Member Info for JRich20020

The president is in his village. Not well. He has to sign the decree, it would seem. The last reported decree signed according to the presidential website was early March.
https://www.africaintelligence.com/central-and-west-africa_politics/2022/04/28/decline-in-paul-biya-s-health-strikes-alarm-amongst-inner-circle,109781164-art

There are few to judge by. But look at VOG and how long it took to get an exploitation licence way back and the Matanda transfer. There is also form here too, I think, with extensions.

Beluga would get a share of the Cameroon subsidiary. Not TRP. The subsidiary continues to hold 100% of the licence rather than farming out. Essentially it becomes a joint venture company. Farming out means they don't get the baggage in the subsidiary and they are responsible for taxes on their share and so on.
Beluga cannot take over TRP. For that you need to accumulate shares and make a public offer. Or similar.

We are waiting for the President to put his signature on the decree. Anyone who has seen the timescales for these decrees will know this is around 6-9 months. Sometimes more.

Still pending

https://jusmundi.com/en/document/other/en-rsm-production-corporation-v-victoria-oil-gas-plc-iii-hearings-on-liability-sunday-31st-january-2021

There was also a contingent $100 based on successful drilling.

The so-called farm down agreement includes a contingency that could net Kosmos an additional $100 million if at least two of the first four exploration wells are considered commercial successes.

Now the football is over Biya may be back in his office to sign the Presidential decree this needs. As has been pointed out in earlier posts about transfer of ownership.

According to Jus Mundi the arbitration is still pending. It has to be confirmed by the ICC court and they may simply have a backlog or have asked for clarification . Jus Mundi would have changed the status but can't publish without agreement had it been handed down. That's as I understand it from their and the ICC websites.

A valid point. An extension is rather different to a (partial) change of ownership.

Depends who has to sign the decree. Can the minister sign or only the PM or president? Might be a long wait.

As I've said before there is a fallback position.

Decree will need an official signature. Probably sitting in President or Prime Ministers' intray. I don't think minsters can sign. I haven't found any evidence they do.

There is a fallback position to transfer shares in the Cameroon subsidiary if it drags on.

https://www.victoriaoilandgas.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/VOG-2014_AR.pdf

page 18. Last assessment of potential. Oil and Gas.

In answer to the comment on the other site. I'm well aware of the list on VOG's website but that's only 3% or over and only if notified. Some here were over 3% but have dropped below due to dilution. In any case some of the holdings were only acquired in the last two years so can hardly be 3 years old.
The purpose of my post was more to highlight that around 75% of VOG is held by a small number of holders. How many institutions or other holders Credit Suisse represent is unknown. Perhaps I should have made my purpose of posting clearer.
As some collateral verification the FT tearsheet backs this list up with dates. Of course, this is only as good as their information sources but I would like to think they can verify it.
https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/profile?s=VOG:LSE

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/VICTORIA-OIL-GAS-PLC-39431992/company/

Looks like a current list. Rest of the site info is up to date.

Some are nominee accounts clearly.

Q2 update RNS was last week. Half year accounts end of September.

Worth listening to Roger's interview last year. RSM arbitration comes up around 6 mins in. He seems reasonably confident.

https://www.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcasts-embed/5e6a2fd79672d83b987791cf/?VOG&popup=true

If the insurance claim is ever met, RSM will get their share. For the expenditure they have paid. If GDC lose and have foot some more of the cost and it is subsequently covered by the claim, they will recover it.

There hasn't been a time in the last 12-18 months when they haven't been in possession of price sensitive information or in a close period (or both). Both preclude buying shares. West med alone has been ongoing for at least 2 years. We know it is ongoing but not how much. They do. And there are other areas like Kemerkol, Aksa,also in a similar position. Matanda farmout. The list goes on.

All seems to be progressing smoothly although not at the speed some may wish for.

Some other points.

Insurance claim (outside chance)
Obtain new licence on the part of the logbaba block surrendered in 2011. This was applied for by GDC/RSM in 2018 so a decision should be soon.
Apply for Matanda exploitation licence.
Restart kemerkol production. I'm sure this is part of the plan - they must have spent some time on this before announcing their position earlier - why put the effort in at this stage if that isn't the plan. Last time this came up it was only going to take a few weeks . Replace some plant and turn on the tap. Starts to address strategic weakness of lack of revenue diversity. Don't have to share with anyone either. Original plan was to gradually raise production to 4400 bpd. Around $100m pa at today's prices. Will take a few years but significant I think. After a certain point it will achieve critical mass and development will be self funding . Of course nothing is certain, it may go to the next step and ultimately fail but the omens are good currently.

Addition of Reserves

The licence area has proven C1 category reserves of 8.7 million barrels of oil,
however, C2 reserves have been increased almost 250 per cent to 26.3 million
barrels. Furthermore, the expanded licence area also holds an additional 25.1
million barrels of C3 category reserves.

