Member Info for KiJaHu

Not to mention the enormous spread on this share, good luck getting in and out when its regularly between 10-20%

God that's a bad RNS, back down into the 1s this, had a quick look at T212 and it's down nearly 50% already

The two are completely different, card factory has significantly higher margin in respect to turnover, you keep quoting the 1bn turnover, that's utterly moot if you're not turning a penny of that into profit, in previous years dividends and the share price were artificially raised due to the sale of their freehold portfolio. I have a significant investment here now and your ramping is really unhelpful.

The 20% basket increase is as you said on a handful of shops, a small proportion of the overall portfolio, so still an unknown, Morrisons aren't going to prop Mccolls up, they are keen to improve revenue streams via wholesale, they don't want the cost overheads that's why they're tempting independents too over to the daily format. Mccolls needs to improve their razor thin margins and the timing frankly couldn't be worse with high interest/inflation. This is a massively risky bet, the recent price action does not feel leaky to me at all, it's low float, low mkt cap price action stuff, the share price doubling/halving means zilch.

24k sell

Ha ok, so as long as you timed it correctly (i.e luck/gambling) you're green. Thanks for the valuable insight champ

Where's that 500% figure come from? It was mid 20s in April, it had a high of 70p in July, that's 50% down last time I checked

Chin up mate, we'll find out the result soon enough, good or bad, the wait is nearly over. I'm in deeper that I feel comfortable but that was the risk of averaging, I will never gamble/place such a significant part of my portfolio on any one share ever again.

He's not wrong though, boards allow for a variety of diff opinions and this share has underperformed for well over 12 months, the only saving grace being it's held steady in the 30p price range for ages, or else I'd have sold out at a big loss. What's the news?

That retrace is massive though, you could sell at 5.8p at one point yesterday. If we don't believe the price action of the last week or so isn't a pump and dump but insider info/leak then this shouldn't be going this far down, I managed to average into the high 4s and was in profit yesterday, I'm disappointed because this looked really promising, it feels like someone has just made an absolute fortune seeing this company in trouble and artificially pumping by injecting a steady stream of money into it and catching some FOMO'ers, which is fair enough. False flag mind.

What a weird post, how can an amount more than a 100 quid be justified?? Surely it depends on a load of different factors like how much that makes up of your entire portfolio or when you bought in? Some utter tripe posted on this board now, it's binary, as in we as private investors don't know where this will go, if it goes out of business you lose, if it refinances this will multi-bag, how much is a 50/50 bet worth? Christ

Just feels like PI's taking a punt at a carcass personally, pump the night before and then a strong sell off AM, surprised the big spread and danger of mccoll's releasing flash news isn't a big turn off but w/e

Did you listen to that segment? It's literally just a remark on there being a gap between an engulfing candlestick at the 2.8-3.5p range we've been trading at recently and 5p. He said the long-term is a binary bet, which I fully agree with.

Came across this interesting bit of info from Fitch ratings earlier on Morrison's:

"Growth of Wholesale: We expect wholesale revenue to grow on average slightly above 5% per year in FY23-FY26. This will come mainly from McColls' store conversions to Morrisons Daily, with existing conversions having delivered positive lfl sales and profit impact from a change in product mix. Morrisons and McColls agreed to accelerate the announced store conversion programme and McColls has raised equity to fund capex. Wholesale provides capital-light access to growth of the convenience segment, albeit at a lower margin than that generated by retail stores. Material investment into the wholesale channel may derail the deleveraging path and could be negative for the rating."

They're taking it as a potential negative to it's rating system. Not really too sure what "derailing the deleveraging path means" but obviously thry aren't keen on wholesale.

No offense, but that's your opinion. If financing is sorted then they will release an RNS to that effect, it's still in talks, the business has an obligation regardless of a crucial decision hovering above to carry on business as usual, we can both wake up Monday morning to this going into admin, let's keep discussion in here as factual as possible as it's unhelpful else. I'm baffled by the price action as there doesn't seem to be anything to support it, share prices rise when there's strong buying/consistent buying pressure and that's clearly not the case here. I agree it's a binary decision here as it was on the 28th of Feb, this will either return to a 10-15p trading range on the possibility of re-financing and it will go up further if Morrison daily conversions increase as time goes on.

Yeah the price action and recent trades didn't add up to me, that's a massive drop so quick, got to expect it with the mkt cap being that low and no news

I don't have L2 access, from the recent trades I'm seeing numerous much smaller buys being completely cancelled out by massive sells? No idea how this is still 50% up for the week on a second trading day but seems positive even with the latest RNS

No major announcements 'til results in May? Morrison owners not concerned about asset stripping either given the 500m sell off announced.

Noticed there's still a fair number of job openings, if you search on indeed and look at jobs there's over 600 in the UK, including a few head office positions dealing with conversions. The lack of news is frustrating though, trading is giving no clues so you can't follow the money either.

That's got absolutely nowt to do with Amazon, that is literally Morrison's MO, and if you went through any of the RNS's outlining their relationship you'd see that mentioned. Yes the job ad is a positive, loads of shop workers still needed too, there was another Morrison's daily conversion in Plymouth opening in the last 24 hours. Roll on next week.

Another dead dull day, low volume, not sensing any accumulation so there's no indication there which way this is heading, was going through the RNS's earlier and spotted this gem exactly 12 months ago (march '21)
"New banking arrangements

McColl's is pleased to announce the support of its banking syndicate in order to execute its strategy. The existing banking arrangements have been amended to offer improved headroom against covenants, a realigned amortisation schedule and an extended maturity date to February 2024. The updated facility consists of a £100m revolving credit facility and an amortising £67.5m term loan." So much for support, within the space of 8 months til November last year and it disappeared. Wonder what happened behind the scenes.

https://www.dorsetecho.co.uk/news/20028875.mccolls-announces-new-morrisons-daily-shop-littlemoor-weymouth/

Another conversion going ahead, it seems to be completely ignorant of mccoll's current financial predicament.

Has anyone else come across a situation like this before where a business is in real deep waters but pressing on with expansion???

It never said it did, every article I've read that talks about the jump to 450 conversions says it will get an increase in "support" from Morrisons. No one is expecting shareholders to fund anymore conversions going forwards. This is at the 11th hour stage, either Morrison's does the right thing and pays for the business and shareholders get some of that money back from the share raise last year or they watch it fold and try to sort through the scraps. With the HL appointment, this goPuff stuff, the new owners looking to uplift a stagnating brand I think it's a possibility, the share price reflects the uncertainty of whether or not shareholders will be involved in any potential move or not.