RE: Still not a buy yet6 Jul 2016 22:44
OldSchool,
I use google mainly to find the market moving news, and I use the search function that allows the isolation of news to a day, week or month, that gets me the most recent news affecting the markets by using keywords in relation to the share, sector, country or whatever. If a share or sector rises or falls substantially I find the reason first. Right now the main reason the mainly UK focused banks are getting hammered so hard is simple...
I'll get straight to the point...
Standard life, Aviva, Henderson, Canada life, Columbia Threadneedle and M&G Investments have all closed their property funds now meaning people can't get their money out. Last time this happened was 2008.
They did this as so many investors wanted their money fearing a property crash. This means a lot of commercial property needs to be sold in order to pay the investors. When this enters the market the supply goes up and with the fear and hence less investing from businesses the demand goes down.
Net result could be falling commercial property prices meaning higher provisions from banks for potential impairments. The banks with the biggest exposure are RBS with 66% of their overall income and Lloyds with 46% of their overall income exposed. Their loan to value ratios are pretty good though.
But the smaller challenger banks have the worst loan to value ratios, and they being hit even harder. The good news is the market doesn't appear to have noticed the Virgin Money has exactly "ZERO" exposure to commercial property lending.
The bad news is, the market may be pricing in the same drop in prices happening to residential property which Virgin Money is very much involved in. That remains to be seen... although there are already signs of London property prices taking a hit, this will need to be monitored closely.
Right now I still don't see a buy signal on the technicals, so I won't be buying until I see it.