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@Shearclass.... Interesting you've changed your position on mkt cap now when you poo poo'd my suggestion that the valuation was rich a couple of months ago @ c£3bn...so you think its overvalued now?
Your post comments from 31st July below as reminder:
"Disagree on the eye watering valuation, what are you benchmarking it against? There are several other recent UK IPO’s with slower growth rates, lower gross margins & similar profitability or even loss;
Wise : £9.5b market cap, £41m 2020 pre tax profit
Roo : £5.5b market cap, loss making
Dark : £5.3b market cap, loss making
ATG : £1.6b market cap, loss making
Even MOON are a £1.2b cap with profit of just £32m last year
So AWE at £2.8b with 2021 forecast profit of $42.5m rising to $113m by 2023 doesn’t seem at all expensive to me. Trading on a 2 year forward PE of about 30"
Thanks Claire....given the volume going through can only think this is the shorts closing out as you alluded to, have gone against my instincts and averaged down my holding to a price of 275p...lets hope this bounce has legs!!
as per my post yesterday...have seen this type of thing before when I had a holding in PLUS500....got attacked by shorters and negative press comment on validity of business model only to bounce back in days and weeks later. Annoyingly it always seems the shorters get to close out at a profit (is stock being held back so they can close out at these lower levels...I guess we'll never know?) i never normally go into a stock which is so heavily shorted but went against my instinct too early on this one.
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/AWE/statement-regarding-share-price-movement/15154450
Lets see what tomorrow brings though this was a good play from a profitability/cashflow perspective but not if theres any accounting irregularities.....i'm going to have to treat this one as play money now... perhaps reploy whats left into PLUG POWER NASDAQ: PLUG (no PLUG intended ...sorry couldnt resist!!).....One speculative stock to another!!! LOL
Claire is that a hunch...re more bad news? Although a tiny (and now proven to be highly speculative!!) part of my portfolio wondering whether I should recover what I can from these early doors tomorrow!!...
Glad is my original investment is less than 2% of my portfolio (less than 1% now!!)....i took a punt on this after the pullback in Aug, but wish I'd followed my original strategy never to invest while a stock was being significantly shorted!!
This reminds me of a past experience back when I once held shares in the early days of PLUS500 which had negative press comments in FT Alphaville around the validity of the business model and also came under a short attack....I had already made a good profit overall selling the majority of the holding before the attack but got spooked and sold my remaining holding at a small loss only for the price to recover in the following weeks. PLUS500 is now trading around 5x what my average cost was. Always amazes me how the shorters seem to get the upper hand on these thinly traded stocks!!
Won't be selling now at these levels but hopefully shorters will start closing out soon.
On AWE website here https://www.awaveip.com/en/investors/results-reports-presentations/
Suggest watching/listening for those who haven't already...some great insights into the overall market and growth potential and particularly the Q&A section the Exec Chairman's comments (John Lofton Holt) who views the revised guidance as conservative with some potential upside.
both shorters Carmignac and Naya increased again on 21st Sept....can't believe 2.7% of this stock is still out on short positions and still no sign of closing yet...must be expecting another big drop but can't think why given the results?
Yes I believe currently global chip manufacturing is dominated by TSMC, Samsung, SKHynix, and GlobalFoundries. Intel have already stated they going to spend $20bn to build 2 new fabs in Arizona, and another $20bn to build 2 new fabs in Europe. TSMC have also announced plans to increase investment by $100m over 3 years to add capacity. Bodes well for the likes of AWE. One of the biggest holdings in my portfolio is in the semiconductor capital equipment space which I believe has a bright future with all these investments in capacity adds on the cards as the market for semiconductors goes structurally larger through the decade.
Looking forward to those royalties coming through for AWE from 2024 as that will improve margins substantially as those royalties will drop straight through to the bottom line profitability.
Nice to see a beat and raise on the forecasts for 2021 revenues and earnings:) Carmignac took another gamble increasing their short position on the 13th Sept ahead of the results, really interested to see what the shorters next move will be from here....short squeeze potentially on the cards? could drive price higher if they look to close out these positions.
interactive investor has the First Quarter Results on the AWE company information page as 03/09/2021 , tomorrow. Can anyone confirm or deny this to be case as I couldn't find any announcements on results release dates anywhere else?
been watching this closely for a while especially after the recent pullback and took the plunge this afternoon for 1000 @ 333p.
Could have got in lower this morning but frustratingly had to wait until US market to open to free up some cash to reinvest from my Applied Materials holding which has done great for me recently so just hoping I don't live to regret reinvesting some profits here....although I do believe AWE has unique IP and seems to have found a bit of a niche in the market and semiconductor applications are only going to grow exponentially over the next few years, with cloud, 5G, automotive, AI, IoT...the list goes on! Long gone are the days of the PC and mobile renewal cycles driving semiconductor demand. Definitely the riskiest investment in my portfolio (but relatively small) and if growth is as the management (and us investors) the premium valuation will be justified once the company establishes a record of top line and earnings growth longer term...fingers crossed!!
MF uses freelance contributors so to use the term "analyst" should not be confused with Professional Investment Bank/Broker Analyst recommendations who will set price target based on detailed DCF/ROI modelling. Essentially these contributors are just expressing a point of view like many on this board hence the vastly differing opinions.
Of all the US stocks I'm tracking US Futures on opening are all pointing down which says a lot, only 1 [NVIDIA] is up (due to posting stonking results yesterday). I don't own any NVIDIA unfortunately still too expensive for me!
Markets tend to over-react initially so looking to take advantage of big pullbacks to buy into quality stocks...a 10%+ drop is good if you take the long term view....“be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”- Warren Buffett