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#genuinelypitiful
When you say retail, who are you comparing Boohoo too. Compare like with like for real comparatives.
I was talking about JD and Next and you full well know it. I forgot you are never wrong.
Give your ego a rest T4G.
Boo is a growth company and both the others pay dividends - Boo stopped growing, got hurt when shops opened up and having a bunch of scandals hanging over them. The list is pretty long but I am sure you don't need me to spell it out. Jongle and co will do it for me.
T4G, you just blame the shorters and MMs time and time again and no retail is not down 1%
Jd sports and Asos both down 3.5%
T4G - you are a broken record mate, 'Got to hand it to them tho, 5% down on 2.5m shares traded is shameless even by MM standards.' The entire board has told you many times that the fall in share price in not just because of the MMs and shorters. It is market sentiment - the entire market is down and retail stocks will react more to it because of their beta https://www.investopedia.com/investing/beta-know-risk/. Furthermore, Boo is highly exposed to the UK market and the falling £ doesn't help them with purchasing power.
Something that could benefit Boo is the introduction of 'investment hubs' which will benefit from certain tax breaks.
The corp tax cut is definitely a positive, as is the cancellation of Employers NI which was also confirmed today
"Yesterday, we introduced a Bill that means the Health and Social Care Levy will not begin next year… it will be cancelled.
The increase in Employer National Insurance Contributions and dividends tax… will be cancelled.
And the interim increase in the National Insurance rate, brought in for this tax year…will be cancelled.
And this cut will take effect from the earliest possible moment, November 6th."
Main things I got from this budget
- Chancellor Kwarteng has announced the reversal of the National Insurance rise of 1.25% from 6 November and confirmed that the Health and Social Care Levy that replaced it will also be scrapped.
- Cap on bankers' bonuses removed
- Corp Tax will not rise to 25%, remains at 19%
- VAT-free shopping for overseas visitors
- No rise in Alcohol Duties
- SDLT nil-rate band doubled to £250k (basically means saving of £2.5k on buying a property)
- Chancellor announces basic income tax rate of 20% (on earnings £12,500-£50,000) will be cut from 20% to 19%
Additional rate of income tax of 45% (on earnings over £150,000) will be abolished - both from April 2023
- IR35 abolished
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-growth-plan-2022-speech
https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/the-growth-plan-2022-tax-related-documents
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/stamp-duty-land-tax-reductions-for-residential-properties
Ridiculous Boohoo even invested in RevB in the first place given the lack of cash and now a profit warning. This is bad reading. The funny thing is that BDO helped RevB with the IPO and an old auditor who worked there for 5 years is in the Group Reporting Team at RevB (check out Matt Grainger). Incompetence to another level. Ohhh and Marble Bar work in the same building as BDO and are also their audit clients .... Conspiracy theory (2+2=5)
Today, the Company announces that BDO LLP ("BDO"), the Company's auditor, has written to the Board and identified a number of serious concerns that have arisen during the course of its work on the FY22 audit regarding, amongst others, the Group's ability to provide sufficient and accurate audit evidence in respect of a number of key audit areas and the validity of certain commercial arrangements entered into by the Company. BDO has indicated that, at the present time, it is not able to sign an audit report in respect of the FY22 accounts.
BDO has further recommended that the Board appoint independent external advisers to undertake an independent investigation regarding the concerns raised and report their findings to an independent committee
Norges, T Rowe and Jupiter have made massive losses so wouldn't really listen to them to be honest.
Jupiter is distressed and selling assets at huge discounts and T Rowe had large investments in Asos and THG and have subsequently reduced.
L5 where do you get the -16.3m figure from?
Shorts are playing an incredibly dangerous game for sure - the banana skins this week were
1) FED rate hike - 75 basis points as expected and no suprises but hawkish FED was offputting
2) BOE rate hike - 50 basis points - did not succumb to 75 points which is positive
3) Mini Budget tomorrow will undoubtedly free up more funds for individuals - low tax, high growth will be Liz Truss' mantra - she will be pro business and therefore expect lower energy bills (price cap), low corp tax, lower income tax and potentially lower VAT/ SDLT - all of this was an unknown when the majority of shorts were in place
4) Boohoo DC in USA has gone under the radar and launching 3 months earlier than planned
5) CMA probe is likely to come to nothing as the Boohoo ready for the future tagline and what qualifies is clearly stated on their website - there was no misleading there - if 20% of materials are sustainable, it meets the 'ready for the future' criteria
6) Students are back - Freshers week would have been low key last year because of the pandemic but students are back in numbers and northern birds love Boo
7) People forget that the UK economy is full of people who use cheap credit and live paycheck to paycheck - the average person really isn't disciplined enough to save money if they haven't done so before - they are likely to just keep adding to the debt pile!
