Member Info for KevRow

This is the result of the extremely widely reported share buyback programme and subsequent share cancellation.

"Britain's Vodafone and Virgin Media O2 have reached a new network sharing agreement in the UK including a plan to shift spectrum which could help Vodafone win regulatory approval for its tie-up with mobile operator Three."

Sounds like good progress is being made on the merger if they are agreed to deals like this.

The Company has today cancelled 611,120,811 of its ordinary shares of US$0.20 20/21 ("Shares") previously held in Treasury.

Following the cancellation of these Shares the Company holds 1,446,474,039 of its shares in Treasury.

Apologies, just noticed that further down the page. Thanks.

"Vesting of performance and retention shares as part of the Global Long Term Incentive (GLTI) and Global Long Term Retention (GLTR) plans for Senior Leadership Team members."

I'd say it's neither nonsensical or misleading.

Any recommendation should be treated with caution, but surely if an analyst is going to make a share price prediction/recommendation, they will include their reasoning to add weight to it. The German cable-TV unbundling etc. are unfolding events that could have a material impact on the share price one way or the other. They are not in the rear view mirror and the true extent won't be known until later in the year, so are legitimate causes of ongoing concern/speculation.

"I think it makes sense to buy back notes expiring in 2037 and 2043, if one thinks interest rates will go down. I do not understand why Vodafone is also buying notes expiring in 2025. Anyway, this decision should impact positively on the stock price"

Arguably, what you have written is more questionable. By your own admission, you don't understand why Vodafone is buying up notes expiring in 2025 but still state that it should impact positivity on the share price rather than this already being factored into the price as it is.

"probably the price movement yesterday was a consequence of Beremberg’s nasty (and in my opinion rather nonsensical) comments…"

They were negative but I wouldn't say nonsensical?

The two main points seemed to be that growth will take a hit due to German cable-TV unbundling and consumer price index-linked pricing meaning they won't be able to put up their prices by as much. Both of which seem reasonable and the main discussion would be to what extent they will hit growth, or if they can find growth elsewhere/cut enough costs to mitigate.

Vodafone seem to have a similar view:

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/vodafone-lose-4-million-customers-germany-regulatory-change-to-contracts-b1157575.html

"Vodafone today said it was set to lose more than 4 million customers in Germany as the telecoms giant prepared for a 400 million euro (£340 million) knock from regulatory change in its biggest market."

Https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1050436/vodafone-a-business-that-would-never-exist-now-suggests-broker-1050436.html

"We worry about consensus expectations for the UK: We expect the growth of Vodafone’s Q1 revenues on 25 July to slow down, due to: 1) German cable-TV unbundling; and 2) consumer price index (CPI)-linked pricing in many markets resulting in lower price increases in April 2024 than April 2023.

First-quarter organic service revenue growth is forecast at 4.0% (consensus: +4.0%; Q4: +7.1%), including European service revenue growth of -0.5% (consensus: +0.8%; Q4: +2.4%)."

Beating these expectations will be what drives the price higher rather than buy backs, selling off assets to pay back the debt secured against those assets etc.

Https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/vodafone-raises-stake-sale-indias-indus-towers-up-2-bln-term-sheet-shows-2024-06-19/

"Vodafone said it sold 484.7 million Indus shares at 310-341 rupees per share, raising 153 billion rupees, or 1.7 billion euros, in gross proceeds that it will use to repay debt.

The group said it had bank borrowings of 1.8 billion euros against its Indian assets, which also include a stake in Vodafone Idea (VODA.NS)"

It sounds like this asset sale is being used to pay off the debt secured against the asset. Most likely the sensible thing to do but most likely explains why it is having very little impact on the share price.

"Market Cap is the total shares in issue times the share price. It does not include treasury shares."

The Market Cap considers all of a company's outstanding shares.

Free Float Market Cap (Free Float = Total Shares - Treasury Shares - Shares held by Strategic Entities) considers only shares that are considered to be freely available for trading in the market

News coverage seems pretty positive which is a bonus!

"IS THERE ANY GOOD NEWS FOR VOD? "

My concern is that the results will be a mixed bag and the market will seize on the negative and ignore the positive. Not long to find out either way!

UK approves Vodafone-Three merger with conditions

Now updated to:

UK grants security clearance to Vodafone-Three merger with conditions

Https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/uk-approves-vodafone-three-merger-with-conditions-2024-05-09/

From the Vodafone Group Public Limited Company (VOD) Q3 2024 Trading Update:

"As part of being a simpler business, we have already completed over a third of our multiyear 11,000 role reductions."

All eyes will be on the May results. I'd say the upsides/downsides of increasing/losing customers, costs rising/falling, margin rising/falling etc. will drive the share price more than future dividends etc. that are already known about.

My concern for the upcoming May results is that Vodafone themselves seems to be expecting some level of disruption in Germany in at least the short term and good May results in the UK might work against them in the longer run if it jeopardises the proposed merger.

CMA full text decision:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/662ba2bffddcc9e7ab2252a7/1._Full_text_decision.pdf

The director buys are definitely a good thing but it doesn't sound like they expect a quick return on their investment:

https://www.digitaltveurope.com/2024/02/05/vodafone-sees-return-to-negative-growth-in-germany-from-mdu-tv-rule-change/#close-modal

"Mucic said that the impact, “regardless of where we end up in the range, will still be quite sizable”, with the expectation that growth in Q4 in Germany will be “roughly flat” and that there will be “a return to negative growth” in the first half of fiscal 2025. However, he said he expected this to mitigated by growth in business revenue and the impact in the second half of the year of a roaming agreement with service provider 1+1.

He said he expected a return to “very decent growth” in fiscal 2026."

It's possible things have changed since the above article, so perhaps 2025 is looking better than expected.

"An investment in Vodafone at the current price would produce an income of about 5.7%, payable in less than 4 months time"

Sadly, if past performance is anything to go by, the share price will just drop by the amount the divi pays out and you are no better off. Fingers crossed the results in May will signal a corner having been turned.