Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
So who saw this one?
Now, who am I to speculate, especially after being labelled a trader yesterday, but has anyone else seen this?
The results look like being potentially over a 16km strike and grades are over 0.6% and up to 2.4% in terms of copper, but this is the bit that took my fancy.
The proposed mining licence they are on about there is basically smack bang in the middle between the refinery at Kabwe and project Lechwe. So could this one be the 4th concentrator? Who knows, but being smack bang in the middle, means that the concentrate can go to either location and being honest, with us operating 2 refineries in the area, who else would they consider going to, especially if we are able to efficiently extract the copper to a much higher degree than others.
Now I might be wrong, but it looks like the Zambian JV partner is pressing ahead with a mining licence which means that the JV will be mining in the next couple of years and who better than us to process a mining junior's ROM?
I am not reading into anything, I am making what is basically an educated prediction on events that are happening in real time with countries as the players. Whether you agree or not, that again doesn't matter to me, but you state that it won't happen and when I say that did you predict Russia invading Ukraine, you say nope. Well, I did. I also predicted that Russia would be selling it's resources to China at a steep discount and again I have been proved right. I didn't predict India helping out with it too, but that is by the by, the unscrupulous countries and companies will use these countries as a means of getting Russia's resources to market and yes, I am currently making a prediction that within 6 months, especially if the countries that propose to be helping Ukraine out, continue dilly dallying to appease Russia and ensure that they are supplied with Russian gas and oil on a continued basis, will ensure that Ukraine cedes land that Russia holds and then hopefully NATO will welcome Ukraine into it's fold with open arms. The EU membership will only happen if the EU doesn't go into recession due to a prolonged war.
If I am wrong on this prediction, I will say I was wrong, but it is the most plausible way for all countries, with the exception of Ukraine, to save themselves.
Also I will quote you here.
I don't know how JLP will power it's near term growth. Whatever the route the devil will be in the detail. Each of the three options you present can work well or they can be a diasater depending on the terms. I'm happy to place my confidence in the board as they've done alright so far.
And.
I'm not trying to counter your statement. However, the fact the board doesn't communicate as much as some want doesn't mean that by extension to what I said I believe it will be an unmitigated disaster.
So the fact that the board doesn't communicate very well in most Long Term Holders eyes and you stating that the devil is in the detail and how is communicated to the market and us shareholders, should basically show you that even if the board do a good job and I, for one, would be glad of it this time around, that it won't matter too much, as they said no more dilution and then cleared an old share warrant issue with the dilution. Yes, it wasn't a new share issue, but it was still dilution in a period of time when they had said that there would be no more. They should have communicated that there would be one further potential dilution, but that there wouldn't be anymore after that was cleared.
I am long and strong here and trying to add where I can and the board is doing a better job, but they need to clear the legacy issues completely and that DOES include clearer and more concise details in things moving forward.
Please explain why then, despite Germany's insistence that they will give military hardware and offensive weaponry to Ukraine they haven't done it or if they have they have done it at levels surpassed even by Poland. Yes they have given soft or defensive stuff such as medical items in abundance, but where is the offensive stuff to counter the Russian military might. They have had months to give it to the Ukrainians and still hardly anything, if at all, has gone over. I watched and helped Ukrainians pull apart old mig 29's for parts in Romania, so even they are helping and they ARE the poorest country in the EU.
The reason is Germany doesn't want to **** Russia off and therefore is saying one thing and doing something else. Will it come out that the EU want Ukraine to cede land? Yep, it already has from Macron. He told the Ukrainianpresident to cede land and not to make Putin look bad. Putin invaded his country, of course he wants Putin to fail and look bad, would France accept giving up a bit of it'sland to appease a tyrant who'd invaded France to stop a war? Would it heck.
However eill that idea spread, especially if the EU goes into recession, of course it will!
It will be developed in the back channels and will never be addressed fully, but if you want proof that the EU isn't particularly bothered about Ukraine and wants a return to the status quo, you only have to look at the G7 meeting yesterday as those are the people supposedly on Ukraine's side and they couldn't come up with something as a cohesive unit, so what hope does the EU and it's completely differing views take?
I might be wrong on the ceding of land in the short term, but it will happen at some stage and then the Ukraine will be ushered into the EU and most importantly and hopefully, NATO.
I also see that you say that you, like Dorfan have faith in the board, where in my opinion did I say I didn't? I voiced an opinion about how we expand and neither of you were able to offer a full differing opinion to counter my statement. You say that it depends how the board words it, well, that is probably THE most negative thing you could say, as those of us who have been around for a while knows that the board doesn't do communication very well, so by extention your statement states that which ever option they choose will be an unmitigated disaster.
