The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Picked
You probably read JM has 2m shares right above under director deals.
Sometimes you have to be economical with the truth. Your example of a placing. The deal must have all but completed so technically there wouldn’t be another one. That is misleading, very true, but would you rather it were announced before the legal RNA? Wouldn’t that have been far far worse? Of course it would!
It’s not the job of the management to manipulate share price in the crazy AIM market ! It might temporarily please short sighted PI’s but the job actually is to run the company for share holders generally and over longer term.
I think the bond holders are taking advantage of this and they’re running the show right now. They know more than we do. It seems they’re selling their capital to gain a loss and accumulating loads of interest payments in shares. Maybe the joint venture so called partner is aiming for a stealth take over! We won’t know till it happens. Until the current works are complete and production figures are in it’s likely to keep going down. We either choose to sell and take our loss or hold on for some bounce back up. It’s going to be a loss unless we buy these cheap shares which only feeds the ability of bond holders to sell there bonds on the market. Leeching!
It’s a private conversation and means little but personal reassurance to you. There is no guarantee here. The monthly charge was obviously correct when there was no correction that day and the nature of the agreement indicates the belief it will be paid by then. Note the word belief. Not fact. With an agreement like this of course they will do everything possible to satisfy it. That doesn’t mean when the time comes it’s guaranteed. It is not and no one should ignore that fact.
Thank you for your input, Hallowed. I have seen companies shaft PI’s and I was one of those in Equator exploration which still is ongoing! Absolutely right to raise all alternative possibilities and consequences.
I don’t post here much these days. I described opinions as spurious because even if they happen later to be correct they are most often written with unhelpful motives.
A limited placing is possible however it will be avoided if it can be. I cannot see the management thinking financing a drill on Topaz at these prices is remotely sensible.
Another suggestion of selling Duyung is equally dodgy. Of course we need an agreement to take gas and it seems to be taking a while, however the drill on Jade has Duyung still there to fall back on and save the company. Selling to finance Topaz would remove any genuine back up and it really would be a gamble on Topaz or bust. Who would give anything more than a token punt to such a gamble? Not me for one.
Selling Duyung to me would be as good as giving up and get our payout as capital return.
They need a JV partner in my opinion which will mean a much smaller % but also a more realistic risk.
At P10 this is possible. They are going to review the information they’ve gleaned from Jade logs and decide on their plan for this block. This could range from giving it up, to going ahead with Topaz or / andPearl alone or with a partner or remotely possibly selling it.
Until the management have done their review and announce it I don’t believe any ramping on this.
I’ve been a shareholder here for many years since two weeks after IPO. I also do not believe the assertions against management here. Possibly one of the few AIM companies where the largest shareholder is the CEO. I’ve heard it all before. Seems people hold grudges over previous losses or want to buy cheaper or want to sell for more.
All spurious claims IMO
Management here are heavily committed to this company. Much more so than most. They may have been over excited but to say unethical is untrue. There was no personal benefit to stating they believed the gas cloud increased COS. It’s easy in hindsight and whether oil was found or not, we would have gloating by someone! I think they will take a very close look at Topaz now in this new light. Finances are going to be a challenge. Has there been news on the 2m scammed? Hard choice for holders. Cut and run or wait for the next episode. TK has 88.8 m shares. I’m sure he has comparable interests to shareholders. I have half my investment and 3/4 of my shares still in here and frankly would not know how to recommend honestly what course of action to take. Currently inclined to watch and wait.
Anyone who holds long term shares would be sensible to protect their holding by taking up the offer. It maintains market share and value. I’ve taken up mine.
This is not the same motivation for traders who are looking for short term gain. They would either buy open market or hope for a failed uptake and a lower price.
His dental work I think ;)
I’m not going to disagree I can see 6p if no news is forthcoming and the deadline gets closer That should be obvious It should also be obvious though that a farmout deal ( and of course depends on the deal) could cause a very sharp reversal north. Seems politicians and traders only give facts that support their position! ;)
The share price in this bear run will want to test new lows. It’s how it works. No one knows for sure when that will end. The longer it is before China farmout is announced the more it plays into the hands of people whose investment strategy is to short stocks either as part or their only specialty. There’s no difference essentially between the two extremes. One pumps the highs and the other the lows. Both appear fortune tellers at different times. Uncertainty will be and is being exploited. That should be no surprise. No one with your interests at heart would recommend a stop loss on this kind of stock in this situation . Market makers job is to keep liquidity and trade the aim market. A stop loss is saying you’d accept 6p and can be used to lower the price to 6p to trigger the trade. Stop losses imo are fine on main market traded shares because trades are matched However sensible limits on losses are advisable to be self set and disciplined Stop losses help short positions in this situation. People often complain the company isn’t doing anything to shore up! Like they can bring forward a company changing announcement. There are those who do but I can’t think of a case where it’s helped long term. So for me I am happy the management focus on their real job.
Sp is behaving normally as far as I can see and no they don't owe it to shareholders to waste time trying to shore up the sp just to keep shareholders happy one moment only to disappoint them the next.. They are doing what they should be doing which is running a business. The only sp which count are the ones when we buy and sell.
