely.

Astaris Capital Management LLP 1.26% -0.05% 29 Mar 2023

What was in 2012?

Someone will be sweating today from Astaris Capital, they upped the short position on the 27th March when the share price was 49p, ouch.

Astaris Capital Management LLP 1.31% 0.04% 27 Mar 2023

"The first contract under the framework, for the Ijmuiden Ver Alpha project, has been awarded with immediate effect. The second, Nederwiek 1, is expected to be awarded later in the year. "

"Every scheme in the agreement will be executed under a standalone contract, valued at over £1.75billion, split between Petrofac's and Hitachi Energy's scopes."

With 2 contracts due this year that should be around £1.75b to PFC this year then the remaining 4 projects split over 2024-2026 which equates to a further 3.5b over that period to PCF.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-11919445/Petrofac-Hitachi-Energy-awarded-huge-offshore-wind-agreement.html

I doubt it, this is a shell company with zero business, they sold whatever their "two special purpose companies" to MAST last year.

Does anybody else deal through AJ Bell, I have heard nothing from them but the company name has only just recently changed to "ARCTURIS DATA LTD ORD GBP0.10" in my account, thanks for the updates everyone it is much appreciated.

It would be financial suicide for the shorter's not to close in the current situation, this could double again very quickly from this price to be on par with the year high.

The revised broker ratings will be interesting, below was Barclays in January, PFC have just announced their biggest ever contract win and we were double the share price now only 12 months ago.

18-Jan-23 Barclays Equal-weight 200.00 200.00 Reiteration

There will certainly be some squeaky bums this morning from the short positions that's for sure lol

Shorts need to buy back 4.66% of the company back which going by todays news I'm sure they are in the process of doing so, that equates too just over 24m shares or around £19.4m at the current share price so we should see a small short squeeze coming as they scramble to close out.

That's correct Jimbo, share holders have been diluted to oblivion and people will read into things as it suits them, the only thing I could see in that RNS was likely another raise coming before the end of May.

" this would be expected to reduce the Company's previously announced cash runway to the end of May 2023"

"the Company continues to work towards the publication of its unaudited interim financial statements for the 6-month period to 31 August 2022, which it intends to issue at the same time"

At least we will also get last year's interims at the same time and hopefully a current trading update.

That's " is not getting hammered"

Not sure if it works like that to be honest Toplocks, the reduction in the revolving credit facility by our banking partners would generally be seen as a negative as it shows they do not have as much confidence in our ability to repay it, but they have set it at 32m so a slight positive in the fact they are still willing to lend to us.
By the time these results are out we will be due two sets of results, I'm not to worried about the 2021 accounts, more important is the progress made in 2022 and the first quarter of 2023 to get a better indication of growth since then.
Oh well the wait goes on, at least the share price is getting hammered because if the delay, every cloud and all that.

Its hard to factor what both wells will be producing combined as there has been no comms/estimates regarding expected overall output so all we can assume is from the below statements, we will will go for the lower end of both to be on the conservative side:

" Higher gas production rates, expected to be initially in the 30-40 mmscf/d range from H2 after a period of displacing liquids in the Saturn Banks Pipeline, driving higher cash flow"

"Gross gas rates are in the 15-20 mmscf/d range, fluctuating due to onshore liquids letdown cycles, alongside associated condensate and water production"

So lets assume the lower estimate of 45mmscf/d for the argument of potential at a rough guestimate price of £1.25 per therm (could be higher or lower so a little guess work):

45mmscf/d=462,710 Therms
462,710=£578,387.5 per day
£578,387.5x7=£4,048,712.5 per week
£4,048,712.5x52=£210,533,050 per year
£210,533,050÷2 (Cal Energy take 50%)=£105,266,525 per year to IOG

So just over £105m per year from Blyth only to IOG is the potential, its only a rough guess on potential as we don't know future gas prices although predictions are that it will rise slightly higher and we do not know down times. Before the year is out I'd assume we will have another well drilled, my best guess reading through the updates would be Nailsworth which is our second biggest license after Goddard, Nailsworth makes the best logistical sense as its near the Southwark hub/Saturn banks pipeline, Elland is slightly closer although Nailsworth looks further ahead in regards to development but could be either of them two, the next update should provide some forward planning once Blyth H2 has been drilled.

Lets work out what IOG would earn from a successful drill from H2, assuming we are bang in the middle at 35mmscf/d at say £1.25 per Therm (rough average price guestimate?):

35mmscf/d=359,886 per Therm
359,886x£1.25=£449,861.25 per day
£449,861.25x7=£3,149,028.75 per week
£3,149,028.75x52=£163,749,495 per year
£163,749,495÷2 (cal energy share 50%)=£81,874,747.5 per year to IOG

Not bad for a £24m market cap company and that is only from Blyth. Phase 1 is nearing completion, Southwark is most likely a wright off and Elgood is now held for "SBPS has been dewatered" which would then lead into Phase 2.

Only one more sleep to go ; )