Brexit State of Affairs13 Jul 2018 00:41
1. Mogg has tabled 4 amendments to the Governments Customs Bill. This will be voted on, on Monday. This is aimed at either stopping her plan there and then, or if voted down by the whole of parliament, this will determine how many support her, and how many oppose her on the Conservatives side.
2. Assuming the 4 amendments are rejected by parliament as I would expect them to be, as Labour probably wants the entire White Paper voted on after the 7 weeks recess beginning 20/07… to try and trigger a general election by rejecting it… then the Brexiteers will then be in a position to determine whether or not they should trigger a vote of no confidence on Theresa May within the Conservatives. I expect them to have at least 48 letters of no confidence, which is the required number… as at least 70 MP’s are considered Pro Hard Brexit.
3. So at that point they will either trigger or not trigger a vote of no confidence. They need to be sure there’s a good chance of ousting her, because if they lose they can’t trigger another vote of no confidence for 12 months.
4. Assuming they don’t opt for the vote of no confidence, then at some point in the Autumn the whole of Parliament is going to have to vote on Treason May’s plan. Obviously she will have lost her Conservative Majority if a number of Tory MP’s are against her plan, so she would then rely on the opposition. The SNP won’t back her, they’re Anti Tory, and they need to make Brexit look terrible to sell their Independence narrative to the Scottish people. The Lib Dems want a second referendum, and the official stance of Labour from JC will probably be to vote it down as there’s more likely to be a general election then. So it all depends on whether or not Labour MP’s defy JC and vote for it.
5. If her plan survives all of that (which I doubt)… then it’s the EU she needs to negotiate with, which no doubt means giving even more away. Gina Miller has already vowed to make sure Parliament votes on the final deal. So this is not going to be easy for her.