Reserve Category Original Licence Area Enlarged Licence Area
C1 8.7 Mmbbl 8.7 Mmbbl
C2 7.8 Mmbbl 26.3 Mmbbl
C3 - 25.1 Mmbbl
Total 16.4 Mmbbl 60.1 Mmbbl

Development and Production

The Kemerkol project in the Atyrau Oblast of north-west Kazakhstan has three
productive wells at depths of 1,100 to 1,400 metres, which have tested combined
production of up to 200 barrels of oil per day, although this production is
currently shut in. First production is anticipated for the beginning of next
year and Victoria is aiming to build output to a targeted daily rate of 1,000
barrels of oil per day within Q1 2006.

Through re-entry of these existing wells and with further drilling, the Company
believes that it will achieve the project's initial targeted production level of
4,400 barrels per day within three years of the start of operations. The Company
believes this targeted production level may be increased, following a planned 3D
seismic survey of the expanded licence area.

8 March 2006

First Oil Production from Kemerkol Oil Project, Kazakhstan

• First oil production achieved following re-entry of Well 20 at
Kemerkol oil project in Kazakhstan

• Further re-entry and drilling operations continuing on schedule with
target production level of 4,400 barrels of oil per day planned within
three years

The Board of Victoria Oil & Gas Plc ('Victoria' or 'the Company'), the oil and
gas development company focused in the Former Soviet Union, today announces
first oil production from its wholly owned Kemerkol oil project in the Atyrau
Oblast of Kazakhstan.

First oil production has been achieved at Well 20 following successful re-entry
and re-completion operations. At present, the well is producing 202 barrels of
oil per day from perforations in the Triassic horizon (between depth intervals
of 1,185 metres - 1,194 metres) with no water and only trace gas. At the time of
this announcement, cumulative production was approximately 545 barrels and the
well will be closely monitored over the next few weeks to ensure production rate
stabilisation.

Re-entry and re-completion operations on further shut-in wells are also on
schedule and at an advanced stage. Production from these wells will be
supplemented during the year with the drilling of new wells and production
levels of 1,800 barrels per day by the end of 2006 and 4,400 barrels per day
within three years are targeted.

17 October 2005

35 Million Barrels of Oil Reserves Secured Following Kemerkol Transaction,
Kazakhstan


• Kemerkol Oil Project, Kazakhstan - Total proven C1 category reserves of 8.7
million barrels of oil and probable C2 reserves of 26.3 million barrels
• Transaction completed for under US$2 per barrel of proven C1 reserves
• Licence area increased from 12 to 65 square kilometres - no increase in
Minimum Work Programme
• First oil production expected early 2006

Victoria Oil & Gas Plc ('Victoria' or 'the Company'), the AIM-quoted oil and gas
development company focused on the Former Soviet Union, today announces that it
has secured 35 million barrels of C1 and C2 category oil reserves with the first
completion of the transaction for the Kemerkol subsurface rights contract in
Kazakhstan. Development of the project will now commence and first production
from Kemerkol is targeted for the beginning of 2006.

Total reserves for Kemerkol are now estimated at 60.1 million barrels of oil,
compared to 16.4 million barrels as reported in February for the original
licence area. The 450 per cent enlargement in license area from 12 to 65 square
kilometres has been successfully negotiated after consultation with the Kazakh
Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources by Victoria without adjustment to the
original Minimum Work Programme.

21 February 2005

Acquisition of the Kemerkol Oil Field in Kazakhstan for US$8.5 million

• Proven C1 category reserves of 8.7 million barrels of oil and C2 category reserves of 7.8 million barrels.
• Total purchase price of US$8.5 million in cash and shares.
• Current shut-in production of up to 200 barrels per day to be increased to 1,000 barrels per day by end 2005 with
first production targeted within 90 days.
• Overall target production of 4,400 barrels per day within three years through further development.

Victoria Oil & Gas Plc ('VOG' or 'the Company') today announces that it has agreed to acquire from Saga Creek Gold
Limited 100 per cent of its exploration and production licence for the Kemerkol oil project (Blocks I and II) in
north-west Kazakhstan.

Kemerkol lies in the Atyrau Oblast of Western Kazakhstan approximately 200 kilometres from the north-eastern coast of
the Caspian Sea and close to a number of existing producing oil and gas fields. The Company has calculated the
project's total recoverable oil reserves under Russian C1 and C2 standards at 16.4 million barrels (2.3 million
tonnes), with C1 reserves of 8.7 million barrels (1.1 million tonnes).

Kemerkol has three productive wells at depths of 1,100 to 1,400 metres, which tested combined production of up to 200
barrels of oil per day, although this production is currently shut in. Through re-entering these existing wells and
through further drilling the Company believes that it can achieve the project's target production of 4,400 barrels per
day within three years. First production is targeted within 90 days and the Company believes that 1,000 barrels per day
can be achieved within 2005. The Minimum Work Programme requires further 2D seismic data and drilling of 14 new wells
over a six year period.

MaisyD's comments @ 8.08 this morning. We're both speculating. Nothing concrete. It's been referenced from time to time in reports. See Roger's comments on Page 4 of the 2018 accounts. Obviously a change at the top since then and revised priorities but always possible something unexpected has come on the radar.

In reality probably just housekeeping. The two directors were appointed the same day that the annual confirmation statement was filed. A convenient time to make the appointments.