location11 Jan 2007 00:21
The proven 3.4tcf Sampaguita field is a little over a hundred miles from the 4.3tcf (plus) shell field which in turn has a 500km sea bed pipeline supplying 3 power stations (30%of Philippine needs)and a gtl plant on the most populated island. It is difficult to envisage any major industrial project being allowed on beautiful Parawan, so assuming Shell aren't interested or can't accomodate more gas flow, perhaps an 800 km independent pipeline may need to be laid to another mainland site. The shell field was developed when gas prices were around the mid to low $2/btu, its now around$6, although the Philippine government control the price more strictly than a free market. Nevertheless at current values the 800km pipe looks viable compared with the 500km one at the time of construction. The upside to this one makes the 4.3tcf Shell field look positively small. I therefore argue the likelihood of this becomming commercial as high. In addition they are fast tracking their coal mine which should produce 300,000t next year. There are further gas leads on joint venture properties much closer to the population centres. And the price is pre gas discovery. I have got to rate this as a buy.
P.S. ihavenoclue....DYOR!!!!