RE: someone call the police.18 Dec 2019 11:36
Within a matter of days, the South American country completed its transformation from mining sector pariah to host to world class producing assets in the world’s two most sought after metals, testament to the effectiveness and efficacy of the new fiscal regime for mining, which Lundin played a significant role in shaping.
The changes implemented in recent years have seen explorers and majors flood into Ecuador chasing the promise of large deposits on virgin exploration territory. With Lundin and Ecuacorriente having shown that foreign companies can work with the taxation regime to develop projects, will Ecuador’s future projects be cheaper to develop due to a lower cost of capital related to improved perceived country risk?
Michael Scherb, founder and CEO of London’s Appian Capital Advisory told Mining Journal, adding that, although there is still a risk premium to projects in-country, we have moved the country to our watchlist [and] off our do-not-invest list. We will shortly be sending a team to review opportunities in-country, he said.
For Roger Bell, mining analyst at Hannam & Partners, who covers Ecuador explorer SolGold, the success of FDN should produce benefits for other companies subsequently looking to advance and finance projects in Ecuador. Successful funding and completion of a US$700m project marks a significant milestone for Ecuador, demonstrating the attractiveness and bank-ability of this emerging jurisdiction. We see a positive read-across to the development of Alpala and further projects within SOLG’s extensive portfolio, which would also establish Ecuador as a major new destination for mining investment, he said in a November research note.
Adding to this, Bell told Mining Journal, whenever the central government has seen queries about the tenue of mining it has been on the side of the industry as it sees mining as critical for the development of Ecuador
Another London-based finance market participant requires more convincing. In the words of Aristotle, one swallow does not a summer make. I don’t think this really changes anything. I personally think we need to see some period of steady production out of FDN and perhaps one or two more successful mine commissionings before you see the cost of capital and country risk premium for Ecuador change, he said.
Ecuador’s country risk was one of the main talking points for companies with projects in the region at the recent 121 Mining Investment conference in London. This is a topical question at 121, Scott Hicks VP corporate development at Lumina Gold told Mining Journal
While the sector celebrates (and breathes a sigh of relief) over the FDN and Mirador developments, recent political events in Ecuador where protests against removing fuel subsidies escalated to the extent that the government had to temporarily abandon the capital Quito for Guayaquil, means investors remain cautious.