You are confident that the EU, or France and Germany, if threatened with recession won't try to tell Ukraine that if they don't cede land and yhat they drag out the war and cause recession in the EU, they won't get into the EU ever.
Whilst you ponder that, I have to ask you one question. Were you equally as confident that Russia wouldn't invade Ukraine in the first place too? Because if you were look how that turned out.
Also we only ever used 4% in terms of our gas reliance from Russia. That has been made up by buying extra Qatari/Iranian gas and transporting that here, but what happens if even one of those ships is delayed/holed or worse falls victim to piracy, which is why forces/allies in the military world might or might not guard those ship.
Energy prices won't lower, at the moment, due in part to the sanctions and reliance on Russia's gas and oil and governments trying to locate other supplies to appease the sensibilities of their denizens, those countries like India and China who don't really care about looking too bad in the international standing are reaping the benefits of this and their economies will grow this year, especially the India economy
Also once again, you like Dorfan, haven't addressed the elephant in the room and that elephant is how to expand in an environment that is rough, in the short-term, like we currently have?
If you re-read my first message in it's entirety, you will see that I believe that Jubilee will change the world, but how we do that doesn't mean as much as how quickly we do it, because the how we do our business IS known, the uncertainty is whether or not we give up first mover/world lead and go off free cash flow or one of the other options.
Basscadet,
Yes, you are right, the EU can't make Ukraine cede land, but you missed my point, so i shall explain it better or at least in a way easier to understand.
The EU knows that Ukraine want to join the EU, the EU wants the war to end sooner, rather than later, so they 'might' say to Ukraine, cede the land that Russia already has, end the war and we'll expedite your entry to the EU. If, however, you don't cede the land, we can't allow you to join the EU, as it runs the risk of dragging the EU into a war or words to that effect.
Now Ukraine has a choice, cede the land and give Russia what it wants and what it currentky holds and Ukraine will eventually get what it wants in terms of both NATO and EU membership or drag out a war, by not giving up it's own land, support from the EU will dwindle, due on part to recession and lack of interest and they won't get into the EU or NATO for tears, if at all.
Now, do you see my point?
Continues from previous message.
Land and if they are prepared to sacrifice another country, on the altar as a sacrifical lamb, whom wants to join the EU, just to protect the EU, what would they do to others not involved. The EU will give Ukraine an ultimatum in the short/mid term, cede the land to Russia, stop the war, join the EU and potentially NATO and we'll save you if the big bad bear comes for you again. Thus offer will be made in desperation by Germany and France as both countries need to avoid recession and look positive in the eyes of the world, to help the embattled EU from the hole it finds itself in, with it's reliance on Russia. Which in itself feeds the snake, as all Putin has to do is say, we will cut off your oil and gas and Germany and France will tuck tail and play nice to save themselves.
Also you mention the long term, but you haven't mention HOW we will fund our long term projects to fruition right now, which means that you either have blinkers on OR you just want to potentially Emu it until something happens and then argue whatever happens is the best case that Jubilee could achieve right now, but it is fine as we'll expand in an environment that might not be the right environment for what we want to achieve.
I am here long and strong, BUT I express all opinions and for you to say that I am a trader, despite me posting all evidence to the contrary on MULTIPLE occasions states that you don't want anyone to post the negative, only the positive.
Some questions for you: I have already took the liberty of answering them for you, but here goes.
Is it true metal prices ARE being bashed right now? Yes it is.
Is it true that interest rates ARE rising right now? Yes it is.
If we, as a company, want to expand in a time of rising costs for EVERYTHING, do we need to do one of those 3 things I mentioned. Unfortunately YES!
You might not like abit of upsetting or unnerving news, but guess what, you have to take the rough with the smooth and right now, it IS rough out there. The good news for us, is the expansion parts (Inyoni and Roan ) that we have committed to ARE built and commissioned or commissioning. The expansion that we have decided to come isn't committed to just yet (Northern Xambia copper strategy), but will happen. However, as I posted, how will it happen? Fast with loans/finance and/or dilution or slow based of free cash flow which IS being squeezed right now. This squeeze is happening whether you like it or not and definitely whether it is posted on here or not.
People on here keep going, well we are holding up well, we are looking at massive returns in the 6 months results and we are going to be looking good forthis 6 months, but we also MUST see the headwinds that ARE coming our way.