The BOD have set the bar extremely low compared to previous years when it comes to the sales growth they need to achieve and the EBITDA. The Kourtney Kardashian Collab did not have a like for like last year and Boohoo also appeared on NYFW - big stage. They really have to screw up hard to not hit the sales growth target.
In the last update, the share price suffered because of falling sales - this should really not be the case this time. They also mentioned that they were better controlling inventory and had a more flexible supply chain (so showing that they had learnt from prior period mistakes) + they introduce the return fee - I can't see loyal customers turning away and that too, students get Premier for free! Hence, fully expect better margins this time round!
They really need to nail the narrative or they will underscore their own downfall.
On the flip side, obviously hedgefunds have an edge as they wouldn't take such large positions for no reason and would know more than an average investor like me (i.e. would monitor factory orders/ raw materials/ potentially interview leavers) and that does concern me - how can so many different outfits be so sure that the share price will fall further from here? What don't we know?
920,000 businesses will see a cut in National Insurance bills, with 20,000 taken out of paying National Insurance entirely due to the Employment Allowance, which rose in April 2022 from £4,000 to £5,000.
In particular, many small and medium businesses (SMEs) – who employ over 13 million people in the UK – will see a cut to their National Insurance bills. Next year this will be worth £4,200 on average for small businesses and £21,700 for medium sized firms who pay National Insurance. In total 905,000 micro, small and medium businesses will benefit from 2023-24.
are you sure t4g?
A 1.25% rise in National Insurance will be reversed from 6 November and the government will axe a planned tax rise to fund health and social care.
People who earn more than £12,570 a year pay NI, and the more they earn, the more they will benefit from this change.
For example, somebody earning £20,000 will save about £93 a year, and somebody earning £100,000 will save £1,093, compared to now.
- I am checking whether this will also apply to Employers NI - if it does that's another tax saving for Boo
Something which is widely rumoured is the reversal of the rise of CT rates from 19-25% which will benefit business + rumoured reduction in IT rates by 1% earlier than expected + potential reduction in VAT.
Add that to the energy price cap and the £400 energy rebate - people's pockets should be in a great position pre Xmas.
As long as Boo provide positive forward guidance, taking into account the above, then we should get a decent rerate.
Future Outlook is important to see impact though
No one cares. Post on the trakm8 board.
How can there be a dividend payment to the directors? Dividends would be paid to the shareholder of the company and that too, there would need to be distributable reserve to allow for this!
The CMA are toothless - they won't issue a big fine as it will be stuck in the courts and they are a government body - if Boohoo has played by the rules (they had ample warning and time to ensure they complied) then nothing should come of it.
The 8% shorts are most probably opportunistic on the fact that retail is being hit hard - a poor set of results will drop the sp by potentially 20/25% but as I mentioned before, shorts will then be in dangerous territory as there will be a fight to close; given the company has historic little debt and has in fact invested heavily into DC's, automation, collabs, PLT resale market and RevB, although there may be a capex cash burn, I can't see them going bust as they are comparatively lower leveraged then other companies.
The only account here that speaks logic is Goldenyears - the rest are wishful thinkers. The truth is that no one knows what MM's strategy is. There needs to be proper governance, control, accountability and strategy. Right now, none of these exist and MM is a loose cannon who, after the investor call, I couldn't trust.
Far too much speculation on here and people like City Spy should be taken with a pinch of salt - he/she like the rest of us is deeply underwater.
The strange thing is, if Boohoo does deliver some profit, no matter how small, would it then be considered a value stock? The average P/E of the S&P is 25. If you look at 2021 & 2020 EPS for Boohoo it's 7.25p & 5.35p.
Hence if it still does manage to turn a profit in this environment and things improve going forward (higher sales/better margins as a result of lower returns, lower input prices and US DC) the share price should re rate quickly.
Hence, next week is important to get a sense on the direction Boo is heading. If they manage to meet expectations, I think that's fantastic news especially in this environment as soon as things improve macroeconomically, the share price has the potential to fly.
In short, and easier said then done, if they can control their costs, inventory and returns and come back to the levels of margin in the medium term as they anticipate, there is no reason why this shouldnt rerate massively!
1 week to go!
At say 30p a share if it reaches that, then it does become a takeover target and two things coils happen.
Shorts would be happy with their gains and close their position/ US buyer (maybe PE) buys it on the cheap and at a discount because of the stronger dollar. It would make perfect sense for a US buyer as that is a massive growth market with progress being made on the US DC and with recent US Collaborations getting US media coverage. PE would be confident that by changing management they can achieve a large multiple return.
So either way, even if results aren't great, which will be frustrating, I can't see the share price staying low for too long just because of the opportunity it presents a US buyer who is cash rich.