RE: If tungsten is $300 per MTU6 Sep 2018 09:58
Jaf GIT started his post with “If”, as you know and yes, my response was sarcastic and superfluous. I should have left any nitpicking to your discretion and not just assumed that you would respond to it in your typical and inimitable way.
No, you still don't understand the basic facts of economic life. You don't have to wait until WRES actually sells the product, as you sarcastically write, you do though have to wait until there is at least some signs of production. That is why no-one is yet factoring in any large EBITDA figures and the sp is still 0.41p.
There are many things that I do not understand. Obviously, I do not have to wait for product sales. That was only there for comic effect, but do I really have to wait for “some signs of production” and how would I know what the signs of production are? Do you mean all the plant is installed, commissioned and tested? Just interested. If i have to wait for them, I have to know what they are.
You also have to use the production figures that the company have stated, which is not, as GIT used, 270,000 MTU per year. The company figures show 184,000 for 2019, 181,000 for 2020 and 236,000 for 2021.
I also read the presentation. I have been quoting the presentation since it was published and you have been criticising me, often and at regular intervals, for using the ebitda figures therefrom, on the grounds that those were only forecasts! So, now that Mr Masterman has provided an updated estimate of 270,000 in 2019 via his interviews, you choose to rely on the same forecasts that you berated me for using, because it suits your argument.
But of course you know better.
It is not a case of superior knowledge. It is a case of differing opinion. You now choose to accept the figures in the presentation, since you are happy to quote them. I consider this as progress, on your part, even if logically inconsistent with “waiting for signs of production”. No-one can rely on production or revenue until the dirt is processed and sold, as you regularly remind us.
My opinion is simply different from yours, as is my appetite for risk. That much should be evident from our different investment strategies.