Member Info for Justthisonce

Thanks ILTS- I think you're right and that the choice is between not buying and buying and holding through the period of suspension, depending upon your view as to what the ultimate position is found to be. Disappointing in my view that BDO can't complete their audit work before the end of December and thus avoid the shares being suspended- after all they'd originally been happy to disclose the audited results on 28 November which is now over 3 weeks ago- couldn't they have completed their additional work in this period by now enabling the audited results to be released this week and taking away the uncertainty? Giving a date of 31 Jan to complete the audit suggests that they know that there are a few problems here. Anyway I've decided not to invest in Home again and wish you and all LTHs the best of luck here.

Home's dividend on Thurs offers a 4% return on the current SP so is it worth buying tomorrow and potentially selling before it gets suspended at the end of this month? Any views are welcome as I'm really undecided- I owned shares in Home in the past and lost money and it would be nice to recover something but it does appear to be risky with a lot of issues hanging over it.

and the SP continues to fall. Next stop 1p before it goes bust. Must be one of the worst shares on AIM. I feel very sorry for anyone invested in this company. If not invested stay well away.

Neil- I totally agree- this is not tradeable or investable until SP falls to 1p or below as there will shortly be over 400 million shares bought for 1p where current prices offer an immediate good return. In the longer run a cap has been set for the next 3 years due to the warrants to buy shares at 6p. The RNS also referred to the need to raise more funds in Q3 23- at what price do you think this will be at given the 1p price of latest fund raise? This is an absolute disgrace of a company and should be avoided at all cost. Don't listen to the rampers trying to maintain or increase the current inflated price.
Happy Christmas!

This is a disaster for current shareholders and doesn't even look attractive at current prices as no guarantee of not going bust, warrants effectively place a maximum price of 6p per share for the next 3 years, more funds need to be raised in Q3 of 2023 etc. Perhaps a short term trading opportunity if SP falls to 1p or below- otherwise best left well alone.
Only real hope is a buy out but as always the potential purchaser may be best advised to let the company go bust and then pick up the IP etc cheaply.
GLA

Whilst parts of the RNS look like good news re dividend etc the last sentence or so states that the shares will be suspended if the audited results are not produced by 31 December and that it expects this deadline to be missed with the audit expected to be completed by 31 January. Thus the BOD expects the shares to be suspended at the end of December. Hopefully the suspension will only be for a month and that the audit doesn't reveal any significant issues or basis for the shorters' comments. I still think that this share should be avoided as there's simply too much uncertainty surrounding it and it'll take a long time to restore confidence.
GLA

Home is facing a number of downside risks re shorters, legal claims, delays to release of audited results, potential issues with funders withholding funds etc. Also property values are likely to fall as interest rates rise and may in any event fall due to tenants not taking good care of them. With all the potential companies to invest in I'd avoid Home like the plague.
GLA if you're invested here. If not I'd leave it well alone- at least until the audited results are released, which could be some time yet as I imagine BDO are looking very closely at property values, potential missing liabilities and issues re going concern.

GDR is currently valued at £8m. As a loss making, cash burning company, this is effectively the value being attributed to its IP/products. The question is how do you value this and therefore what is a fair SP? How low do you feel this could go? Judging by recent experience it could I feel fall further before any good news is forthcoming.
GLA and have a good weekend.

My guess is that the next news will be bad taking the SP down further. This could be:
- Viceroy response to BOD or new issues raised
- demotion from FTSE250
- further delays with issue of audited results to 31 August or worse still concerns raised by BDO over the previously audited figures. The longer the issuing of the audited results the greater the uncertainty and risk of bad news in this respect and the further the SP will fall.
Care needs to be taken here- don't gamble too much on it.
GLA

The half year results to 28 Feb show a PBT of £38m with £26m coming from an upward revaluation of properties. For the year to August 2021 the PBT was £21m with £14m from upward revaluation. IF the values start to fall (and they easily could with rising interest rates, cost of living crisis etc) then this would severely hit reported profits and dividends paid. For example a 10% fall in property values would hit profits by over £70m, wiping out at least a year's profits. Hopefully BDO will've looked carefully at property values and related financing (are all related borrowings accounted for?). Users have asked where there could be a fraud here- I'd suggest that if there is one then it's most likely to be around inflated property values and/or understated liabilities.
GLA

It's a question of trust- do you believe the BOD or not? Once lost trust is difficult to gain.
There are plenty of other companies to invest in without the issues facing Home so if you're not a gambler then leave this company well alone.
Like Gruyere I lost several £k on NMC and as he said it was a FTSE100 company, with over 40 years of trading, apparently profitable and cash generating with the backing of tangible assets in the form of modern hospitals and with all this audited/verified by EY BUT in the event this was all a giant scam. Hope it's not the same here BUT it could be and I've little faith in BDO as auditors after the mess with REVB and others.
GLA but be careful and don't risk more than you can afford to lose.

