Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
BB, maybe, I suppose you can't rule out that the 600m deal that Morrisons has with Mccolls is very real and losing that would affect their wholesale ambitions. The share price action says it all to me though, especially with the recent TR1s, it's a bargepole job and Morrisons could quite easily just let it fold and pick up the daily makeover ones, FOC, all the noise about the issa bros, Amazon etc is just ****e. Follow the money, and that's not here anymore, it's long gone.
Ursus capital has pulled the plug too now after only getting in a few days ago, bid under a penny, poor RNS on Monday in regards to weak trading and a supplier who is struggling to supply their own sites let alone act as wholesaler for 1300 additional stores, are we looking at the end for Mccoll's as a publicly traded business?
Big shout out to the management who have steered this business at highspeed into a brick wall and made money out of it, ****-blocking your supply chain, robbing private investors and selling your assets for pennies to artificially raise your share price over the years without reducing debt are particular highlights.
I'm still invested in the same way the violinist was on the titanic, who's joining me in watching this turd up-end and finally, undramatically, sink?
You sell any banburyboy? I know you were still fairly upbeat after the RNS on Monday, I'm deep in the red but I think at this point it's better to stick in it hoping for a last min miracle then selling out at a wipeout loss
The 1bn t/o, 3m mkt cap statement has to stop, its net income is negative, that is completely diff to EBITDA, so have a think about that, if it has 97m of debt it can't service at the minute, in an environment where costs are increasing and the central bank WILL raise interest rates again this year, do you think lenders will be keen on giving mccolls the money? The answer is how convincing is there store conversion program in increasing margin and bringing operational costs down (getting rid of unprofitable sites) and try answer is they SEEM to be doing well on both of those fronts.
This doesn't scream suitor/buyer to me, too small fry, that's a massive amount of debt to service, it's more a spec rath dhu bid imo(what happened to those guys anyway?) Who paid I'm sure more than double what ursus have paid today, so it's not a massive gamble really, not at these levels.
Ok, but let's make this perfectly clear: the company haven't told anyone, anything absolute or concrete, re-read the RNS, there's only a few words which talks about private investors:
'it is increasingly likely to result in little or no value being attributed to the Group's ordinary shares'
'It is increasingly likely': the odds aren't good but not set in stone
'little or no value being attributed to the group's ordinary shares': this is double-barrelled, little or no, what is little? Less than the current share price or less than the share raise when 30 million was raised? Or no which is zilch.
So to summarize, they don't have a deal done, they don't know if that deal is likely to include the current shareholders, and if it does, what amount of it will be attributed to shareholders amongst the main lenders and commercial partners(i.e Morrisons). So we don't know. You don't know. This is a shot in the dark exactly like it was at near 6p last week.
Tldr, I love scratch cards
If that's true, why wasn't everyone running for the door? Last time I checked this has a near 50% institutional ownership, where are the RNS's? Maybe it's too late for that and they've written them down/off, if the share trade data is even halfway accurate there was more buying than selling today, and some big trades that we haven't seen in months happen. It's still an unknown, it's certainly less likely than ever for this to go to double figures but it's not impossible.
Me too, just purely on the basis that what I own is now worth FA, little to no value is an interesting wording because it's currently worth little to no value now, can't get much worse...or can it? really poor showing given the 30p placing last year. Be interesting if anyone who bought then would pursue legally
The two are completely different, card factory has significantly higher margin in respect to turnover, you keep quoting the 1bn turnover, that's utterly moot if you're not turning a penny of that into profit, in previous years dividends and the share price were artificially raised due to the sale of their freehold portfolio. I have a significant investment here now and your ramping is really unhelpful.
The 20% basket increase is as you said on a handful of shops, a small proportion of the overall portfolio, so still an unknown, Morrisons aren't going to prop Mccolls up, they are keen to improve revenue streams via wholesale, they don't want the cost overheads that's why they're tempting independents too over to the daily format. Mccolls needs to improve their razor thin margins and the timing frankly couldn't be worse with high interest/inflation. This is a massively risky bet, the recent price action does not feel leaky to me at all, it's low float, low mkt cap price action stuff, the share price doubling/halving means zilch.