RE: To impeach10 Sep 2018 13:13
I suppose I better give my opinion on Glen, given that this is the Glen board. I do however think politics is the number one mover of markets at the moment.
Glen highly cash generative, but highly geared. It's highly levered. To put that into simple terms, it has taken out a lot of debt to fuel it's growth. In the good times the share price will rise rapidly as that debt proves to be a good investment. In the bad times it will drop rapidly too, as that debt proves to be a bad investment.
Right now the market doesn't even know where this is bad times, or whether the trade deal will resolve itself. So we have uncertainty...
I haven't a clue what China is going to do, the ball is in their court. I think it's fair to say that Trump is not going to back down. Has he backed down on any of his major policy since taking office?
And China has a lot to lose by caving in to the US. Over half a trillion in trade it could lose. No doubt there will be deficits with China and other countries. If the US is successful in forcing China to negotiate in the USA's favour, what do you think other countries with their own respective trade deficits with China will want to do?
A pure guess, I don't see it resolving itself anytime soon. I underestimated China before, I thought they've cave in before the EU. Albeit the EU hasn't actually caved in as no deal has actually been made, just an offer... which was rejected by Trump already.