Not posting is not an indication of lack of interest. Those of us who are genuinely interested as opposed to being led this way and that by over indulged hype or pessimism have learnt to ignore these ups and downs when waiting for long term investments to come to fruition. There have been many months if not years of no posting on this board which had no bearing upon my interest one way or another. Most of us find the wait more pleasant when the sp is high of course, but a low sp doesn't mean we necessarily have it wrong. We are all wise in hindsight. Moaning about it has never helped anyone! Make your decision. Re evaluate in the light of real evidence including charts if thats your thing. don't look back..... All any of us really ever have is today.
I cannot tell personally if this will go lower. i cannot tell if it will significantly rise within the next few weeks. I believe there are rises in the not too distant future which will make the current sp look a steal. it doesn't appear like that now, but thats what makes the ride so interesting!
Seems the bears are in control as was inevitable and the 8p range needed to be visited. However, I am supportive of TK and his handling of this. I've been around long enough to know no one posts here without a personal agenda of one persuasion or another. Human nature doesn't change and the pendulum swings from one emotion to another enabling profits to be made by those who get it right. Among the truths that may be told, there are deliberate misleading words such as fair value, suspect , promises etc. designed to squeeze the last bit of positive or negative out of the sentiment.
TK is obliged to report the information he receives. It isn't his place to second guess.
You are absolutely right Didso, there are no guarantees on anything. Especially in oil and gas! Nevertheless, 'challenged' as they may be, it seems companies are interested in the chinese discovery as we can see oil is being recovered nearby. Due diligence takes time so why think theres going to be quick news? SP is not so much a reflection of true value but more a snapshot on current sentiment on perceived true value. Only time will find what true value is, when dividends flow, if it isn't sold off before then!
We might see a lower price yet but my advice is simple and obvious. Don't sell at the bottom! Especially when the potential is so great!
They�re working hard understanding the migration pathways. There will be smaller pockets of migrated oil which may prove cheaper and easier to extract and it often pays to do them first! There Is a lot to play out and now is not the time to lose heart. Maybe a good time for me to sell some and buy back in the isa !
Uplift in resource is good news for sure. Everyone knows why the sp hasnt moved much? Better enlighten me as I think there are alternative views. One thing Im sure of, its got nothing to do with Dempsey. The rise we had from Dempsey was on its own merits and it was hyped. So its lost the Dempsey impetus. Dempsey isnt going to lose money, its going to at least cover costs. It remains to be seen if it can be highly lucrative or not. Let that one play out in its own time. As for China, the big potential! The market already knew the resource from the earlier rns so why would an increase make a massive difference? The market isnt valuing China much yet. 30% extra on nothing is nothing. On 10 p its 3p, so maybe it will recover a little in the coming days. IMO the market doesnt value the resource much because it sees the reality of extraction currently as a high risk. Time scale is short. Rules are enforced strictly. Theres every possibility this becomes lost money and benefits only cnooc. China doesnt make life easy for foreign companies does it! However, I have high hopes because in Gaz we have someone who has much experience of and good relations with the Chinese oil industry. Hes come to eme because its a vehicle with low mcap so he can make very large sums from success. Its no guarantee. I still see this as high risk venture but also I think eme is worth 10p on current assets so really not much risk to lose money any more after the success in Indonesia especially. China will cause excitement if news of a definite achievable plan for fulfilling all the terms of obtaining the permit Is shown and that excitement will be commensurate with the deal eme can get for itself! Exciting times ahead I hope!
I know how you feel I have been in eme since it�s conception and the hype over glantal! I lost a lot in that failure as did many others. Followed by a successful oil find but mechanical failure making the well obsolete. AIM is volatile so yes, you can see very dramatic oversells and overbuys. In perspective of current possibilities the price currently is low imo so I would not worry about just 40% down. Maybe rathole is right and it drops more. Maybe he�s wrong. He�s playing a game, remember that. He�s latched onto a weakness because it�s known in the Dempsey formation locally to be tight. The market though, not rathole will decide. For what it�s worth my son is in at over 20p. He�s not worried though. Myself, I�m lucky to have a relatively large holding at a very low price so maybe too easy to be calm for me compared to you.
Yea if you follow that through mathematically you are correct. You could look at it as three chances out of ten though to get success in China. It�s not so bleak when there�s oil proven in the same formations locally. It�s a risk but the rewards could be excellent for us. Didso you haven�t bought badly. You will make money so don�t fret. This is an AIM share and volatility works both ways. Too positive to too negative. Indonesia was successful don�t forget and looked good. California will not lose money for eme in worst case and should fracking be successful there will be better designed production wells in future. Rathole has found a weakness to exploit and he enjoys doing exactly that. It was always going to be a tight formation and a bit of a gamble. A gamble worth taking. Dempsey is not a sensible reason to allow negative sentiment to dominate.
Not alone... nice to see it shoot back into the blue.
Forum Energy, the UK incorporated oil and gas exploration and production company with a focus on the Philippines, today confirms that the Philippine Department of Energy has granted the Company's request for an extension to the second sub-phase of Service Contract 72 ("SC72"). The deadline for completion of the second sub-phase, comprising the drilling of two appraisal wells, has now been extended by two years to 14 August 2015. Further details regarding the Company's plans for SC72 will be made in due course, as and when appropriate. Suppose this means they will be announcing plans for accomplishing this in the not too distant future!