IF the published information is proven to be correct then the SP should rise to around 110p- it's level 3 months or so ago. IF however, Viceroy are proven correct then the SP could fall and indeed in the worst case the company could go bust leaving shareholders with nothing. So I see this as a double or quits situation- do you feel lucky? Whatever, at the moment this is a gamble and not an investment.
GLA

I've been watching GDR for over a year now and was invested for a while but sold out in mid 30's at a break even level last Summer. This company is a real dog. It simply continues to disappoint and the SP continues to fall. To date it's had 2 good products both of which are not selling- military and Covid and has one with real potential- AIHL. However, even if AIHL potential is reached (and based on past experience I don't think it will be) further funds of at least £4m and probably closer to £7m will be needed. This represents a high percentage of current MV of £8m and there must be a very considerable risk that these funds will not be raised with the company going bust and a "lucky" company buying up the IP and products for a knock down price but delivering no value to current shareholders. If you're not already invested then I'd suggest leaving GDR well alone.
GLA and let's hope for all LTHs sake that I'm wrong.

You're right Wim. The 28 Feb'22 accounts show net assets (which include properties revalued to that date) of £624m. This compares to a market value as of now of £472m. IF the properties are fairly valued and there are no "missing" liabilities then the SP would need to be 79p to produce a market value of £624m. This implies a potential uplift in SP of almost a third from the current 60p. Potential problems are the damage to Home's reputation of any accounting issues, downward revaluation of properties and a loss in profitability should the REIT rules have been infringed resulting in some or all of profits and capital gains becoming taxable. So there would appear to be a potential upside of 33% or so. Difficult to estimate the potential downside until more information is released but hopefully the current SP reflects all the bad news and represents a buying opportunity. Anyway GLA.

The situation here reminds me of Revolution Beauty which was also audited by BDO. Audited results were delayed and the company was later and is still suspended. Should PI's avoid companies audited by BDO? Let's hope we don't get a repeat of RevB here.
Will be interesting to see the market's response to Friday's late RNS tomorrow- I fear another fall in the SP.
This story will I feel rumble on for sometime- there's rarely smoke without a fire and I fear that the SP will struggle for a while and may never recover.
Be wary here.
GLA

Yes you are wrong- the £7.9m was deducted in arriving at reported profit for 2021. Please go back and look at the accounts for last year and you'll see that I'm right.

Making the provision in the 2021 accounts recognised the fine as an accounting loss in this period. However, the fine has clearly not been paid (and may never be) so the cash has not been paid. So whilst an accounting loss was recognised in 2021 the loss of cash (if it comes to be realised) has not. Another "loss" of course which hasn't been recognised is the loss in reputation and of the CEO should the appeal be unsuccessful.
GLA

Interesting to see RNS yesterday stating that M&G have increased their holding from 13.2% to 14.3%. Hopefully their confidence in the company is well founded. Monday's results will hopefully be good and the SP will rise from here. I'm invested for the long term- as long as no more nasty surprises!
GLA

Yes £7.9m was provided for in the 2021 accounts and reading between the lines this was against KPMG's advice and as a consequence they resigned. This should be the maximum amount of the potential fine and any successful appeal or indeed a settlement for a lesser amount will add to reported profits and improve the financial position. It's worth noting that even taking account of this provision of £7.9m reported profit improved last year. Looks to me like the fall in SP has been overdone and I'll be adding to my position.
I guess the big imponderable is the position of the CEO- he could be going for either personal reasons or as a result of the CDO. However, the business is much more than just the CEO and it should be fine without him.
I'm comfortable to stay invested and indeed add to my position at this level and see what happens in 2023.
GLA

https://viceroyresearch.org/2022/11/23/home-reit-no-place-like-home-reit-thankfully/
See link above to Viceroy research report- I guess this is what has caused the fall in SP. Will be interesting to read Home's response to this.
GLA