I predicted a downturn in the PGM market as India and China, which ARE 2 of the biggest markets for PGM's will be buying at a steep discount direct from Russia and either building up their stocks or selling to the market and further reducing the price they buy at and gaining money/free cash in a time when most economies aren't flush with free cash in this post covid environment. Economies now are in an attritional war of survival and most countries don't have the funds/good grace in the international community to withstand a long and attritionl economic war.
In essence, with the revenues that Russia makes from oil and gas alone to those 2 forementioned countries and Europe, the Ukraine war will run on for years, further extending a recession that will in part ruin Western economies. Russia makes a billion dollars a day selling the oil and gas that Europe needs and because Europe won't stop that, due to their own risk of recession, it takes me back to, what people and countries will do to ensure that they survive, even at the expense of others. An example of this, is Europe destroying Ukraine and suggesting giving up land to bring about an end to the war, so that business can resume as it was, when nothing is as it was, because now EVERYTHING has changed. The question you should ask yourself with this last point is, would the EU cede land to Russia to stop a war? They might do that, but they definitely would if it is someone else's, no EU members
So copper is around 18 month lows right now at about 8,000 dollars a ton. Tin has dropped 21% in a week or so and metal prices across the board, gold aside are getting hammered, but no one here is talking about it at all. Why is that?
I know why! It doesn't fit into some people's view of where the company will be in the short and medium term and by that I generally mean traders, the ones that buy pre-news on the hope of a rise into an RNS for the results, this is also why I like the 6 month release of results, there is less volatility because people aren't trading the peaks and troughs, which might also be why we have held up reasonably well when compared to other junior miners. I still think that this company is a brilliant one and one that potentially could change the world, but to do it, we need either need 1 of the following:
1. Investment from majors which all the stocks/tails/waste we will ever need and the funds to enable us to build concentrators/central hubs or funds linked to ESG/Metals.
2. We slow the rate of growth, as rather than diluting or getting a loan at a higher rate, we use free cash flow to expand. This means that potentially we lose our advantage of being first mover in Zambia/Cyprus.
Or 3. Dilute to raise funds to grow the company.
1 and 3 are basically the same. 1 might come with less shares issued and a loan element, but in all likelihood, in this present climate of metal price dropping, it could happen.
2, is the one, I personally like the least, but battening the hatches and doing what we do well with what we have right now and building up free cash flow to slowly grow the business, is the one that most people on this board would like to see, as there'd be no more dilution and whilst growth would be occurring, it would be greatly slowed at the moment.
All options are not ideal, but we have proved with the Jubilee way, that we can make money out of nothing but waste and we are literally in the lowest percentile quarter for the metals we produce across the board, so we should be alright moving forward, but there is going to be ALOT of assets/companies that become depressed and throw the dilution cannon around in the near and short term and I think that the market is literally pricing that in right now, which again means those with free cash or access to loans/funds, etc will be alright, but we may just be about to lose a lot of juniors who are just about to get mining or are exploring and don't have that access yet.
Gotreal,
That IS point. If any company IS paying a dividend they are either at the point where they really are generating more cash than they know what to do with and have no plans to takeover or expand or they have reached steady state and aren't growing and therefore have more money than they know what to do with.
Either way, growing stops as an equilibrium has been reached and the free cash that could go to expand the business is returned to investors slowing or stopping growth entirely.
TG5, you are right with chrome levels with regard to a traditional smelter. What companies with smelters were traditionally doing is blending the Meransky and UG2 into one effort and therefore artificially lowering the chrome levels from the UG2. Conroast got around this problem as it was able to burn hot enough that effectively reduce the chromium to negligible levels, meaning it can process solely UG2 without the need for blending in the Merensky and with the Merensky becoming depleted across the full length of the BIC, Conroast with it's smaller and more efficient smelters, rather than the traditional 6 in line smelters that ARE used, made perfect sense. The problem was that Conroast was designed for small scale activities and would have needed massive expenditure to scale it up to the production levels we currently are at. As such the companies with smelters were able to keep blend the Merensky and UG2 layers and able to keep producing PGM's without losing what they had in terms of production levels and therefore no change and extra expenditure required.
What in effect has happened is we are using the Conroast formula to effectively remove ALL the chrome, meaning that UG2 ROM and Tails becomes more like a traditional Merensky effort, but without the rest of the minerals that make up the Merensky reef. Therefore any company can use our concentrate to in effect blend down their own UG2 ROM, meaning Conroast still isn't needed in smelting, but is used in the pre-smelting phase by us. Potentially if Tharisa get our levels of recovery, it means whomever or which ever companies smelts ours and Tharisa's concentrate are in effect able to smelt more UG2 than they would have even able to process originally, which is good for all concerned.
Tharisa's project Vulcan is targeting ultra-fine chrome the same as us, so that is by the by. They have in essence built a bigger plant to do the same thing as our Inyoni plant and they have spent far more money on it than we spent on the full Inyoni refurbishment and with it being over budget and delayed by at least a year, probably closer to 18 months, they will have lost ALOT of revenue and spent extra on transport and chrome penalty costs. They aim to retrieve 80+% of the chrome up from 62% and in doing so they hope to produce an extra 200,000 tonnes a year of chrome product.
So in essence, the difference between ours and Tharisa is scale and throughput, but it seems likely that with ROM and not tailings, we will get a far better retrieval rate and we are pushing 1.2 million tonnes without having a mine and associated costs in terms of manpower, etc.
Personally I think that the potential for Tharisa, Sylvania and us to merge into one big company is huge, even if 2 of the 3 merge, the consolidation would be immense. Personally I can see us and Tharisa as Billion pound companies. Sylvania I am not so sure about. The dividend cuts into to their expansion plans and if you are paying a dividend as a company, you generally AREN'T expanding, as paying a dividend in smaller companies stops growth.
Yep, Jonah is right. If we get a high chromium particles sent to a smelter, you pay a chrome penalty fee, as chromium ruins a traditional smelter, as it doesn't go high enough to burn off the chromium and it turns in to a high chrome **** that tends to stick to the sides of the smelter and can cause uneven temperatures and even cause blow outs and loss of control of the stag through an inadvertent spillage of the molten ****.
Because Jubilee takes all the fine chrome out that previously would have caused the chromium penalty fee and turned it into a saleable product, and because of this, it is my understanding that we have never paid the Chromium penalty since we got Inyoni running with the fine Chrome processing part. So we benefit threefold from the fine chrome processing part.
1. We generate EXTRA chromium we can sell.
2. We don't pay a chromium penalty fee and lastly and most importantly
3. By reducing the amount if chromium in the PGM concentrate, we literally are saving money in transport and processing costs , as we are reducing the amount of material that requires transport and processing to a near minimum by the owner of the smelter.
I have said this multiple times on here that the fine chrome processing part is absolutely brilliant and it needs going to all other processing hubs to further refine and reduce our transport and processing costs to and at inyoni.
Gotreal, if those posts are backed up with facts, then it is part and parcel of a free board. If I post thoughts or opinions, I state as much so that I am clear on the matter. Yes, I have posted what could be construed as negative or BOD bashing on here, especially in the aftermath of paying off all historic debt, BUT sometimes it pays to listen to a negative post and so what if Homey is posting disparaging and snipey comments. He is not as bad as another recent poster and I do feel on occasion that Homey has a point with his comments, not the supposed insulting or snipey ones, but if he wants to bash his investment that is his choice and there is nothing you or anyone else can do about it because, unless you uses ****** language, as a certain aforementioned poster did, it is a free speech board and whilst you might find it annoying, he is entitled to his point of view and to express it accordingly.
Yep Troajan,
I couldn't and can't understand that either, especially with Jubilee able to extract such wealth from tailings let alone ROM.
I was looking to get back in to them once the problems ARE sorted out, but I really do worry about the Blackrock Loan being a massive drag on the company.
Whatever your opinion on the company, be it good or bad, we are all here to make money, some will do it by trading, some by holding long and possibly even averaging up to hold more, whatever the game, we are all here to make money. I don't care if people have a negative opinion of Jubilee, so long as they back it up with facts. Homey IS entitled to his opinion and on some points he is right. We were promised no more dilution, but we got more dilution. Yes, it cleared all the historic debt and yes it was known about debt, so technically no more NEW shares were issues, but it was still a dilution after no more dilution was supposed to happen and YES, we will be in a better place once we know WHO is taking over as Chairman, personally I hope it is a big name, but we shall see.
Additionally I agree with most of the rest of you. I think that we are on the cusp of becoming a billion+ pound company in short order and that this industry that we have in effect made our own will become one worth tens of billion pounds a year, and we might even see our share price towards a pound and over, without a consolidation, if we stay a company that doesn't get bought out for our tech and expertise.
However, regardless of what people say about the company, both good and bad, let's try to keep it civil this board is a good board, now a certain someone has left it alone and we should welcome ALL opinions because all opinions are valid.
If you want proof I went to an AGM of a little AIM company who mine tungsten in Spain. I listened to the Chairman and was throughly enthused by the sales pitch. Later on, I got chatting with a REALLY rich guy who was looking to invest in the company and the chairman was keen to have him on board, so the chairman wandered over and they began chatting and the rich guy was asking REALLY probing questions, such as what happens if this and what happens if that. It was stuff that I, honestly hadn't thought of, such as the weather and flooding, etc. We'd done a shed load of research and found out that flooding occurred on occasion. The chairman seemed non plussed by these questions and just said everything had a plan without really elaborating. Anyway, it rranspired that there was a lot of rain and the water dam flooded and prevented the company getting to the good ROM for a long time, efficiencies were terrible, etc and they didn't make anywhere near the levels they proposed they'd make. Luckily I had sold out of the company on a bit of a spike and made a bit of money, but not a whole lot for the amount of time I held those shares. The company in question is now on a suspension, so YES, both positive and negative posts and opinions are healthy for a company, so long as they are backed up by facts rather than just a negative effort trying to make something happen for your own gain.
Yep Jonah, it would be quite ironic if we went back to Smokey Hills after all this time, wouldn't it? In all honesty, it was the thing that brought me to Jubilee in the first place and been here ever since and yes that does include the Middleburg debarcle when we were looking potentially at selling power to the ESKOM, as for the due diligence, it would be nice to buy the entire of the Sail Group and get the mines and infrastructure outright, if cheap enough. We can then sell the mines to someone else and have them potentially mine it for us, under the proviso that the ROM and spoil goes through the Jubilee enhanced processing plant and we get the PGM material for ourselves. I only say this, as it means that we have more supplies to our processing plants on both limbs, as they have 2 mines on the Western Limb and one on the Eastern Limb and prevents us losing out on more supplies moving forward. Yes it will be a liability in terms of the balance sheet, but diversity of supply is needed for further expansion in SA. As for the transport of the sulphuric acid, I guess it depends on the concentration that we can achieve from the smelter and what we can transport it at and the level required for the 300 dollars per tonne. Say for example, if we can get 20% concentration straight off the bat and the 300 dollars a tonne is at 20% concentration, then it would make sense, if it was 20% and required a 100% concentration, then we'd have to refine it further and that might not be cost effective, but imagine if we got 20% concentration and only 5% concentration for it to make the copper sulphate and we could concentrate it to 100% for transport and then dilute it back to 5%, then it probably would make massive sense, the unknowns are the price that the sulphuric acid concentrate needs to be at for the 300 dollars a tonne or for making the copper sulphate or the costs for concentration for transport and transportation costs.
First off, I have been looking for care and maintenance sites with processing for Chrome over on the Eastern Limb for a while now and it wouldn't surprise me if we get the processing infrastructure at Smokey Hills mine, which has been under care and maintenance since about 2016. Those of us that have been here a long time will remember the proposed takeover of PLA, which at the time owned the Smokey Hills mine and infrastructure. The takeover RNS was in February 2013 and the cancellation of the takeover was in March 2014. Since then the mine has operated for a few months at a time by various entities as is currently owned by The Sail Group, but as far as I can see, it hasn't produced anything since 2016, which is a long time to be under care and maintenance and would be a massive liability on the Sail Group's balance sheet. It would be a brownfield site, so not adding further infrastructure to a greenfield site and if the Sail Group ever got the Smokey Hills mine or their assets run through a Jubilee Metals processing hub, they would be far better off and with them being a Chrome producer only, the synergistic nature of both businesses would be met.
Also and bear with me on this one, why don't we based on the Eastern Limb expansion for a further 20,000 ounces of PGM material make a small conroast smelter? A by-product of a conroast smelter is sulphuric acid, which is currently trading at 300 dollars a tonne, so we can either transport it to Sable or we can sell it to the market. I know that people will say, 44,000 ounces isn't enough PGM material to allow a smelter to be made, but why can't we make a conroast smelter and smelt our own PGM material and ANY excess smelting time can either be to smelt our own ferroalloys for sale to the market OR to take on other companies PGM material at a slightly discounted rate to the majors and produce even more PGM's for the market. With the Sulphuric acid by-product being sold or utilised for our own need, we would be producing little to no waste at all and we'd maximise the profits available to Jubilee and also we'd be maximising our ESG creditials.
Anyone else have any thoughts on these two thoughts?